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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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Not open for further replies.

Topher

Gold Member
For those MS Reward points :messenger_pensive:

john candy stripes GIF by hero0fwar
 
Since 2018 they have bought Zenimax, Playground, Obsidian, Double Fine, Ninja Theory, InXile, Compulsion and Undead Labs. I can't see how their entire presence in the market could depend on this one acquisition.

These acquisitions were largely meant to bolster GamePass, and GamePass has not grown to their expectations (their words).

They're swinging for the fences with the Activision buy to support GamePass.

If the Activision buy doesn't happen their GamePass strategy goes to shit. If their GamePass strategy goes to shit, their very reason for maintaining a console goes to shit.

You guys make it sound like I'm making this up, but you can literally look at quotes from Spencer saying they were looking at getting out of the console market, but he made the argument to the CEO to keep them in it and that argument HAD to be GamePass subscriptions. Major microsoft investors* wanted to get rid of Xbox (as well as Surface and Bing).

I could very easily see them go 3rd party and/or focus just on GamePass on PC.
 
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ToTTenTranz

Banned
It's partly the reason.
Why would anyone be against this acquisition so that "Activision games don't go into GamePass"? What's your logic here?

Did Microsoft buy EA, Ubisoft, Riot, Sega, Deep Silver, Rebellion and many others?
Microsoft doesn't need to buy an entire publisher just to put their games into GamePass. If all they wanted was to increase the number of titles and diversity on GamePass, Microsoft could probably spend a tenth of those $70B to put Activision-Blizzard's games in there.



Also, it's time to push Phil Spencer out the door. The amount of devs they have who are sitting around playing with their dicks is just absurd. I wish I had a job there; no responsibility or accountability needed.
This is my main gripe with Microsoft / Xbox Studios at the moment. 3 years ago I was convinced that Microsoft was a better home / publisher than Zenimax for Bethesda's studios.
But ever since the acquisition took place all we've seen is high-profile delays after bragging about their "hands-off" approach.
Well it doesn't look like a publisher's approach should be hands-off, does it? Just look at Scam Citizen.
 

feynoob

Member
Microsoft doesn't need to buy an entire publisher just to put their games into GamePass. If all they wanted was to increase the number of titles and diversity on GamePass, Microsoft could probably spend a tenth of those $70B to put Activision-Blizzard's games in there
Sony marketing is preventing that.
MS would need to win marketing in order to put Activision games on gamepass.
 

ToTTenTranz

Banned
Sony marketing is preventing that.
MS would need to win marketing in order to put Activision games on gamepass.
Sony's "marketing" preventing a 20x bigger company from putting 3rd party's games into its service?

MS doesn't need to win marketing to put CoD on Gamepass. They just need to pay Activision as much as they want. And they don't need to buy the whole company to do that because there are plenty of other publishers putting their games on Gamepass.

MS wants to buy Activision to cut the supply of their games into Sony's current and future platforms, and it's the first thing they did after buying Bethesda. It's not because they want to put more games into Gamepass.

I know that, you know that, the FTC knows that, the E.U. knows that, everybody knows that.
No one's fooling anyone here.
 

feynoob

Member
Sony's "marketing" preventing a 20x bigger company from putting 3rd party's games into its service?

MS doesn't need to win marketing to put CoD on Gamepass. They just need to pay Activision as much as they want. And they don't need to buy the whole company to do that because there are plenty of other publishers putting their games on Gamepass.

MS wants to buy Activision to cut the supply of their games into Sony's current and future platforms, and it's the first thing they did after buying Bethesda. It's not because they want to put more games into Gamepass.

I know that, you know that, the FTC knows that, the E.U. knows that, everybody knows that.
No one's fooling anyone here.
Can someone explain to him how marketing clause's works?
 

feynoob

Member
You don't know that marketing clauses have an end date and that Sony / Activision surely didn't make them for 30 years?

You think there's a lifetime marketing clause at play?
Then what is point of putting those games on gamepass after 3-4 years after marketing deals expires?

There is also first right of refusal, and other clause's that specifically blocks access to other services.
 

ToTTenTranz

Banned
Then what is point of putting those games on gamepass after 3-4 years after marketing deals expires?

You don't. You enter an agreement now to get into gamepass the game that is >1 year away from release and has no marketing deal in place yet.

Microsoft has been in this market for 20 years, they should know how marketing deals work. If they don't, it's out of incompetence.
 

feynoob

Member
You don't. You enter an agreement now to get into gamepass the game that is >1 year away from release and has no marketing deal in place yet.

