OR!... The whip cream on the latte.
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December 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 10th
ShaoranWright
Member
Trump is not happy with this situation
Trump is not happy with this situation
This cannot be real. No way.
Edit: ok shoo it's not real. Thank goodness.
All I got out of that analogy is that it's all empty calories in the end.
Lol. It's a shop
DriftingSpirit
Member
I had the same reaction. The fact that it is something that even needs to be considered as real says it all lol.
slavesnyder
Member
Calories as empty as the hallways of a vr production studio.
Welfare
Member
But the S is a separate SKU that is tracked separately from the OG XB1. In fact going by that logic than PS4 can be separated into OG, slim, and Pro.
Trying to find spin where there isn't any just makes things needlessly complicated.
hanspampel
Banned
every different bundle is a separate tracked SKU in the NPD report
The NPD topic is already a total mess. Let's keep it there
No need that bs in here, too
The NPD topic is already a total mess. Let's keep it there
No need that bs in here, too
It's not necessarily that is s trying to find spin it just occurred to me that it was a possibility given the wording of the release. Hell I dont even think it's likely but the wording leaves it open for debate/discussion so I mentioned it. Lately I've become accustomed to playing devil's advocate in these threads to try and drum up some discussion .
Gaslighting.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
I failed you, optimism Gaf! Thankfully, so did everyone else~^^~ Hoping for a decent placing this month, since order an gap look to be right, but units will kill me...
CosmicQueso
Member
C'mon now fellas... they're not going to go cherry picking individual models for these kinds of comparisons. MS has been good at spin, sure, but every release they've made has been true. Let's not go down some conspiracy rabbit hole.
In other news, Switch hype.
In other news, Switch hype.
Primethius
Banned
That was a bad reveal. I don't want to judge it based on my own reactions but man, I'm a Nintendo fan and WHERE THE HELL WAS MONSTER HUNTER!
$299 just means I'm definitely waiting on the system. Not a bad thing to come in late and get games for cheaper (e.g. B2G1 sales, regular sales). They could be setting it up for a handheld only version at $199 later, but with the dock only being $80, that may not be accurate, either. And hopefully any real handheld would be backwards compatible with 3DS, which would rule out Switch replacing it. The handheld arena is really murky, right now. 3DS may be the last dedicated one from Nintendo, then. Maybe their handheld-only development would move to mobile?
Just one.
Well. Switch. Oy. We'll sell to the Nintendo faithful. But Damn if I wasn't kind of blown away by how they just swung and missed for our general customer base.
After the initial push of the people already sold on it, I definitely see this thing struggling in the existing market. Especially with its currently announced lineup.
And with those accessory costs, it's a tough pill to swallow to encourage any use of multiplayer on a single system. A few of my die-hard loyal employees are waiting to make a decision until they know if we get actual discounts on the first party accessories (which can vary, see Apple and Nintendo stuff).
Oy. Good luck Nintendo. Godspeed.
After the initial push of the people already sold on it, I definitely see this thing struggling in the existing market. Especially with its currently announced lineup.
And with those accessory costs, it's a tough pill to swallow to encourage any use of multiplayer on a single system. A few of my die-hard loyal employees are waiting to make a decision until they know if we get actual discounts on the first party accessories (which can vary, see Apple and Nintendo stuff).
Oy. Good luck Nintendo. Godspeed.
I fully expect it to be Wii U status after the initial launch hype dies down.
theprodigy
Member
That's ridiculous, it will do better than that.
But on that note, for some way too early predictions, how do you guys actually think the Switch will sell?
I'm with Abdiel. I was reading through Gaf last night and I saw a post that said "Nintendo done lost its damn mind!" and obviously that's hyperbole but damn if that's not how I felt for a moment after watching that presentation. 250K tops is my pick. People were burned by the WiiU and Nintendo doesn't seem to have learned much. Even with Zelda, I think the core and casuals are smarted this time around.
Yeah it's a complete guess and I fully acknowledge that I'm terrible at guessing numbers. I went back and looked at the WiiU launch (http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=503054) which apparently was 425K in November (but not the full month) so I guessed from there.
Just because it's Nintendo doesn't give them the benefit of the doubt when launching a new console, especially considering what the 3DS launch looked like AND the WiiU launch AND the fact that it's 2017 and the casual audience is long gone PLUS the PS4 and Xbox One at the same price with much more available software and services.
The Switch at launch looks no more compelling than the WiiU did and it's $300. How bad people want Zelda will determine how successful it is out the gate.
Don't get me wrong, I want them to do well because I have an irrational love of Nintendo. But they are not making it easy for themselves and the reality is they don't live in a vacuum without competition.
