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[PhoncipleBone]

I've actually had similar thoughts for a while now. Though for mine it was a SWAT team or the like in a enclosed space vs coven of witches/Tobeh/Katy.

I think it was after seeing the 4th one on opening night I thought about that. It just seemed a natural way for it to go in my brain.

Funny enough, the girl in 4 went on to star in Supernatural.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

Why is this a Rogue One thread

This community desperately needs Spidey to bring in the money.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

So how many drive by shit posts will we have next week when Spidey does over/under Wonder Woman's opening weekend?

 

[kswiston]

So how many drive by shit posts will we have next week when Spidey does over/under Wonder Woman's opening weekend?

I can only see those if Spider-man is under Wonder Woman.

 

[Gentleman Jack]

So how many drive by shit posts will we have next week when Spidey does over/under Wonder Woman's opening weekend?

It'll probably get kettled into its own thread, mixed with a generous pinch of shitposting about Sony's stewardship of the franchise.

 

[Obliterator]

Why is this a Rogue One thread

We are Box Office GAF / aka might as well be Movies General GAF. We get into all sorts of random Movie discussions

 

[Slayven]

We are Box Office GAF / aka might as well be Movies General GAF. We get into all sorts of random Movie discussions

Hey guys, that Avatar sure was something.....

Spoiler

I don't know why Avatar tangents amuse me

 

[PhoncipleBone]

We are Box Office GAF / aka might as well be Movies General GAF. We get into all sorts of random Movie discussions

Only when waiting for more numbers to post. There is a bit of discussion, followed by KSwiss tables and charts, when daily numbers release.

The best times are once weekend estimates go up and we can start speculating on legs.

Of course, I don't think anyone here expected Wonder Woman to have the legs it has had so far. I know some were estimating a huge gross like we are getting, but not off of that opening weekend. The film just won't stop. It is very, very impressive to see.

 

[kswiston]

It'll probably get kettled into its own thread, mixed with a generous pinch of shitposting about Sony's stewardship of the franchise.

A Spider-Man film opening between $91M and $151M isn't really worthy of its own thread. No records are likely to be broken here.

 

[Slayven]

The best times are when we make fun of Bronsonlee for being a dork

 

[WhiteRabbitEXE]

We are Box Office GAF / aka might as well be Movies General GAF. We get into all sorts of random Movie discussions

I mean, I know, I've been reading these threads for like 2 years haha. I just missed how it transitioned from ranking this year's movies to ranking Rogue One.

 

[LordOfLore]

Only when waiting for more numbers to post. There is a bit of discussion, followed by KSwiss tables and charts, when daily numbers release.

The best times are once weekend estimates go up and we can start speculating on legs.

Of course, I don't think anyone here expected Wonder Woman to have the legs it has had so far. I know some were estimating a huge gross like we are getting, but not off of that opening weekend. The film just won't stop. It is very, very impressive to see.

No one noticed my post with numbers and the future of the Hellboy movie

 

[Obliterator]

The best times are when we make fun of Bronsonlee for being a dork

Yeah, thats always the best

Spoiler

Don't worry Bronson we luv you

I mean, I know, I've been reading these threads for like 2 years haha. I just missed how it transitioned from ranking this year's movies to ranking Rogue One.

I think at some point in here someone randomly included Rogue One in their yearly rankings for films even though it was from 2016 and then we all just latched on / talked about it

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

A Spider-Man film opening between $91M and $151M isn't really worthy of its own thread. No records are likely to be broken here.

What do you think the cutoff is on a preview number that warrants its own thread? $18M?

 

[PhoncipleBone]

A Spider-Man film opening between $91M and $151M isn't really worthy of its own thread. No records are likely to be broken here.

NOT A RECORD!

The best times are when we make fun of Bronsonlee for being a dork

Truly the best times.

 

[kswiston]

I wasn't really expecting my movie rating post to spin off into a 250 post thread tangent, but I guess everyone likes rating things.


Transformers 5 has done alright in the last 5 days. At least compared to already low expectations. It could crawl to $140M.

What do you think the cutoff is on a preview number that warrants its own thread? $18M?

Definitely something higher than the general MCU range. What was GOTG2? $17M?

Bigger than that would be fair. Only the Avengers films (and Civil War) were higher.

 

[Obliterator]

Honestly? I'm really surprised with Pirates. Like, its actually kinda doing ok globally.