Microsoft has been in this market for 20 years, they should know how marketing deals work. If they don't, it's out of incompetence.
Sony has a long term marketing with Activision COD.
Its not these 1 year marketing contracts.
 

wolffy71

Banned
Sony marketing is preventing that.
MS would need to win marketing in order to put Activision games on gamepass.
Yeah they would just need to pay more than Sony.

The more obvious route would be to switch up and buy smaller devs and then moneyhat gamepass exclusives from various devices.

There's no need to buy a dev in order to moneyhat tho.

To think that this deal falling thru will stop xbox buying exclusives is probably silly.
 
Nothing. The unhinged think the FTC is literally the worst organization in the world for trying to block this deal. So everything else they do is also evil.
No one thinks the FTC is evil. People think the FTC doesn't understand the video game industry and is being incredibly short sighted thinking that because Microsoft is big tech it's bad. Thankfully the Supreme Court will be giving a review of some of their practices and get them back to the business of actually protecting consumers and not making political decisions.
 

wolffy71

Banned
And/or progressively grow their existing dev studios, as well as investing in the IPs they already own, while finally being competent at managing those.
Those could both happen but it won't be at the expense of quickly acquiring exclusives. It's just bad business. They want quick growth as well as long term output. They have the cash and the desire
 

Clintizzle

Lord of Edge.
Microsoft doesn't need to buy an entire publisher just to put their games into GamePass. If all they wanted was to increase the number of titles and diversity on GamePass, Microsoft could probably spend a tenth of those $70B to put Activision-Blizzard's games in there.
You forget about user base. In the console space, we're looking at 2:1 advantage if we combine PS4/PS5 and Xbox one/Xbox Series. A publisher is not going to take more money (from MS) to make a game exclusive to a significantly smaller user base, it's just a bad move. Xbox doesn't have the privledge of being able to ask publishers to not put their games on competing platforms (not always, there are exceptions).

As for paying for games to be on GamePass, I belive Activision doesn't really want COD or their other games on GamePass at the moment. So it's lose/lose for Xbox in that competitors are blocking games from Gamepass and Publishers don't have intentions on putting their games on there.
 

Topher

Gold Member
You forget about user base. In the console space, we're looking at 2:1 advantage if we combine PS4/PS5 and Xbox one/Xbox Series. A publisher is not going to take more money (from MS) to make a game exclusive to a significantly smaller user base, it's just a bad move. Xbox doesn't have the privledge of being able to ask publishers to not put their games on competing platforms (not always, there are exceptions).

As for paying for games to be on GamePass, I belive Activision doesn't really want COD or their other games on GamePass at the moment. So it's lose/lose for Xbox in that competitors are blocking games from Gamepass and Publishers don't have intentions on putting their games on there.

Exclusives do not require any "privilege". There is nothing privileged in business. Exclusives require money and Microsoft has plenty of that. About a 100:1 advantage (probably more) over Sony based on a 2 second google search.

Activision said they wouldn't want their games on Game Pass without this deal. Once the deal is done, AB games will be on Game Pass. The only games being blocked from Game Pass are the ones that have marketing agreements with Sony. Marketing agreements that Microsoft can outbid at will. And they have. Microsoft owns marketing rights to Cyberpunk 2077 and yet it isn't on Game Pass either.
 
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feynoob

Member
Microsoft has plenty of that
Having more money is meaningless without ROI.
People touting MS money needs to realize that you need your investment back.

For example, this activision purchase would give them more investment on their PC store front, and access to mobile. That is a value money, as that investment would open them more opportunity.

On other hand, spending too much money on exclusivity gives them less money, as that is not effective with low userbase. They need to build their first party studio and have wider variety of content to have more userbase. You get that by investing more on buying studios, which MS should have done that long time ago.
 

Topher

Gold Member
Having more money is meaningless without ROI.
People touting MS money needs to realize that you need your investment back.

For example, this activision purchase would give them more investment on their PC store front, and access to mobile. That is a value money, as that investment would open them more opportunity.

On other hand, spending too much money on exclusivity gives them less money, as that is not effective with low userbase. They need to build their first party studio and have wider variety of content to have more userbase. You get that by investing more on buying studios, which MS should have done that long time ago.

You are talking about a company that just bought Bethesda for the expressed reason of buying exclusivity so that really doesn't fly. In fact, when Phil Spencer was asked if Microsoft could make its money back making Bethesda games exclusive, he said flatly "Yes".
 