Welfare
Member
DS and Wii did ~500K launch week and 3DS and Wii U did ~400K launch week. I expect Switch will do ~400K launch week as well. Switch will have an additional 4 weeks in the March NPD, so a debut of over 500K is likely. Probably closer to 600K. April, May and June? Those will be dreadful.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Yeah, I guess I only see Switch being somewhat better than Wii U on the market.
Do we have data on hardware that would have launched in March previously?
Maybe they'll just sell out and it'll be moot, but I can't help wonder how much not being in a holiday window could hurt sales.
April (end of) into May (start of) has MK8D, should be fine. Even a port of MK is going to move systems, especially with the additions and its general ability to move even WiiUs.
May-June seem to be the current whole in the schedule unless they start filling that in with announcements as we approach release.
The current system? Could be.
But surely there will be an inenvitable mobile only version in the future (probably redesigned as well) that plays the exact same games. It will obviously be cheaper and will get (or even have some of them until then) new mainline Pokemon, MH and other popular HH IPs. At that point I can't see it close to WiiU anymore. Even the super outdated 3DS is doing pretty decent numbers in its 6th year, so there still is an audience for Nintendo. And their mobile games and other future projects (movies, theme parks, toys etc.) should help them to not lose or even expand that audience.
slavesnyder
Member
switch will sell better than WiiU but never in the range of PS4/Xbox1 in the US.
It will take number 2 spot in Japan (booold prediction) and should do the same in some countries in europe where Xbox1 is really weak and Nintendo is really loved.
So overall 75% of Xbox1 sales worldwide.
It will take number 2 spot in Japan (booold prediction) and should do the same in some countries in europe where Xbox1 is really weak and Nintendo is really loved.
So overall 75% of Xbox1 sales worldwide.
Primethius
Banned
I feel like it'll sell better than the Wii U because of Japan.
Everywhere else? This is Wii U 2.
Is it though? Is it really? Talking with customers, and I mean the general consumer who is not our excited enthusiast who watched the event and was asking about preorder options - The messaging of this thing is atrocious.
I await with mild dread to see what sort of setup we'll see in store to try and let customers figure this out. It's far beyond Gameboys and that sort of thing. It's not going to have the Tablet appeal, which is self contained and explanatory. It has extra stuff with it. You have to keep track of the extras, so it's like a 3DS, but it's bigger, and requires other stuff, like a tablet might, if you were considering that, but it won't do what a full tablet can. (Yes, this is speculative, but it will not be an Ipad or a Galaxy Tab in context).
Looking at this from a retail perspective, it's got lots of options for accessories, sure. But I have no fucking clue with Nintendo is doing. It's a mess. I see the enthusiasm from Nintendo fans, and I'm happy for them, I really am. And I truly hope you get lots out of this, but holy shit I'm already staving off a headache from the questions this thing is going to bring my way at work. I've already started drafting a list of questions to begin training my reps to answer on reflex about what it is, and isn't.
At least it makes a clean break from the Wii naming conventions to avoid that cluster-fuck issue. We haven't had any sign of our Nintendo rep yet, or any word from when they're planning on making an appearance, but I plan to greet them with a plan of action of an informed staff already aware of the ins and outs of this thing so we can be ready for the launch. It's close, so I want my team, and the local stores, to be on the ball.
I pride myself on being aware of all the systems and what's going on with them, so even if I don't personally game on them, I still try to make sure my teams and the local district is actively up to date - GAF helps a lot with this stuff, you know? But even just the thread about those Joy-con grips and the charging aspect was wearying.
We haven't been given any clear details about the exact launch titles yet either, guys. We need to know this stuff so we can talk to customers about what they know they can buy for launch. I'm hoping we'll know in the next few days, but this isn't the PS4 launch, with a 6+ month window of time. They've built a very narrow window of time to build any awareness of this product before it starts hitting shelves and people can start actually getting their hands on it.
Dude let´s not jump ahead to conclusions.
They can drop the price of this thing to 199$ and sell as good as 3DS imo
i agree that 299$ is going a bit too far, specially when both Ps4 and Xbox One will likely be 199$ next holiday (Black Friday/December).
InsaneTiger
Member
Appreciate your perspective, very informative. You da man.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
They never did that with the WiiU. Also, the 3DS did not start picking up until is was UNDER 200USD; a pretty tall order for Switch to pull off when it hasn't even released yet. Plus, I know people feel the 3DS is a mark in the success column, but it is their worst performing handheld (60M). Even the GBA (81M) outsold it and it only had a three year life cycle. 3DS is sitting at a little over half of Gameboy (119M) and just over one third DS sales (153M). I do not think Switch matching 3DS is as flattering as most people seem to mean it as.
