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Media Create Sales: Week 22, 2013 (May 27 - Jun 02)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Sammy Samusu
Member
Can someone please post a SMT second week comparison?
And yeah, that's what happens when you have one new release every two months, there's actually no need to have much shelf space.
It's Rabbids Land, what were you expecting?
And yeah, that's what happens when you have one new release every two months, there's actually no need to have much shelf space.
http://www.4gamer.net/games/139/G013996/20130605064/index_2.html
Jin Fujisawa said in this interview that the Wii U download version of DQX sold about two times what the package version sold.
Jin Fujisawa said in this interview that the Wii U download version of DQX sold about two times what the package version sold.
Gamer @ Heart
Member
Bruno MB
Member
I've included all Megami Tensei titles that sold over 200.000 units (LTD).
[PSX] Persona (Atlus) {1996.09.20} - 62.661 / 263.808 (-69%)
[PSP] Persona 3 Portable (Atlus) {2009.11.01} - 43.720 / 152.063 (-60%)
[PS2] Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne (Atlus) {2003.02.20} - 41.344 / 192.547 (-73%)
[PSX] Persona 2: Innocent Sin (Atlus) {1999.06.24} - 37.500 / 208.077 (-78%)
[PS2] Persona 4 (Atlus) {2008.07.10} - 35.301 / 247.268 (-83%)
[SAT] Devil Summoner: Soul Hackers (Atlus) {1997.11.13} - 33.972 / 194.822 (-79%)
[PS2] Persona 3 (Atlus) {2006.07.13} - 32.268 / 159.740 (-75%)
[3DS] Shin Megami Tensei IV # <RPG> (Atlus) {2013.05.23} (¥6.980) - 28.499 / 213.310 <80-100%> (-85%)
[PSX] Persona 2: Eternal Punishment (Atlus) {2000.06.29} - 19.607 / 139.090 (-84%)
[PSV] Persona 4 Golden (Atlus) {2012.06.14} - 18.069 / 170.568 (-88%)
BishopLamont
Banned
Yep, and I think anyone going for the Wii U version is most likely going to be dedicated enough to keep subscribing.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
So about 800k total for DQX Wii + U retail + U eShop?
I expected that it would do better since the promotion to upgrade was so good. I would also expect most of the DL version to be repeat customers and so this probably didn't really help the total subscription numbers.
Gianni Merryman
Member
800 k sounds better than retail numbers hinted at, to be fair it may be argued that some may have double-dipped though, so subscriptions figures may give us a better insight here though.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
I was talking sales, not subscriptions. Roughly 650k Wii + 50k U retail + 100k U eShop.
Aye, but it may indicate that there's still a healthy subscriber base as a significant portion of people double dipped.
StreetsAhead
Member
Yes, a Western game with almost zero advertising was going to do well on a struggling system.
Not at any stores I've been to recently. Wii U still has about as much as the Wii. Vita is at 360 levels.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Does anyone have Wii U's all time eShop rankings handy? Is DQX still #1?
Capcom said in their IR report that MH3G/U had better than expected digital sales while package sales were "soft". Curious how well that title did on the eShop?
Capcom said in their IR report that MH3G/U had better than expected digital sales while package sales were "soft". Curious how well that title did on the eShop?
In the same interview they said half of the players are on Wii U.
Assuming by players they mean paying subscribers, assuming the Wii U version sold 200k copies to consumers, assuming that every single buying consumer is a subscriber, we have 400k subscribers.
I don't know what was he expecting but surely not selling <10% from the initial shipment.
And what's your excuse for Resident Evil: Revelaitons? uh?
He is addressing a problem with the shipments of the recent titles for the Wii U. We all know that Rabbids Land wasn't going to be a million seller but selling a <10% for the first day (and maybe a 30% for the week if it's lucky) is ATROCIOUS and there's no way to spin it. Retailers won't be happy with thousands of RE:R and Rabbids unsold.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Given previous sales, Rabbids might be hundreds.
Point stands though, and it didn't start with RER even. Game & Wario had awful sellthrough too. Low sellthrough is not a good trend to start having.
StreetsAhead
Member
It's a 15 month old port of a 3DS game?