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feynoob

Member
You are talking about a company that just bought Bethesda for the expressed reason of buying exclusivity so that really doesn't fly. In fact, when Phil Spencer was asked if Microsoft could make its money back making Bethesda games exclusive, he said flatly "Yes".
Buying a company is better investment, as you control the IP, and have developers at your disposal.
Exclusivity is a risky move with low userbase. You dont control the IP, unless you are making 3rd party devs make the game for you.

Long term investment, buying a company is worth it.
 
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Topher

Gold Member
Buying a company is better investment, as you control the IP, and have developers at your disposal.
Exclusivity is a risky move with low userbase. You dont control the IP, unless you are making 3rd party devs make the game for you.

Long term investment, buying a company is worth it.

Maybe. Maybe not. The gaming industry has a graveyard of previously acquired companies that didn't pan out. Either way, the point I was taking issue with was this notion that Sony has exclusives due to "privilege". If that's the argument then Microsoft's cash on hand is fair game.
 

feynoob

Member
Maybe. Maybe not. The gaming industry has a graveyard of previously acquired companies that didn't pan out. Either way, the point I was taking issue with was this notion that Sony has exclusives due to "privilege". If that's the argument then Microsoft's cash on hand is fair game.
When you are in a good position, its easy to make all kind of business deals.

MS did it during xbox 360, and started with COD. x360 become a hit. Then they stopped the brakes and fucked up badly with xbox one, that their huge money pocket couldnt fix their shit state. Their entire house management was rotten shit, and broke down their connection with other companies.

That sack of money is shit right now with current xbox image. If werent for bethesda purchase, Xbox would have been in a shit situation.
 

Topher

Gold Member
When you are in a good position, its easy to make all kind of business deals.

MS did it during xbox 360, and started with COD. x360 become a hit. Then they stopped the brakes and fucked up badly with xbox one, that their huge money pocket couldnt fix their shit state. Their entire house management was rotten shit, and broke down their connection with other companies.

That sack of money is shit right now with current xbox image. If werent for bethesda purchase, Xbox would have been in a shit situation.

Well, I agree with you 100% there. When Bethesda starts cranking out games then I think the landscape is going to change quite a bit in the console wars. That cash does come in handy. I just am not going to call it "privilege". Microsoft earned that cash.
 
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gothmog

Gold Member
Well, I agree with you 100% there. When Bethesda starts cranking out games then I think the landscape is going to change quite a bit in the console wars. That cash does come in handy. I just am not going to call it "privilege". Microsoft earned that cash.
Some day the prophecy of regular Xbox exclusives will come true. Maybe next year.
 

Clintizzle

Lord of Edge.
Exclusives do not require any "privilege". There is nothing privileged in business. Exclusives require money and Microsoft has plenty of that. About a 100:1 advantage (probably more) over Sony based on a 2 second google search.

Activision said they wouldn't want their games on Game Pass without this deal. Once the deal is done, AB games will be on Game Pass. The only games being blocked from Game Pass are the ones that have marketing agreements with Sony. Marketing agreements that Microsoft can outbid at will. And they have. Microsoft owns marketing rights to Cyberpunk 2077 and yet it isn't on Game Pass either.
You have kinda made the same arugemnt as I have 😅

If it were a case of the highest bidder wins, GamePass will be stacked with games like Cyberpunk 2077 on Day 1. The reality is no amount of money is going to convince CDPR/Ubisoft/EA/TakeTwo to put their games on GamePass. The privledge I refer to is the "Goodwill" or dominance that Sony and others have when it come to telling publishers to keep games off GamePass and actually have that agreed to.

Titanfall and the first reboot of Tomb Raider being exclusive Xbox One basically was the final nail in Xbox's (not Microsoft specifically) ability to secure exclusives. Those games didn't meet sales expectations even though they were received really well.

I work for a tech firm here in NZ and have seen many examples of it being considerably cheaper to aquire companies and their customer bases than to organically grow and compete with a similar service. We will never know the real cost of Aquisitions vs Organic growth but I can tell you what stategy majority of tech companies are using these days.

Edit- looks like Feynoob has been making similar arguments.
 
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Topher

Gold Member
You have kinda made the same arugemnt as I have 😅

If it were a case of the highest bidder wins, GamePass will be stacked with games like Cyberpunk 2077 on Day 1. The reality is no amount of money is going to convince CDPR/Ubisoft/EA/TakeTwo to put their games on GamePass. The privledge I refer to is the "Goodwill" or dominance that Sony and others have when it come to telling publishers to keep games off GamePass and actually have that agreed to.

