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December 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 10th
slavesnyder
Member
[3DS] 720K
[PS4] 1150K
[WIU] 60K
[XB1] 1050K
[PS4] 1150K
[WIU] 60K
[XB1] 1050K
Just to be clear the only thing I disapproved of was the statement of theory as fact. While I disagree with his theory I certainly don't disapprove of it. I just think it's important to state that it's a theory or an opinion and not a fact and then follow that up with the actual evidence (or lack thereof).
Begaria
Member
Don't really have number predictions but I do have some thoughts as to why I think PS4 will edge out XB1, albeit slightly, for December:
1) Adobe said PS4 won Cyber Monday
http://www.playstationlifestyle.net...st-selling-console-us-month-online-retailers/
Cyber Monday is included in December NPD (Nov 28th)
2) FFXV came out - stronger ties to Playstation brand, people likely to pick this game up who don't have a console already potentially got a Playstation over a Xbox for it. Not to mention Gamestop had a limited edition PS4 Slim FFXV bundle:
http://blog.us.playstation.com/2016...-fantasy-xv-ps4-bundle-launching-november-29/
No idea how well that did, but it's there.
3) PS4 and Xbox One both had a similar sale of $249 in December. However, Xbox One only went up to the 24th:
https://blogs.microsoft.com/firehos...4-in-the-us/#sm.00001b0jxypif4dqesodwedynb7ck
PS4 was also to the 24th, but up to the 29th in Canada ($329)
http://blog.us.playstation.com/2016...undle-249-99-december-11-through-december-24/
I think there was some Boxing Day only sales for the Xbox One here in Canada, but I don't recall having an extended sales length like the PS4 did. (Edit): As quoted, it seems like Sony extended the deal in the US to the 31st as well.
1) Adobe said PS4 won Cyber Monday
http://www.playstationlifestyle.net...st-selling-console-us-month-online-retailers/
Cyber Monday is included in December NPD (Nov 28th)
2) FFXV came out - stronger ties to Playstation brand, people likely to pick this game up who don't have a console already potentially got a Playstation over a Xbox for it. Not to mention Gamestop had a limited edition PS4 Slim FFXV bundle:
http://blog.us.playstation.com/2016...-fantasy-xv-ps4-bundle-launching-november-29/
No idea how well that did, but it's there.
3) PS4 and Xbox One both had a similar sale of $249 in December. However, Xbox One only went up to the 24th:
https://blogs.microsoft.com/firehos...4-in-the-us/#sm.00001b0jxypif4dqesodwedynb7ck
PS4 was also to the 24th, but up to the 29th in Canada ($329)
http://blog.us.playstation.com/2016...undle-249-99-december-11-through-december-24/
I think there was some Boxing Day only sales for the Xbox One here in Canada, but I don't recall having an extended sales length like the PS4 did. (Edit): As quoted, it seems like Sony extended the deal in the US to the 31st as well.
If I'm not mistaken, Sony extended their deal by a week in the US as well. I even saw the $249 price tag on Amazon this morning.
Welfare
Member
No indication of it being up or down at the end of the year. It was slightly up back in May but that was just +6.7%.
2015: 194,852
2016: 207,907
DriftingSpirit
Member
Hmm, assuming MS does take December, I wonder if it will be like 2014 going into 2015 with the PS4 taking the following January. Basically, the X1 momentum was on account of the holiday period rather than momentum built up that continues into the next year.
The X1S has been doing well though. So, it has the potential to keep it going this month too.
Edit - Oh, aren't we getting leaked numbers this month?
The X1S has been doing well though. So, it has the potential to keep it going this month too.
Edit - Oh, aren't we getting leaked numbers this month?
The Mad Draklor
Member
In the US, Sony actually extended the sale to December 31.
[3DS] 550K
[PS4] 950K
[WIU] 20K
[XB1] 900K
Welfare
Member
XB1 was outselling PS4 before the holidays. Right now the momentum has proven XB1 is the more popular product, PS4 barely won because of Pro launch. If Xbox wins December then it should lead at the beginning of 2017. If PS4 wins then it is more up in the air.
ethomaz
Banned
That could be where I read before... I didn't know it was from May.
It was up a bit in November too... it is probably flat or up yoy in UK... it is hard to believe it is down when in November it was up and until May it was up.
Welfare
Member
Only info we have on November is that Black Friday week was up 3K. Rest of November is a mystery.
