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Wkd BO 06•02-04•17 - Amazon princess crowned box office Queen and saves DCEU

Putting The First Epic Movie in the title of your film, as if there will so obviously be more made, is just inviting karma for hubris.


In their defense it's a reference to the book, but yeah it does come off looking overtly ambitious.

Captainunderpantscover.jpg


$38 million for a budget is shocking. I didn't even know you COULD make a big-studio animated film for that much.
 
Obviously, we'll have to wait until next week to get a better look, but where do you think this puts WW on track for total Worldwide gross?

Marvel's getting closer.
But will IM really be the $Bill maker? Can IM really bring SM off the bench and into the $Billy Club just by being present in the movie?

I believe in THOR though. That will be the 1st one to do it w/o IM in it.

You think Thor is going to break 1b?
 

Bronx-Man

Banned
Bingo. Women directors have a harder time getting funding for follow-ups to successes and are tossed into director jail far quicker than men after disappointments.
Shit, let any woman do half the stuff Josh Trank was on during FANT4STIC and see how far they go in Hollywood.
 
Good, good. I'll stay hoping that it manages to squeaked by 700M by sheer force, but I am happy with that.

Yeah I'd imagine DC / WB will be happy with that number as well with a $150 budget. As long as it does at least $600 I think everyone involved will consider it a win coupled with that critic and audience reception.
 
Good for WW.

In their defense it's a reference to the book, but yeah it does come off looking overtly ambitious.

Captainunderpantscover.jpg


$38 million for a budget is shocking. I didn't even know you COULD make a big-studio animated film for that much.

They outsourced it to Canada, and other non U.S. companies. Captain Underpants was actually the first in an experiment by Dreamworks in order to attempt to keep budgets down, by doing films outside of the states.

I think it would have better had Fox had confidence in reviews. They held them out till Wednesday, showing they thought they were gonna be bad.
 
Bingo. Women directors have a harder time getting funding for follow-ups to successes and are tossed into director jail far quicker than men after disappointments.

Patty Jenkins talked about it briefly and how, you know, doing a troubled project like Thor 2 would be disservice to female directors. Because it's like they're playing Hollywood on ironman mode.
 

Prompto

Banned
Wonder Woman is going to end up either being the best or second best reviewed superhero film on rottentomatoes. That's crazy.
 
You think Thor is going to break 1b?

Honestly, I would just be happy with Thor being the best Thor & Hulk movie by a country mile and one of if not the most exciting MCU movie to date
if it could do GotG2 numbers, that would be awesome, but I wouldn't stake anything on $1B, regardless of how hyped I personally am to watch it.
 

Falchion

Member
Great opening, I hope the positive word of mouth helps Wonder Woman have really long legs at the box office.
 
Are Pirates movies really done or do they just need to let China pay for the next one? I mean, Aliens is done. Guy Ritchie is done. But I don't see them putting Pirates out to pasture yet.

2= 1 billion +
3= 800 million +
4= 1 billion +

Honestly unless it just fell out of the top 10 today it won't just die.
They set up 6 to potentially be bigger so if anything they will just be more careful with it when they get to it.
 

Timu

Member
TDK will always be the average rating king.
At this rate it may be for a long time to probably forever, that one was just lightning in a bottle as it's tough for movies to get past an 8.5 average rating on that site anyways, definitely for superhero movies.
 

ArmGunar

Member
Are Pirates movies really done or do they just need to let China pay for the next one? I mean, Aliens is done. Guy Ritchie is done. But I don't see them putting Pirates out to pasture yet.

Guy Ritchie still has Sherlock Holmes franchise
Still hope for a 3rd entry ...
 
Shit, let any woman do half the stuff Josh Trank was on during FANT4STIC and see how far they go in Hollywood.

Probably not the best example. After his toxic behavior on Fant4stic, he got booted from Star Wars and his career is basically over now. He won't be working with a major studio any time soon. Dude's been blacklisted.

But yeah there's no shortage of white men who can only seem to fail upwards, both directors and actors.
 
Probably not the best example. After his toxic behavior on Fant4stic, he got booted from Star Wars and his career is basically over now. He won't be working with a major studio any time soon. Dude's been blacklisted.
.

Trank's trying to get that Al Capone movie going. Fonzo may fall through but the producers are legit and Tom Hardy signed on to play the lead. Thats miles away from being blacklisted.
 