I think a more accurate way to say what you are saying is Sony has more leverage in the market to get better deals on exclusives and marketing agreements. It isn't about "privilege" or "goodwill" though. Every publisher in the world is going to just laugh at "privilege" and ask Sony where the check is.

As far as Game Pass is concerned, Phil Spencer has said they are not going to burn through a ton of cash for Game Pass. That doesn't mean publishers couldn't be enticed to put their games on Game Pass day one. Simply that Microsoft isn't willing to do that.
 

feynoob

Member
That doesn't mean publishers couldn't be enticed to put their games on Game Pass day one. Simply that Microsoft isn't willing to do that.
Publishers are still against it. Small publishers and new IP games might accept day1, but the big boys said no.
MS would have flashed their money, if those publishers were on board with gamepass idea.
They still want that lucarative money from sales.
 

Topher

Gold Member
Publishers are still against it. Small publishers and new IP games might accept day1, but the big boys said no.
MS would have flashed their money, if those publishers were on board with gamepass idea.
They still want that lucarative money from sales.

I think some are more willing than others, but yeah sales are still the primary goal.
 
MS keeps bending over backward for this relationship to happen....like trying to get laid with with the hot chick at the school.

"little did he knows" this chick is a nightmare.
Wtf lol this is not what Microsoft’s doing at all. Again some of those headlines are misleading as nvidia is not opposing the deal more so trying to get games on their service. As far as Google no ones going to take them seriously as the European Union just made them and apple open up their stores more. Which is something they don’t want because Microsoft is one of those companies like them and Apple that could legitimately with this deal start to challenge them on that store front in mobile. So their arguments won’t hold up. If this deal gets pass the cma and eu none of this matters.
 

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
Idas at Resetera blessed us with the details of the Chile detailed response

Decision from Fiscalía Nacional Económica (FNE) in Chile regarding the acquisition of ABK by MS: approved without remedies.

From their own perspective, it takes into account arguments used by the CMA or the FTC about the acquistion.

SUMMARY:

Jurisdictions reviewing the deal
(page 2)

Australia, New Zealand, China, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, South Africa, Canada, the United Kingdom, the European Union and the United States.

Transaction has been approved in Brazil, Serbia, Saudi Arabia (and Chile).


So I guess that numbers 16 and 17 will be Israel, Colombia, Mexico, Argentina or India (but only if the deal goes through).

Third parties contacted during the review process (page 2)

- Local video game development companies (IguanaBee, Critical Failure, Smarto Club)
- Sony Interactive Entertainment
- Electronic Arts
- Ubisoft
- Wild Fi to Trade
- Chilean Association of Professional Video Game Developers
- Nexoplay
- Chilean Association of Video Game Developers


Survey to Chilean players (page 2)

The FNE conducted a survey to gather information on preferences and consumption patterns of Chilean video game players with the goal to analyze the effects of the transaction on competition.

The Survey was carried out in order to obtain information related to ABK's most popular franchise, Call of Duty. As the Division has done in previous investigations, in the preparation and implementation of the Survey, the guidelines of the Competition and Markets Authority of the United Kingdom were followed, as established in its guide of May 2018, on "Good practice in the design and presentation of customer survey evidence in merger cases". In light of the above, the questionnaire included in the Survey was previously shared with the Parties to the Transaction. The Survey was conducted online, through the Zoho Survey platform and was answered by 667 players.


Relevant markets (pages 5 - 14)

The FNE considers that it's better to analyse video game development and publishing as different activities to not dilute the presence that large publishers have in the development process.

Segmentation by platform: mobile, computer and consoles. In any case, the effects of the transaction were also be analysed considering computers and consoles together.

Segmentation by video game genre: in an expected turn of events, the FNE adopted the narrowest plausible market segmentation that could maximise the effects of the transaction, and analysed its effects on competition based on the distinction by video game genre (remember this paper from the early days of the OT? :p).

Segmentation by type of video game: for example, premium or "AAA", casual, stand-alone, browser, free-to-play, freemium and on social networks. The FNE says that this categorisation is not commonly used in the industry and has not been used in comparative jurisprudence to determine plausible alternatives for the relevant product market. Additionally, in this particular case, most of the games of the shooter genre considered important correspond to the AAA type, adding nothing to the definition of the market.

