Sony will want to counter the news of the Microsoft Activision deal.
This state of play will be filled with megaton announcements and at least confirmation of Sony purchasing two publishers.
That is the absolute least I'd expect. If we're getting silly with predictions then add GTA 6 to the list, but I'm trying to keep it realistic.
Nah, they don't give a fuck about MS acquisitions.
They will stick to their already existing previous plans, which pretty likely will be to make a February State of Play focusing on their main games for the upcoming few months: Uncharted movie, Horizon 2, Sifu, GT7 plus some H1 2022 indie games and one or two random Asian games. And maybe Elder Ring and a reminder of the recent Uncharted Legacy of Thieves Collection and GoW PC releases.
So I expect to see many GOTY candidate material but no important game announcements other than some minor indie/Asian F2P game.
They are still supply constrained so wouldn't make sense to rise the hype too much and games like Uncharted refurbished collection, Horizon 2, Sifu, Elder Ring or GT7 will be enough to keep the hype high these months. The xbox fans will get a Crash Bandicoot twitter profile image and the PS fans Horizon 2, Sifu, GT7 and Forspoken releases instead.
Then, once they release these games and other top H1 game (they have Forspoken in late May), probaly in June (probably pre-E3) they will announce and release Spartacus, to reveal the remaining PSVR2 stuff (headset, price, date, other launch window games other than Horizon VR).
Then in a post E3 event (probably July) they'd had a State of Play with some H2 2022/early 2023 stuff as TLOU MP game/TLOU remake/TLOU 2 PS5/TLOU(maybe 1+2?) on PC, and release a new GoWR trailer with a September release date.
Then in August during EVO finals I think they'll announce or showcase many fighting games coming to PS, some of them being exclusive. They may announce there the acquisition of ARC System Works.