Trank's trying to get that Al Capone movie going. Fonzo may fall through but the producers are legit and Tom Hardy signed on to play the lead. Thats miles away from being blacklisted.
Blacklisted from a major studio. Fonzo, if it ever gets made, will have a budget smaller than Chronicle. He's not recovering from Fant4stic.
 
Pirates made half a billion in two weeks. It's not going anywhere though will likely see budget drop again.

You know what should die? People's assertions that x, y and z are dead in every box office thread as seen over the past three years. This obsession to have films you're not forced to see die is unhealthy.
 
Worth noting that Wonder Woman's DOM-FOR division for its opening weekend estimate is 45-55, so total run guessing as Dom x 2 will likely be accurate enough.


also, Josh Trank's story is actually somewhat tragic in my opinion, because he's clearly quite able to do visual storytelling, and I think his version would have paid off story wise. Not to excuse behavior, but I'll take interesting over safe & boring.
 

kswiston

Member
With the release of Wonder Woman, I thought it would be a good time to revisit my Superhero charts, plotting Worldwide gross vs Production budget.

Previous versions of this chart focused on Post-Iron Man 1 releases, but I have decided to expand the chart to cover all Marvel/DC superhero films released from 2000 to present. Going back further than that becomes less informative due to poor international tracking and a lack of big films outside of Batman and Superman.

To start with, here's the full chart:


Worldwide Gross (minus China) vs Production Budget for Marvel/DC Superhero films released between 2000 and Present.

Code:
	Title						Worldwide minus China		Reported Budget		Gross/Budget Ratio
1	Avengers					1434				220			6.52x
2	Avengers: Age of Ultron				1165				265			4.40x
3	Iron Man 3					1094				200			5.47x
4	The Dark Knight Rises				1032				230			4.49x
5	The Dark Knight					1005				185			5.43x
6	Captain America: Civil War			962				250			3.85x
7	Spider-Man 3					873				258			3.38x
8	Spider-Man					817				139			5.88x
9	Deadpool					783				58			13.50x
10	Spider-Man 2					778				200			3.89x
11	Batman v Superman				777				250			3.11x
12	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2^			750				200			3.75x
13	Suicide Squad					746				175			4.26x
14	Amazing Spider-Man				709				230			3.08x
15	Guardians of the Galaxy				677				195			3.47x
16	X-Men: Days of Future Past			632				200			3.16x
17	Iron Man 2					616				200			3.08x
18	The Amazing Spider-Man 2			615				290			2.12x
19	Man of Steel					605				225			2.69x
20	Captain America: The Winter Soldier		598				170			3.52x
21	Thor: The Dark World				589				170			3.46x
22	Big Hero 6					574				165			3.48x
23	Iron Man					570				150			3.80x
24	Doctor Strange					568				165			3.44x
25	Wonder Woman^					550				150			3.67x
26	Logan^						512				97			5.28x
27	X-Men: The Last Stand				457				210			2.18x
28	Thor						449				150			2.99x
29	X-Men: Apocalypse				420				178			2.36x
30	Ant-Man						414				130			3.18x
31	X2: X-Men United 				407				110			3.70x
32	Superman Returns				383				270			1.42x
33	The Wolverine					374				120			3.12x
34	X-Men Origins: Wolverine			373				150			2.49x
35	Batman Begins					373				150			2.49x
36	Captain America: The First Avenger		371				140			2.65x
37	X-men: First Class				354				150			2.36x
38	Fantastic Four (2005)				328				100			3.28x
39	Lego Batman Movie				300				80			3.75x
40	X-Men						296				75			3.95x
41	Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer	289				130			2.22x
42	The Incredible Hulk				254				150			1.69x
43	Hulk						244				137			1.78x
44	Ghost Rider					225				110			2.05x
45	Green Lantern					220				200			1.10x
46	Watchmen					185				130			1.42x
47	Daredevil					179				78			2.29x
48	Fantastic Four (2015)				168				120			1.40x
49	Blade II					155				54			2.87x
50	Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance		133				57			2.33x
51	Blade Trinity					129				65			1.98x
52	Catwoman					82				100			0.82x
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
	AVERAGE						531				161			3.35x

^Estimated Gross. Film still in release


Notes:

- Since the Chinese box office yields a much smaller percentage take for Hollywood studios (25% vs over 50% domestic, and an average of 40% overseas), and since many films never saw release in China, all of these figures are Worldwide - China. There is still the issue of fluctuating exchange rates, but this at least gives us less skew in modern films (which regularly hit $100M+ in China) vs old films and things like Deadpool/Suicide Squad.