Therefore, this segmentation is not used (this segmentation was used by the FTC).

Latin American region (without Brazil) was considered as the relevant geographic market.

Distribution of video games: without segmenting between physical and digital distribution, but considering, separately, the distribution for each
type of device (mobile, computer and console).

Latin American region (without Brazil) was considered as the relevant geographic market.

Video game hardware: computers, consoles or mobile devices. In any case, although the differences between video games for computers and consoles have been blurring, some differentiation persists that could indicate that they constitute separate markets. Therefore, all the alternatives were analysed, leaving the definition of the market for the product open.

Latin American region (without Brazil) was considered as the relevant geographic market.

Sale of merchandising: only the merchandising segment linked to video games.

Chile was considered as the relevant geographic market.

Digital graphic advertising: the advertising incorporated within video games or in-game is not distinguishable from other forms of digital display advertising. Therefore, the relevant market was considered digital display advertising, but leaving the definition open, as it didn't affect its conclusions.

Chile was considered as the relevant geographic market.

Cloud gaming from MS not coming any time soon to Chile (page 8)

However, according to what was declared by the Parties, cloud gaming is not available in Chile, nor is it projected to be available in the term.
Additionally, of the documents reviewed during the Investigation, number XXX follows that
[Confidential].

Latin American market (excluding Brazil and Mexico) likes RTS, RPG and PVP
(pages 12-13)

In LATAM (excluding Brazil and Mexico), players favor video games for mobile devices, with the most popular games being those of the midcore type and belonging to the RTS & RPG genres. It is also identified that players from said region have a great affinity for midcore games that contain relevant competitive elements of the player vs. player type. All of this differs from the specific patterns and trends identified for other geographic areas.

Shooter and sports are the the two genres with the highest profits in Latin American market (excluding Brazil) (page 13)

In Latin America, without considering Brazil, the two genres with the highest profits are shooter and sports. The Shooter genre represented [30%-40%] of revenue in Latam in 2020, followed by the Sports genre with [20%-30%].

In Asia, the Shooter genre represents [30%-40%] of revenue followed by Action Adventure with [20%-30%]. The RPG genre accounts for [10%-20%] of revenue in the Asia region. This genre represents less than [0%-10%] of income in the rest of the regions.

Finally, in the Oceania region, the Shooter genre represents [40%-50%] of the revenue for 2020, followed by Action Adventure with [20%-30%].

Source: Nielsen database.


The importance of Call of Duty in LATAM vs the rest of the world, by monthly active users (page 13)

In the LATAM (without Brazil), within the top 20 most played video games, there is only one Call of Duty title, positioned in sixth place on the list. Then, in Latin America considering Brazil, within the top 20 most played games, two Call of Duty titles appear, which are positioned in first and sixteenth place on the list for that region.

In contrast, in Europe and North America three Call of Duty titles appear in the top 20 games with the highest number of monthly active users. In fact, in North America, Call of Duty franchise titles rank first and second as the video games with the highest average monthly active users for the year 2020.

In short, it is clear that, for example, the franchise titles Call of Duty are much more popular in regions like Europe and North America, compared to Latin America. See Nielsen Base.


MS/ABK aren't that big on mobile (page 15)

Additionally, regarding mobile devices, it should be considered that the video game development and publishing market is made up of different players, where Tencent is the competitor with the largest market share, both locally and globally, with a share close to 10% On the other hand, despite the fact that the Parties develop popular video games for mobile devices, such as Candy Crush Saga, Call of Duty: Mobile and Minecraft", their combined market shares do not exceed [0%-10%] locally (Chile) and they only reach [0%-10%] worldwide.

Furthermore, for mobile devices in Chile, four different versions of Candy Crush capture [70%-80%] of the revenue generated by ABK's top 10 video games by revenue.

While, on the Microsoft side, Minecraft captures [90%-100%] of the revenue generated by the top 10 video games in Chile.


MS/ABK marketshare by video game genre (page 16)

This Division has estimated the market shares of the Parties in the genres in which they overlap. Based on the income registered in the Nielsen Base, it has been found that, in Latam, the Parties overlap in the genres called Action-Adventure (0-10%), Racing (10-20%) and Shooter (20-30%).

From the analysis of the table above, it can be seen that the participation of the entity resulting from the Operation would only exceed 20% in the Shooter genre. However, Microsoft has a market share of XXX that marginally increases ABK's current situation. Consequently, in none of the exposed cases would the concentration thresholds established in the Guide be exceeded.