Don't get me wrong this franchise is / was a juggernaut so in a way its not surprising but still its doing really solid. I would think off this performance they'll still probably do another entry (haven't seen it but I heard they tease another sequel?)

 

[PhoncipleBone]

Deadline saying Sony is estimating an $80m weekend for Spidey.

Variety saying the same, but other estimates putting it at about $110m.

Now matter how big it opens, I think it is safe to say this won't have Wonder Woman's legs in its favor. That is still defying modern super hero conventions.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

It'll probably get kettled into its own thread, mixed with a generous pinch of shitposting about Sony's stewardship of the franchise.

It'll definitely get turned into its own thread. Someone always decides joining/reading the existing convo in the dedicated weekly Box Office thread is a bad call, and starting a brand new thread just feels better to them, even if it's (usually/almost always) calorie-free.

It's the same thing as a guy seeing a funny tweet, screencapping that tweet, and then tweeting the screencap with an emoji or something.

Sony's lowballing their estimate so it looks better when they land anywhere between 100-115mil.

 

[Obliterator]

Deadline saying Sony is estimating an $80m weekend for Spidey.

Variety saying the same, but other estimates putting it at about $110m.

.

$80 million seems purposefully overly cautionary in case somehow it comes in at the really low end of things.

Given reviews / MCU / RDJ I don't see how this film comes in under $100 million

But yea it would be super unrealistic to expect Wonder Woman legs. Diana has been in almost unprecedented territory in terms of the last decade for Super Hero flicks in terms of legs

 

[kswiston]

WB had $65M for Wonder Woman right up to release. Sony is doing the same thing.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

So, since many think Spidey grosses will get their own thread, do we think we will get one Friday just for the preview showings to start things off?

Yes. I am bored right now.

 

[kswiston]

So, since many think Spidey grosses will get their own thread, do we think we will get one Friday just for the preview showings to start things off?

Yes. I am bored right now.

Unless they are outstanding, I don't see why. People who care are already in this thread.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

I find it hard to believe Spider-Man will open below 100M. If worst comes to it, the 300 million dream is shattered.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Unless they are outstanding, I don't see why. People who care are already in this thread.

It'll get its own thread because it's Spidey and someone isn't going to resist the pull of having the exact same discussion spill out, but with their name as the thread starter as opposed to Slug's.

Like, it doesn't really matter who starts the conversation, of course. But again: It's the same principle as the kid who sees a popular joke going around, and decides to screencap it and then tweet it out.

imadethis.jpg

 

[WhiteRabbitEXE]

Made a chart of everyone's predictions here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SfCuEITMZL4YTSegKelav-sePrLFZJuZJe02vBgvO_4/edit#gid=0

To reiterate, we are gifting steam games to the persons with the best OW predictions. In the event of a tie, the DOM prediction will be used, so please provide at least an OW and DOM prediction if you would like to participate. The deadline is 11:59PM PST on July 5. Please let me know if I made any errors.

Prizes will include Dishonored 2, Doom, XCOM (now 1 and 2 ), and a couple others pending. Whoever gets 1st place will have their pick, then 2nd place will, and so on.

Ah what the hell.

$113m OW
$316m DOM
$585m INTL
$901m WW

 

[igordennis]

Rogue One didn't even come out this year.

Rogue One didn't even come out this year.

I laughed.

 

[Toa TAK]

Rogue One is probably the best Star Wars movie that came out this year.

 

[kswiston]

It'll get its own thread because it's Spidey and someone isn't going to resist the pull of having the exact same discussion spill out, but with their name as the thread starter as opposed to Slug's.

Like, it doesn't really matter who starts the conversation, of course. But again: It's the same principle as the kid who sees a popular joke going around, and decides to screencap it and then tweet it out.

imadethis.jpg

I remember one of our mods shut down the spinoff weekend threads during TFA's opening weekend. We ended up getting that 3k+ thread here, and the average page was a lot more entertaining/civil than what is typically in the stand-alone threads.

All of the follow up dailies, comparisons, and analysis happen in the weekend threads anyhow. If you try to post that in the spin-off threads, it gets ignored, because people are too busy shit slinging after the first 2-3 pages.

 

[hodayathink]

Why is this a Rogue One thread

Any thread can be a Rogue One thread if you try hard enough.

 

[AdventureRacing]

$135m OW
$375m DOM
$640m INTL
$1015m WW

Might as well go big for a slightly different prediction. I doubt that is actually likely to happen but fuck it might as well go crazy.