DriftingSpirit
Member
I know, I was just making the association with another year. It isn't out of the question since X1 should have carried the momentum from November and December of 2014 into January 2015 but it didn't.
I don't understand how it would be more up in the air if PS4 wins though. As you said, PS4 barely won in November with Pro. To go from that to taking December without Pro would make it rather clear that the PS4 would be back on top as usual. The deals on both were on par with each other through December too.
Are we getting leaks again this month or is that shut down?
Begaria
Member
I believe Microsoft would have to sell a little over 1.5 million *more* Xbox One's over PS4 to take US.
The Mad Draklor
Member
He was asking for 2016, not LTD.
Chaostar
Member
The Mad Draklor
Member
I looked through the numbers and the 2016 gap is about 300K as of November, so the XBO has to outsell the PS4 by over 300K to win the year.
hanspampel
Banned
No numbers given, but before the ps4 slim release, ps4 was down for the year. That was said by mcvuk
Q1 ps4 was up in the us as well
X1S has been outselling the standard/slim PS4 since its launch. The PS4 pro launching should have been a huge momentum booster but it has only kept up the existing pace (in NA). I'd be willing to put money on more Xbox users jumping ship to scorpio than PS4 users to pro.
Chaostar
Member
Begaria
Member
Oh, yeah, I read that wrong.
Do you have a link? I don't remember that being said.
FinaruDensetsu
Member
Agreed. Also I don't really see a scenario where PS4 sold more this December. Even with the Pro it barely sold more. I think what's happening now is that the old 360 fanbase that was heretofore unwilling to buy in, are now getting in at the 249-299 price.
Chaostar
Member
From what I have gathered on GAF, the price points (and deals) have been very similar in December. Was that also the case in the months when Xbox one was ahead?
If not then there's a reason PS4 might come out on top in December right there, a big one.
Unknown?
Member
His theory is as good as that other guys. I mean seriously we all know the slim sold big on BF and Cyber Monday.
Welfare
Member
For the past two years the gap between the PS4/XB1 has shrunk in December compared to November.
2014
November Gap: 400K
December Gap: 232K
2015
November Gap: 243K
December Gap: 206K
2016
November Gap: 100K
PS4 Pro is still a factor in December as it adds sales but the gap is going to shrink again in December. Something like a 50K PS4 win in December is still a question as you would have to guess how much of a non factor Pro will be outside of the holidays. Right now the trend is XB1 > PS4 > Pro.
The Mad Draklor
Member
Didn't Microsoft release a Gears 4 blue XBO bundle at the beginning of November at entry price? Considering that the majority of November's sales are dictated by price, I don't think it's out of the question that the blue XBO mitigated the Pro's launch, especially when it's a uniquely colored XBO S.
That year Microsoft only won November and December due to heavy discounting. But this year Microsoft is coming with a string Xbox S launch giving them SEPTEMBER and October. So I think Microsoft momentum's reason are totally different this time around. And these reasons are not going to go away in January like last time when they hiked the prices back up
FinaruDensetsu
Member
I feel like the price sensitive 360 fans are more predisposed to staying within the ecosystem though due to being able to carry over their old games, xblg, friends, etc. So with price parity I feel like xbox one gets the edge.
Darth Smurf X
Member
[PS4] 1150K
[XB1] 1000K
[WIU] 40K
[3DS] 700K
[XB1] 1000K
[WIU] 40K
[3DS] 700K
Unknown?
Member
It's never been that way this gen so I don't see it changing now. PS4 has even outsold Xbox at $50 more in America. Only time it hasn't is when Xbox has been significantly more discounted. There's insufficient data on our end to make any concrete statements about the PS4 Slim/Pro. We simply don't know how well the Pro did or will continue to do and we don't know how many didn't buy a PS4 in September/October because of the Pro. We do know the Pro has a shortage, while not sold out everywhere we do know Sony wasn't able to keep up with demand in December.
Chaostar
Member
Do you often base your predictions on feelings?
This guy took the words out of my mouth...
Welfare
Member
Where are there Pro shortages in the US?
We know Pro had nothing to do with PS4 being outsold since, if we go with your start with September, the XB1 still leads by 42K.
September Gap: +48K
October Gap: +94K
November Gap: -100K
Right now, the idea that Pro is the reason the PS4 was losing is incorrect. The XB1S is seen as the more desirable product over the PS4.