I agree, no sense calling Switch DOA until we see how the market reacts, but it does look grim for it doing as well as Nintendo needs it to in order to rebuild their empire.
slavesnyder
Member
Nintendo will find the mobile business more and more attractive over time.
CosmicQueso
Member
Shipping 2m WW in March means the US likely gets 750k-800k or so. If they don't sell that out in the first month, they have real problems. A 500k month 1 number would be disastrous (again, assuming that the ship number is the right ballpark).
Well, I suppose you could be interested in this, so...
Amazon.com Switch games pre-order state, as of 21:47 BST, January 14th, 2017
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 2nd
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 5th
Super Mario Odyssey - 6th
Splatoon 2 - 12th
1-2 Switch - 15th
Xenoblade 2 - 32nd
Arms - 33rd
Sonic Mania Collector's Edition - 45th (unavailable)
Fire Emblem Warriors - 52nd
Puyo Puyo Tetris - 57th (171th on PS4)
The Elder Scrolls 5: Skyrim - 77th
Dragon Quest Heroes 1 & 2 - 92nd
There are several more titles outside of top 100, but there's no Switch-specific cathegory yet, so it becomes more difficult to track them down. Also, several titles dropped compared to where they were at the beginning, obviously (for example, Sonic Mania's CE was in top 10, and both Puyo Puyo and Skyrim were in top 30).
I'd like to get a better context for this, though: I fear we have no possibility to see how PS4/Xbox One/Wii U games were doing right when preorders started on Amazon.com, don't we?
Amazon.com Switch games pre-order state, as of 21:47 BST, January 14th, 2017
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 2nd
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 5th
Super Mario Odyssey - 6th
Splatoon 2 - 12th
1-2 Switch - 15th
Xenoblade 2 - 32nd
Arms - 33rd
Sonic Mania Collector's Edition - 45th (unavailable)
Fire Emblem Warriors - 52nd
Puyo Puyo Tetris - 57th (171th on PS4)
The Elder Scrolls 5: Skyrim - 77th
Dragon Quest Heroes 1 & 2 - 92nd
There are several more titles outside of top 100, but there's no Switch-specific cathegory yet, so it becomes more difficult to track them down. Also, several titles dropped compared to where they were at the beginning, obviously (for example, Sonic Mania's CE was in top 10, and both Puyo Puyo and Skyrim were in top 30).
I'd like to get a better context for this, though: I fear we have no possibility to see how PS4/Xbox One/Wii U games were doing right when preorders started on Amazon.com, don't we?
Well whatever their shipment, the thing is seemingly sold out online everywhere, so they're probably going to fill out their initial shipment. I don't know if that 2mil is their entire launch/month shipment, or if their launch shipment and that 2mil are different parts of a grander sum. No clue on greater retail, though Chicagoland is barren at all retail venues as far as I've been able to see.
Oh and it did come with the power cable.
CosmicQueso
Member
Oh and it did come with the power cable.
Between paid online and those insane accessory prices, perhaps their thirst for blood money has been satiated. Temporarily.
When the Switch Lite shows up and doesn't have a dock or charging cable, then let's revisit.
onemanasylum
Banned
Yeah this is not surprising, even the reveal seemed unprofessional, like they are not even really prepared. They are totally out of touch.
They never with Wii-u, Nintendo often is incredibly stingey with price drops, and even at 199 it is not going to set the charts on fire, the lineup with no third parties who clearly not on board, looks even more barren then wii-u.
You can only check the chart for the week.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2013-06-10/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar
Kind of meaningless to compare given the lack of a normalizer. Its all relative positions with no scale.
Thanks, Loris. Some items are missing, though, for whatever reason, with blank spaces in their places.
Yeah, now that you mention it, it makes things far more difficult to compare. It's just that I wanted to get a clearer picture, a more unbiased look at how Switch games are doing on Amazon.com right now, and the benchmark would've helped.
Slightly off-topic: I'm probably going to make a thread about YouTube views and likes/dislikes for the Presentation, Treehouse and the games' trailers. That could be helpful somehow, at least.
It is so depressing seeing Nintendo making the same mistakes over and over again. Especially when you realize a string Nintendo is vital for the ongoing success and health of the video game market in the future. They truly are clueless these days when it comes to markets outisde of Japan. Sigh.
DriftingSpirit
Member
With Wii, it was the motion control thing that caught fire.
What would catch on with Switch?