 

[CaviarMeths]

Super late to the report card party here, but:

Split: B-
Resident Evil: The Final Chapter: F (as in fuck me, that was bad)
The LEGO Batman Movie: B
John Wick: Chapter 2: B+
Get Out: A
Logan: A+
Kong: Skull Island: C+
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: B+
Alien: Covenant: D
Wonder Woman: A-

And not sure what the time zone is on the Spider-Man prediction cutoffs, but if I'm not too late:

OW: $124m
Dom: $323m
Int: $651m
WW: $974m

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

You're in!

Ya'll got 40 minutes to make one and/or change your current one.

 

[kurahador]

LTTP entry:

OW: $113m
Dom: $320m
Int: $689m
WW: $1.09b

 

[Bronx-Man]

OW: $115m
Dom: $345m
Int: $650m
WW: $1.05b

I'm just fucking around with this btw

 

[Obliterator]

Just cause I feel like getting Random and I'm listening to the INCREDIBLE soundtrack right now

Arrival is an absolutely fucking phenomenal film and if anyone in Box Office Gaf hasn't seen it rent it instantly.

One of the most beautiful films I've seen in a while (in terms of cinematography. The fact it didn't win an Oscar for it is a crime)

 

[Messofanego]

Just cause I feel like getting Random and I'm listening to the INCREDIBLE soundtrack right now

Arrival is an absolutely fucking phenomenal film and if anyone in Box Office Gaf hasn't seen it rent it instantly.

One of the most beautiful films I've seen in a while (in terms of cinematography. The fact it didn't win an Oscar for it is a crime)

It was at least GAF's #1 movie last year, so take solace in that Best sci fi film in a long while.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Well Arrival was miles better than The Force Awakens so there's that.

 

[WhiteRabbitEXE]

Well Arrival was miles better than The Force Awakens so there's that.

but how does it compare to rogue one

Any thread can be a Rogue One thread if you try hard enough.

did I do it right

 

[Obliterator]

Well Arrival was miles better than The Force Awakens so there's that.

Yo Arrival is better than most movies, period.

There is so much about that film that is amazing, from the editing, to the acting, to the narrative, cinematography, soundtrack etc.

Top tier film.

 

[WhiteRabbitEXE]

Seriously though, yeah. Arrival was easily one of my favorite films of the year, and objectively it was probably the best (I only don't commit 100% since I'm not positive I'm not forgetting something lol). One of the best sci-fi films I've ever seen.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

And that's the show for the Spider-Man: Homecoming BOgaf prediction contest. Here's the spreadsheet with some analytics at the end (may add some more tonight and tomorrow). And without further ado, allow me to go all in with my own prediction.

Sony-Man does whatever a Sony-Man can for box office

Fifteen years. Six films. Three separate iterations. These are the significant digits facing the Spider-Man franchise, which looks to ignite the box office this weekend and deliver a much needed blockbuster performance for Sony. It is absolutely indisputable the Webslinger is one of the most popular characters in any medium, but the question of the day is whether a decade of poorly received films will prevent Homecoming from reaching tremendous box office heights.

It’s almost pointless to even discuss the history of the franchise, since its accomplished are so ingrained in the box office record books. 2002’s Spider-Man 1 would obliterate any conceivable expectations, with a $114.8M opening weekend, a record that would stand for over four years. It would conclude with $403.7M, handedly the highest grossing film of the year. Despite these incredible heights, the 2004 sequel would dip only 7%, which to this day is the second best retention for a sequel to a $400M+ hit. Thanks to the Spider-Man 2’s reception, the third film releasing in 2007 would again break the opening record, that time with a staggering $151.1M. Unfortunately, a poor reception would lead to remarkably poor legs, and Spider-Man 3 concluded its domestic run with $336.5M (still the highest gross of 2007, mind you). Despite also grossing a massive $890M worldwide, that weak reception would play a huge part in the franchise getting rebooted, with a new cast and new title: The Amazing Spider-Man. The 2012 blockbuster faired quite well compared to the likes of Batman Begins and Superman Returns, grossing $262M domestically. Another weak reception would lead to its sequel, released in 2014, seeing a further dip in domestic grosses. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 would gross a still decent $202.8M, but that’s a far cry from the series’ past (and yes, it once again had a poor reception) and would lead to this week’s reboot.