Then those retailers should get better at buying stock. They don't owe publishers anything and presumably aren't being forced to buy stock of a game that any brain dead market analyst would have been able to tell you wasn't going to sell.
EDIT: Game & Wario being anexception to that. It should have sold better, and its low sell-through rate is unacceptable. It just wasn't a product the market wanted 3 months after Nintendo Land.
Yes, but it still has very low sell through. I don't think Rabbids Land is particular telling of anything- but Resident Evil kind of is IMO. Its a series that did well on the Wii and should have done better.
StreetsAhead
Member
I'll go with the crazy theory that Wii U owners are more likely to own a 3DS and thus are potentially more likely to have played the game 12 months ago. I mean, Chris is already predicting significantly less sales for DKCR3D compared to the Wii version and that has had a much longer time between releases.
Alternately, it's possible the market for NSMBU/Nintendo Land/DXQ/MHU had very little cross over with RE fans.
I dunno. When it comes down to it, you can make an excuse for almost every type of game and why it did not sell.
Chris is right- aside from Monster Hunter, basically every Wii U 3rd party game is struggling to sell out its initial shipment. That isn't good.
Given previous sales, Rabbids might be hundreds.
Point stands though, and it didn't start with RER even. Game & Wario had awful sellthrough too. Low sellthrough is not a good trend to start having.
I'm expecting a 10.000 shipment at least (yeah, numbers out of my ass). I don't think Ubisoft would be shipping 1000 copies just for the kicks, but we'll see next week (maybe you're right but as you've said the problem is not with Rabbids precisely).
Why did you change the Revelaitons from my quote? How dare you!!! ;P
As other people told you the "it's a 15 month old port of a 3DS game" doesn't hide the fact that the game has still thousands of copies unsold. And your explanation of the Game&Wario low sellthrough... I'd recommend you to look for better excuses, no offense (or stop defending what's impossible to defend)
Captain Smoker
Member
Game & Warios sell-through rate is ok actually.
Edit: First week wasn't good though.
BishopLamont
Banned
Which of these Wii U games warrant good sales?
There is a big difference between "good" and "terrible"
I think Revelations should have sold more. I think Fist of the North Star 2 probably should have sold more.
I'm not as pessimistic on the system as Chris, but I think its indisputable that 3rd party sales in general have been underwhelming, Monster Hunter aside (and I do think DQX is probably doing alright, given the unique nature of its digital sales).
The Wii U version of Revelations seems to be cheaper than the 360 version in Amazon Japan. Not sure if that's worth much, but I don't think that's a good sign.
Since the Wii U port was a late port, there should have been opportunity for Wii U DQX players to have tried and abandoned the game. I think it's likely that they're subscribers.
However, the statement doesn't bode well for Wii DQX subscribers being maintained.
Since the Wii U port was a late port, there should have been opportunity for Wii U DQX players to have tried and abandoned the game. I think it's likely that they're subscribers.
However, the statement doesn't bode well for Wii DQX subscribers being maintained.
Since some have accepted third party games bombing left and right on Wii U is something expected and deserved for different reasons every time let's go to Nintendo's first unofficial "relaunch" at 13 July.
Pikmin 3, physical release of Luigi and Nintendo Land RemoCon bundle.
First party games and probably one of Nintendo's biggest weeks in terms of releases until holidays. What hw and sw sales they would need to achieve short and long term in order to be consedered a success? Previous attempt with DQX and G&W failed miserably.
Pikmin 3, physical release of Luigi and Nintendo Land RemoCon bundle.
First party games and probably one of Nintendo's biggest weeks in terms of releases until holidays. What hw and sw sales they would need to achieve short and long term in order to be consedered a success? Previous attempt with DQX and G&W failed miserably.
WiiU retail version is ~70k by now. Somewhere around 200k (retail + download) for WiiU would probably be correct, if the comments are accurate.
All in all, the game (Wii + WiiU) sold more than I would have expected. I'm not sure how the subscriptions are holding up though.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
If Pikmin did 150k+ on its first week I think thats pretty good.
I really can't see the WiiU hardware sales going more than 50k.
Graphics Horse
Member
Consistently outselling PS3 would be a start. Outselling 3DS doesn't seem feasible.
Nah - DQX also cleared through its initial shipment and has received further shipments.