- I am only including films with production budgets of at least $50M. Lower budget films typically have limited overseas releases, and/or a less extensive domestic marketing campaign.

- Logan, Guardians of the Galaxy, and Wonder Woman are still in release, and have had final grosses estimated for this chart. Logan released in Japan this weekend, but is pretty much done in every other territory. As such, my estimate should be accurate within $2-3M. GotG2 is mostly done overseas, but is still making decent money domestically. As such, I'd give my estimate a +/- $10M. Wonder Woman was more of a guess. I assumed $625M WW, with $75M in China to get the number you see. I'd put a +/- $50M on that.



This is the 18th of movie releases since X-Men helped kickstart the superhero genre. As such, I thought that it would be interesting to break the large chart above into smaller groupings by release year. If we use 00-05, 07-11, and 12-17, we get comparable 6 year spans. More below:




Superhero films released between 2000 and 2005

The first span covers the early days of the Superhero revival, including some early sequels in for the three films that lead the revival (Blade, X-Men, and Spider-Man).

Code:
	Title						Worldwide minus China		Reported Budget		Gross/Budget Ratio
1	Spider-Man					817				139			5.88x
2	Spider-Man 2					778				200			3.89x
3	X2: X-Men United 				407				110			3.70x
4	Batman Begins					373				150			2.49x
5	Fantastic Four (2005)				328				100			3.28x
6	X-Men						296				75			3.95x
7	Hulk						244				137			1.78x
8	Daredevil					179				78			2.29x
9	Blade II					155				54			2.87x
10	Blade Trinity					129				65			1.98x
11	Catwoman					82				100			0.82x
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
	AVERAGE						344				110			2.99x

Raimi Spider-Man is head and shoulders above everything else. Batman Begins undoes some of the bad will from the Schumacher days. X-Men is successful, and X2 is met with a favourable upswing. Blade fizzles out. Fantastic Four is surprisingly strong, while Hulk misses. Catwoman delivers the largest bomb the genre has faced in the new millennium (and is the only film to fail and hit that 1x Production budget mark).


Superhero films released between 2006 and 2011

Code:
	Title						Worldwide minus China		Reported Budget		Gross/Budget Ratio
1	The Dark Knight					1005				185			5.43x
2	Spider-Man 3					873				258			3.38x
3	Iron Man 2					616				200			3.08x
4	Iron Man					570				150			3.80x
5	X-Men: The Last Stand				457				210			2.18x
6	Thor						449				150			2.99x
7	Superman Returns				383				270			1.42x
8	X-Men Origins: Wolverine			373				150			2.49x
9	Captain America: The First Avenger		371				140			2.65x
10	X-men: First Class				354				150			2.36x
11	Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer	289				130			2.22x
12	The Incredible Hulk				254				150			1.69x
13	Ghost Rider					225				110			2.05x
14	Green Lantern					220				200			1.10x
15	Watchmen					185				130			1.42x
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
	AVERAGE						442				172			2.55x

This period's most important films were obviously The Dark Knight and Iron Man:
- TDK put Batman back on top, and delivered the most acclaimed superhero film to date. It was just the fourth film in history to hit a $1B gross WW, was the second film in history to crack $500M domestic, and set speed records for pretty much every box office measurement.
- Iron Man kicked off the MCU, which would go on to become the most successful film franchise in history over the course of the next decade. Iron Man also delivered an A-Tier superhero gross (domestically) to what was considered a B-tier property at best. This was the start of Marvel Studios proving that marketing and consistency were more important than well worn IP.

Aside from Iron Man, this period only lays the foundation for the MCU (to mixed results if we are looking at return on investment prior to the Avengers). By the end of 2011 we had people on these forums predicting the decline of the superhero genre due to audience fatigue after Thor and Cap failed to replicate the success of Iron Man.

Before reaching super hero fatigue (tm), foreign audiences ate up the conclusion of Raimi's Spider-man trilogy, while passing on both the Hulk (a second time) and Watchmen. X-Men First Class paid for Fox's treatment of the franchise in the earlier years of this period, and Green Lantern bombed so hard that WB refrained from releasing anything unrelated to Batman/Superman until this past year. Green Lantern himself is stuck waiting at least a decade for another shot at success.