Under normal circumstances, a second reboot following three poorly received films would be a recipe for an even further dip in grosses. Of course, this is no ordinary reboot. Spider-Man will look to receive a boost from entering the MCU family, and featuring the biggest character in the Hollywood. Sony has not pulled its punches in pushing Iron Man to the fullest in the marketing, and this Spidey’s appearance in Civil War was considered one of the highlights of the movie by many. Even outside of the MCU factor, the marketing overall (while perhaps taking a few missteps) is general more pervasive and effective than that seen by the aforementioned Batman Begins and Superman Returns.

Social media signs has been very strong, with the highest Youtube views of any film this summer and Twitter activity matching Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2. Additionally, reviews are strong, currently at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes and 73 on MetaCritic, each near the top of the MCU. An additional x-factor will be the appeal to the under 25 crowd; Transformers 5 has managed to skew the youngest among live-action blockbusters this summer (51% over 25) with all others drawing an older crowd (58-66%). With Peter Parker portrayed as a high schooler and Zendaya having a massive social media following, the potential is there for the younger audiences to come out in force for Homecoming.

All of this is great, though it is still important to reiterate that this film is following three poorly received Spider-Man films. Regardless of how popular the character is, or how effective the marketing has been, that is a sizeable negative. Especially given the franchise fatigue we have already seen this year, that factor alone may be enough to prevent a nine digit opening. My gut instinct is that will not be the case, and that the film is poised for easily the third highest opening weekend of the year. But if a lower weekend ensues, there is understandable reasons for that.

Even if the weekend is on the bottom end of expectations, the release date will likely guarantee a leggy run. With virtually all K-12 schools out along with the vast majority of college students, the first set of weekdays will be gargantuan and make almost half of the opening weekend from Monday through Thursday. Additionally, the two most anticipated releases of the remainder of the summer (War for the Planet of the Apes and Dunkirk) will both skew very old. Many reviews have lauded the humor in the film, comparing it to a John Hughes comedy, so this may become the top choice for families for the remainder of the summer. Do not be surprised if this film manages a 3.0+ multiplier, rare for the genre (though perhaps less exciting in the wake of Wonder Woman’s historic performance).

Overseas, the Iron Man/MCU factor may end up being even more pronounced. Spider-Man has been an overseas powerhouse in his own right, and no film involving Tony Stark as of The Avengers has grossed less than $745M internationally. Exchange rates will—as they have all summer—put a cap on how high Homecoming will go with foreign box office. I still anticipate it will make a run for the billion dollar club, and early numbers from South Korea are encouraging.

Pre: $16.0M
Fri: $37.8M/$53.8M           
Sat: $45.3M              +19.84%/-15.80%
Sun: $38.0M              -16.11%

OW:  $137.1M             
2nd: $60.3M             -56.02%
3rd: $35.2M             -41.63%
4th: $21.5M             -38.92%

DOM: $435M
INT: $665M
WW:  $1.1B

 

[DarkLordMalik]

but how does it compare to rogue one

I didn't compare to Rogue One since I haven't seen it yet but I doubt it comes close.

 

[hodayathink]

did I do it right

 

[BumRush]

Wow, BGE. Amazing work!!! This is going to be fun.

 

[Pachimari]

We need another Paranormal Activity.

Why did it even end? The budgets were small, and it's not like they lost money on them films?

These were my favorites.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

Wow, BGE. Amazing work!!! This is going to be fun.

Thank you! Best of luck to everyone.

We need another Paranormal Activity.

Why did it even end? The budgets were small, and it's not like they lost money on them films?

These were my favorites.

The budgets did eventually creep up, as did the marketing I assume.

PA6 had a budget of $10M and made $18M domestic and $60M internationally. The latter is pretty good, but the domestic figures were basically a disaster; it was a 45% dropoff from the previous film so it was probably a good idea to end the franchise. Perhaps we'll eventually see a revival, like we are this year with Saw.

 

[AndyVirus]

I'm going to be sad when Spidey's second weekend is bigger than Apes' first.

Honestly? I'm really surprised with Pirates. Like, its actually kinda doing ok globally.

Don't get me wrong this franchise is / was a juggernaut so in a way its not surprising but still its doing really solid. I would think off this performance they'll still probably do another entry (haven't seen it but I heard they tease another sequel?)

Don't even know if it's going to be profitable. Who knows if they're telling the truth with the budget.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Hey guys, that Avatar sure was something.....

Spoiler

I don't know why Avatar tangents amuse me

I always forget Avatar exists until a post is made on GAF about how forgettable it is.

 

[Shaanyboi]

I'm going to be sad when Spidey's second weekend is bigger than Apes' first.

Apes should know better than to follow Spidey by just a week.