The Mad Draklor
Member
Well... I think it has more to do with Microsoft's staggered bundle releases. Every month since August, Microsoft releases a new SKU/bundle. August and October's gaps were pretty big in favor towards the XBO. In August, Microsoft released the 2TB SKU at the beginning of the month and later on, released bundles at the end. In October, Microsoft released multiple Gears 4 and Battlefield 1 bundles.
September had the smallest gap in favor of the XBO. Microsoft released the Minecraft bundle near the end of that month and as I mentioned earlier, MS released the blue Gears 4 bundle at the beginning of November at entry price, which as discounted by another $50 on BF.
Prototype Viktor
Member
[3DS] 527,000
[PS4] 1,164,000
[WIU] 70,000
[XB1] 900,000
[PS4] 1,164,000
[WIU] 70,000
[XB1] 900,000
It's also the fastest selling console on the market in the U.S for the past 3 months. Xbox One sales closed the gap by more than 450 consoles on average per day
significantly outpacing the nearest competitor.
Welfare
Member
Yup. Sony should wrap it up in the US. Switch will just make matters worse.
So did you subtract the sales of fat X1s from the Xbox total?
'should wrap it up'?
Welfare
Member
Can we subtract regular PS4 sales as well then, because then it's even worse for PS4.
Sarcasm.
A really good month for Sony. Like... Really Good.
Aaron?
I think we'll see a narrow PS4 win in Dec, as indicated by both the Adobe report and the comfortable Amazon win (not using it as an extrapolation, but it is a vendor representing ... maybe 5 to 10% of the market. Specially with Cyber Monday included).
Let's see what Abdiel tells us as for BB.
January... I feel we'll see a return to "normal".
XB1 "crash", PS4 doing well to really well for 3/4 months before the spring slow down, as I think the XB1S saw a boost thanks to the combined effect of novelty design/ 4K uhdBR and a few strong exclusives (GeoW4/ FH3) plus the BF1 hype. Early 4K adopters will have one by now, and disks don't seem to be flying off the shelves, so the format itself isn't really taking it seems so far (and likely won't until Disney goes in).
Ah, my sarcasm meter must be broken
I wasn't exactly sure what you were saying in either positive or negative so i was getting clarification.
We know that PS4 is selling less than expected with a Pro bump, and Slim as well is selling less than PS4.
I honestly don't know what impact Switch will inflect onto the marketplace either early next year
Just out of curiosity what do you think happens if X1 wins December. Back to status quo in January or have they turned the corner?
I would really like to see some sales numbers for UHD Blu-ray.
This article indicates that they've sold "well over a million" UHD Blu-ray discs, and that there are over 100 titles available. So, an average of 10k sales per available title (And yes, that's really over-simplifying it. I know how averages work.)
http://www.mesalliance.org/2016/12/21/uhd-blu-ray-passes-key-sales-milestones-but-challenges-remain/
DriftingSpirit
Member
You mean according to Gaf expectations, yeah?
You claimed that the X1s seen as a better proposition than the ps4 slim and pro?
Figured you had some data directly comparing the two groups.
Maybe we should wait for December sales before proclaiming the return of the king especially considering X1 sales were down Yoy too despite the greatness of the X1S.
If they win December in spite of the few signs we have, it'll depend largely on the margin of the win.
The Pro has shown (afawk) to largely be a non factor in sales (but again the Holidays are hyper sensitive to price), so if the margin is small the same logic I was basing my rationale on remains imo valid, with taking in account a new COD bundle too.
But if the margin in Dec is > 50k, and particularly >100k, in favor of the XB1S then I would have to say I was likely wrong and the S model might just have a lasting appeal, in spite of the power differential at the same price.
If that is the case, it might indeed be that the 360BC + UHDBR combo are compelling the 360 owners that haven't done so yet to jump ship.
Need to finish 2016 first. Usually goes up around or just before the January prediction thread, which won't be till the end of January or so. I expect it to be just PS4, XB1, and NSW (
Wait, that's a problematic acronym. Need to come up with something different. :lol
Welfare
Member
All we know on fat XB1 is that it fell harshly after August. Majority of sales between August to now has been the S.
We do have data on PS4S sales for September and October though.
September: <100K
October: 130K
What little we know of XB1S sales in September and October.
September: 61K Madden 17 Bundles (Out of a total 332,800, missing Halo and Minecraft S Bundles)
October: 132K Gears 4 + BF1 Bundles (Out of a total 329,000, missing Halo, Minecraft, and Madden S Bundles)
XB1S is the clear winner against PS4S.
SWT?