I mean, yeah - Chris is right, most of the 3rd-party stuff is having low sell-through on the shipments. But these are all games with miserable shipments to begin with. None of them are left with more 10-15k copies of unsold stock - across the entire country.
No retailer is crying because they are sitting on one or two copies of a game at their store. Even with RE:R, there are like 15k copies of unsold stock at the moment, which will be well under 10k in a matter of weeks. That's not a retailer crisis.
Even G&W has cleared through 3/4 of its stock by now. And it's still clinging around the Top 50.
Nobody cares about games that ship 20k, and then only sell 10k. The bigger issue for the WiiU is that it's been on the market for nearly a year, and all it keeps getting is mostly games that will only sell 20k in the first place. That's the issue. Not whether the game ends up selling 10k or 20k. Who cares?
They'll get some kind of mid-July bump, but I'm not sure how meaningful it will be. Sales will probably be back in the gutter in August (depending on how they schedule their releases through the rest of the year).
At this point, I think being the 2nd place system for 2013 is a reasonable goal. And I would say that using the PS3 LTD at the end of 2007 would probably be a good barometer to use. Finishing the year below that would be disappointing, and finishing the year above that mark could be considered a successful finish to the year (again, based on just how miserable things are for the WiiU right now).
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
It's going to do better than March, but still not as well as the platform really needs. I don't see either Pikmin 3 or Luigi U as big enough draws, though they'll be bigger than DQX and G&W were.
It does have better follow up though, even if it's just old Yakuza ports and a Platinum game. April 2012 was embarrassing for Wii U.
I'd agree sales at least were impressive overall. FFXI was like 200-250k total between PS2+360, which is probably the closest comparison. ARR: FFXIV PS3(PS4?) will be interesting to watch too.
MH3 Wii still reigns as the best selling subscription based online console game in Japan with 1.15m iirc, though it's not online only. DQX Wii/U comes in 2nd (~850k), MH2 PS2 in 3rd (~700k).
I think long-term, they need to at least raise the hardware baseline to 15k or so. If it goes below that again the relaunch will have failed.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
This "relaunch" definitely won't manage that. I think it's not even a question looking at the releases lined up.
I think a Vita style baseline upgrade (over 10k) is a best case scenario until Q4.
- game 1 ships 200k and sells 180k
- game 2 ships 20k and sell 10k
Except for publishers who run away when there is a game 2 performance every retailer prefers scenario 1 even if the game ends selling even less since there is bigger profit opportunity for now and for future releases. We know all third party games coming next months for Wii U will be like game 2.
F1 Race Stars
Injustice
Sniper Elite V2
Yakuza 1&2 HD
Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist
Sangokushi
Find one game that even by luck will exceed expectations
That basically just restates his argument does it not? Other than RE:R, which is a port of a 3DS game, meaning a scenario where Wii-U owners in japan are likely to own a 3DS and have already played the game before, there really haven't been any 3rd party games where it is fair to expect a "scenario 1". The only 2 that were were also ports of games available on other nintendo consoles. I think the platinum games, even if niche, are at least quality and exclusive, I think they will surpass expectations, and give a better indication than ports of games nintendo fans can already play elsewhere.
StreetsAhead
Member
Because it's a year old joke.
I'm not defending it. It should have sold better. It clearly wasn't a product the mass-market wanted and I would argue being a mini-game collection released so close to Nintendo Land probably hurt it, that's all.
No, it doesn't. If you assume all Wii-U owners have a 3DS then most PS3 owners also could have a 3DS. There are many games on PSP, DS, PS3, Wii, 3DS, and even some on Vita that in theory belonged to scenario 2 and came closer to scenario 1. That a game isn't destined to sell well doesn't mean it must sell zero.
W101 is published from Nintendo
Many of them may own a 3DS, but there is a much bigger install base, and even if they already own a 3DS I would imagine one would be more inclined to double dip assuming he/she already owns the system they are double dipping on. I don't assume all Wii-U owners own a 3DS, but it is fair to suppose that the few that have adopted the Wii-U are likely to be bigger fans of Nintendo on average than a PS3 owner. Wii-U really hasn't had any opportunities to prove itself as of yet, and doesn't really have any original software of a quality fair to expect one to exceed expectations. What original software has it had yet? a scenario where remakes and ports sell above expectations generally presumes that an install base is there to make it happen, Wii-U needs a consistent stream of quality releases to achieve that, we'll see what nintendo has up it's sleeves for the second half of the year.