You'll notice that there was a sizable bump to the average gross of films in this period, with only Watchmen failing to hit $200M. Budgets also expanded to match. Outside of TDK and Spider-Man, Superhero films still find Top-tier international blockbuster status elusive.


Superhero films released between 2012 and 2017

Code:
	Title						Worldwide minus China		Reported Budget		Gross/Budget Ratio
1	Avengers					1434				220			6.52x
2	Avengers: Age of Ultron				1165				265			4.40x
3	Iron Man 3					1094				200			5.47x
4	The Dark Knight Rises				1032				230			4.49x
5	Captain America: Civil War			962				250			3.85x
6	Deadpool					783				58			13.50x
7	Batman v Superman				777				250			3.11x
8	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2^			750				200			3.75x
9	Suicide Squad					746				175			4.26x
10	Amazing Spider-Man				709				230			3.08x
11	Guardians of the Galaxy				677				195			3.47x
12	X-Men: Days of Future Past			632				200			3.16x
13	The Amazing Spider-Man 2			615				290			2.12x
14	Man of Steel					605				225			2.69x
15	Captain America: The Winter Soldier		598				170			3.52x
16	Thor: The Dark World				589				170			3.46x
17	Big Hero 6					574				165			3.48x
18	Doctor Strange					568				165			3.44x
19	Wonder Woman^					550				150			3.67x
20	Logan^						512				97			5.28x
21	X-Men: Apocalypse				420				178			2.36x
22	Ant-Man						414				130			3.18x
23	The Wolverine					374				120			3.12x
24	Lego Batman Movie				300				80			3.75x
25	Fantastic Four (2015)				168				120			1.40x
26	Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance		133				57			2.33x
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
	AVERAGE						661				177			3.96x

The declaration of Superhero Fatigue was premature. Avengers in 2012 became the third highest grossing film of all time worldwide (still fifth place 5 years later), grossing over $1.5B. With China thrown in, Iron Man and crew now hold the top 4 worldwide Superhero grosses (though TDK slips into #4 with China removed).

Superhero films went from rarely hitting $300M internationally to passing that with almost every major release. Marvel Studios upped their production to the current pace of 3 films a year, and WB established their take on a shared cinematic universe. The X-Franchise saw a revival in interest (thanks in part to the return of some original actors) and Fox's attempts at R-Rated superheroes were met with big success. Sony on the other hand was not as luck, failing to land their Spider-Man reboot after Raimi left the franchise. That said, other than a relatively cheap Ghost Rider sequel that hit before The Avengers, the only real failure from this era was 2015's Fantastic Four. The Lego Batman also underperformed overseas.

Average worldwide grosses are up over $200M per film without China in this era. If you added in China, the difference would be closer to $300M. At the same time, budgets haven't really gone up all that much, so the average film is seeing a much better return (partially offset by the collapse of the home video market).

We still have 3 superhero films to release in 2017, but I don't see any of them missing $600M.
 

Busty

Banned
Dang. Thanks again to KSwiss (Mr Kswiston to y'all) for once again dropping some box office knowledge on us. His research and analysis is always so detailed and well thought out I feel like I should be paying for it.

Kudos, man
 
I decided to look up how the Sunday drops of the top 5 looked for Sundays where Game 2 occurred and compared that to how the game actually went, to see if my proclamation that WW should increase from actuals was premature:

Code:
[U]Year[/U]             [U]Quarterly Score[/U]                            [U]TV Ratings[/U]           [U]Average Drop[/U]
2016             21-19, 44-52, 62-82, 77-110                 9.8/17(17.49M)      -22.04%
2015             20-20, 47-45, 62-59, 87-87, OT: 95-93      10.8/19(19.17M)      -32.28%
2014             19-26, 43-43, 77-78, 98-96                  9.0/15(15.13M)      -25.44%
2013             22-22, 45-50, 65-75, 84-103                 8.5/15(14.57M)      -34.20%       
2012*                                
2011**           28-28, 51-51, 71-75, 95-93                  9.1/15(15.34M)      -31.96%
2010             29-22, 54-48, 72-72, 103-94                 9.2/15(15.72M)      -28.30%
2009             15-15, 35-40, 65-63, 88-88, OT: 96-101      8.2/14(14.06M)      -28.76%***
2008             22-20, 42-54, 61-83, 102-108                8.5/15(13.50M)      -28.36%
2007             17-28, 33-58, 62-89, 92-103                 5.6/10(8.55M)       -30.94%****
*Game 2 did not occur on a Sunday, and the only other game this year that did was on Father's Day, making any comparisons moot.
**Game 2 also did not take place on Sunday, but Game 3 did, so the data from that is included here.
***The drop here is heavily skewed by The Hangover, which had a -12.4% hold. If we exclude it, the average drop is -32.85%
*****The Sopranos finale aired this Sunday as well, scoring 11.9M viewers.

The data suggests about what you would expect; games that stay close throughout tend to impact the box office more severely while OT is the worst thing that can happen (2013 is the exception, because I guess reality just can't be too nice). The good news is that Wonder Woman is easily the biggest opener that has gone against Game 2 (or 3, in the case of 2011) and seems to have great word of mouth, a combo that often leads to very strong Sunday drops. Lost in the data above is that the biggest hits occur to films that skew male, so since Wonder Woman's audience has a slight female majority, it won't be as impacted by basketball anyway. Still, if you want to see a sizable increase from estimates, you might want to hope for a blowout tonight.
 

Penguin

Member
I'm also curious if there's a bit less intrigue around this series since it's the 3rd year in a row between the same 2 teams
 
Pirates made half a billion in two weeks. It's not going anywhere though will likely see budget drop again.

Worth pointing out, however, that only one-fifth of its gross is from the US market ($115M). Overseas markets ($386M) are doing all of the heavy lifting; without it, the film's gross wouldn't even be reaching its production budget ($230M), let alone breaking even. Pirates as a franchise is getting hit by the same issue Transformers is facing now: the film will need to rely entirely on outside grosses for profit, because the films are now seeing disappointing domestic returns.
 
Pirates made half a billion in two weeks. It's not going anywhere though will likely see budget drop again.

You know what should die? People's assertions that x, y and z are dead in every box office thread as seen over the past three years. This obsession to have films you're not forced to see die is unhealthy.

I mean, that's not very good. A movie like Pirates is expected to make a shit ton in the first few weeks, not what is under expectations.

Domestically alone, it's going to make around 90 million less than Stranger Tides did and that was considering a disappointment. The foreign box office obviously made up for that.
 
We don't deserve kswiston and Biggest-Geek-Ever.

Worth noting that Wonder Woman's DOM-FOR division for its opening weekend estimate is 45-55, so total run guessing as Dom x 2 will likely be accurate enough.


also, Josh Trank's story is actually somewhat tragic in my opinion, because he's clearly quite able to do visual storytelling, and I think his version would have paid off story wise. Not to excuse behavior, but I'll take interesting over safe & boring.

I adore Chronicle and was pretty excited for some of the projects for the some of the projects he was attached to following its success (Venom and Shadow of the Colossus were floated around if I recall. Fant4stic has some elements of greatness in it that I'd love to see him expanded on, but that pre-release tweet was all on him and is about as firm a public death sentence as one can have.
 

Anth0ny

Member
hot take: I feel like the new Transformers might do less than $200m domestic.


it's sandwiched between cars 3 and despicable me 3. will still do crazy numbers overseas though.
 

Prompto

Banned
hot take: I feel like the new Transformers might do less than $200m domestic.


it's sandwiched between cars 3 and despicable me 3. will still do crazy numbers overseas though.
I don't even think that's a hot take. Seems very likely to me.
 
Are Pirates movies really done or do they just need to let China pay for the next one? I mean, Aliens is done. Guy Ritchie is done. But I don't see them putting Pirates out to pasture yet.

Guy Ritchie is already signed to direct Disney's live-action Aladdin.

With the release of Wonder Woman, I thought it would be a good time to revisit my Superhero charts, plotting Worldwide gross vs Production budget.

Dude, you need to get a Medium blog and Patreon.
 
I saw Wonder Woman. I thought it was quite good though not without some shortcomings typical of its genre. Why'd it take Patty Jenkins 14 years to put out another theatrical release after Monster? Is she trying to make James Cameron look like an amateur?

She was hired by Marvel to do GAF's favorite movie (Thor: TDW), left that project (I haven't read enough to know if that was her decision or theirs), and then went to do TV work until this. So the typical Hollywood not hiring female directors is part of it, and I think the Thor 2 thing might have been as well. And I think she might have had a kid in between all that?
 

Anth0ny

Member
Amazing post Kswis


Still makes me laugh that people were crying "superhero fatigue" going into AVENGERS of all films, which pretty much kicked off this golden age of superhero films that we are still living in right now.
 
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