We know more or less what Nintendo has up its sleeves for the second half of the year, what is supposed to change the current situation?
Big exclusive games from third parties won't come, most of them aren't interested on the system and it will be mainly some ports and multiplatforms from specific companies.
Wii U really had many opportunities to prove itself as of yet. Nintendo, many big western and some Japanese companies were on board at launch.
Big exclusive games from third parties won't come, most of them aren't interested on the system and it will be mainly some ports and multiplatforms from specific companies.
Wii U really had many opportunities to prove itself as of yet. Nintendo, many big western and some Japanese companies were on board at launch.
pieatorium
Member
Kart + 3D Mario + WW HD should give at least some decent holiday, they surely have some other third party stuff than sonic lined up otherwise they would have held off that to not make their e3 look like complete 3rd party abandonment right?
It's post holiday that will be where things could get ugly again, dropping everything at the end of this year means there's likely another first party drought in the first half of next year and if third parties are still holding off then it's just a cycle that continues again next year with smash + whatever else (X?, Retro?)with a follow up drought and then the year after with Zelda U + whatever the launch game teams move onto (animal crossing?) with followup drought.
It's post holiday that will be where things could get ugly again, dropping everything at the end of this year means there's likely another first party drought in the first half of next year and if third parties are still holding off then it's just a cycle that continues again next year with smash + whatever else (X?, Retro?)with a follow up drought and then the year after with Zelda U + whatever the launch game teams move onto (animal crossing?) with followup drought.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Nintendo are banking on MK and 3D mario. While I think it will help sell the system during the holidays, I still think 3rd parties need to on board to ensure a stream of games throughout the year for the WiiU to recover.
Depending on how well the PS4 is received in Japan, it could either kill or help the WiiU.
Depending on how well the PS4 is received in Japan, it could either kill or help the WiiU.
Of course the retailers would prefer game 1, but so what? There are far more games released for all platforms that sell in the 20k range than in the 200k range. If the retailers really feel pissed off enough about the game 2 scenario, they can start ordering 10k on release instead of 20k. Again - who cares? Nobody is freaking out about an extra 10k sales on effortless ports. Just for fun, let's assume that all these WiiU games shipped 20k, and sold 80% of that total in the first few weeks, instead of 50%. Does that change anything? Are retailers and/or publishers now dancing in the streets because sell-thru was 16k instead of 10k?
At any given time, there are probably 100 or so games with 10k+ copies of unsold stock in Japan. 10k excess stock for the entire country means that stores on average have 1 or 2 copies of the game. They're not sitting on mountains of copies per store.
I know that neither you, nor the publishers, nor the retailers were expecting any of these games to sell much more than what they shipped - so I'm not sure what the point of the comparison is between your game 1 and game 2 scenarios.
20.000 shipment, 5.000 sold, 15.000 unsold. Next shipment = 10.000, 2.000 sold, 8.000 unsold... next? No shipment and the Wii U out of the shelves on some stores (just like the Vita). If you don't see that as a dangerous trend, then I don't know what to tell you.
Not for this concrete week but I think Nintendo should start the year with a clear advantage against the PS4 if it wants to achieve some success in the future.
What's a clear advantage then? I don't know, 1-1,5 million maybe? So if PS4 launches this year in Japan and sells between 500.000 and 1.000.000, then Wii U should end the year with a LTD of 1.500.000/2.000.000. Doable? I'll tell you next Wednesday (now it seems almost impossible).
(I have no evidence to back up this million difference
)And...? You said G&W was 3 months after NintendoLand (when it was almost 5) and I didn't change your quote.
(And the joke is still funny
)You're defending it by saying that "the mass market wasn't ready/didn't want a mini-game collection so close to NintendoLand".
Seriously, do you know what the mass market want? or what doesn't want? Why are you on this forum then and not in a big firm analyzing their business? ;P
The game wasn't so close to NintendoLand (almost 5 months), NintendoLand had a good reception and decent sales (> 300.000 IIRC) and there're a lot of examples of similar games launching close and doing good numbers. So your last sentence doesn't make any sense, sorry.