The risks in the digital distribution market could be overestimated (page 17)

Post transaction, MS/ABK would have a marketshare of 20-30% in Chile and 10-20% globally in the digital distribution of games for PC. Although those percentages are above the legal thresholds, the FNE believes that the transaction is not capable of substantially reducing competition in this segment for different reasons:

1) The alternative of segmenting between physical distribution and digital distribution has not been recognised in comparative jurisprudence, both forms of distribution would be interchangeable with each other, and would not influence purchase and purchase decisions. consumer game.

2) The Parties do not participate in the physical distribution of video games.

3) Therefore, focusing the concentration analysis exclusively on digital distribution would imply overestimating the relative size of the resulting entity, by excluding those actors who —participating in physical distribution— exert competitive pressure on it greater than that which, from their mere participation in digital distribution, could be induced.

4) In the market for the distribution of video games for computers, it is observed that various competitors of the Parties operate:
Epic had a market share of [0%-10%] in Chile. In addition, Tencent expanded its distribution store to the west in 2019 and, by 2021, it had a [20%-30%] stake in Chile.

5) It should be noted that ABK distributes almost all of its content through its own online distribution store, Battle.net. In this regard, the Parties have a differentiated offer in terms of the specific content that consumers ultimately acquire, in a market currently led by the Steam platform, owned by Valve Corporation. The latter is consistent with what is reflected in internal documents of the Parties, in which Steam's leading position is recognised.

In conclusion, it is possible to rule out that the completion of the transaction may generate risks derived from the horizontal relationship that is generated between the Parties in the distribution market for computer video games.

No risk of this being a tipping point acquisition (page 20 and 30-31)

The analysis indicated makes it possible to rule out the risk of tipping (i.e. that once a certain scale of operation is exceeded, the markets tend to concentrate and eventually close under a single actor or a dominant one).

Regarding the risk in the commercialisation of new generations of consoles, it is possible to rule out the possibility of tipping as a result of the lack of ability and incentives to determine exclusivities or partial blockades of the portfolio of ABK video games by MS.

In relation to subscription services, there are elements that make it possible to rule out the possibility of tipping: 1) there are other video games that are relevant to consumers, especially in LATAM; 2) the players in this market offer highly differentiated services (including Sony and EA); and 3) each actor through its differentiation policies can capture the preferences of a certain market segment and avoid its monopolisation.


Call of Duty is not an essential input in LATAM (pages 22 - 25)

ABK is one of the main game publishers, exhibiting several AAA-type video games. However, ABK is under competitive pressure from other publishers who also have a significant AAA portfolio in number and importance: Electronic Arts, Take Two, Ubisoft and Epic Games.

The importance of these developers is evident when reviewing internal documents of the Parties and third parties collected in the framework of the Investigation. Thus, the Electronic Arts annual report for the year 2022 recognizes a significant degree of competition coming mainly from the companies mentioned above. Likewise, Electronic Arts points out that the entry of new actors is possible:

"We face significant competition from companies such as Activision Blizzard, Take-Two Interactive, Ubisoft, Epic Games, Tencent, NetEase, Netmarble, Warner Brothers, Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo, primarily when it comes to game development. and services that work on consoles, PC and/ or mobile devices... We also continue to wait for new competitors to emerge".

To the competition imposed by the aforementioned developers, is added that exerted by console providers: Sony and Nintendo, with video games developed by their own studios. The Investigation realises that among Sony's most popular video games are The Last of Us, God of War, Ghost of Tsushima, Marvel's Spider-Man and MLB The Show franchises, all exclusive to their platforms (there is a redacted note regarding this sentence, I guess that it's about MLB The Show). In the case of Nintendo, the most popular video games developed by that company correspond to Animal Crossing, Super Mario Bros and The Legend of Zelda, which are also exclusive video games for Nintendo platforms. Microsoft appears in tenth place on the list of AAA video games with the highest revenue, among others, with exclusive titles for Xbox such as Forza and Gears of Wars.

In this sense, although Electronic Arts remains the most important developer, its relevance is increasing in this region, representing [20%-30%] of the total revenue from digital sales compared to [10%-20%] of global level. Likewise, Epic Games is positioned in second place in the ranking and ABK remains in third place, although its participation decreases compared to the world average. As a whole, the top seven developers concentrated [70%-80%] of the total digital sales of games for consoles for Latam.

The FNE reviewed the main indicators that the industry usually monitors to measure the success and importance of its titles. These indicators are related to monetary success, measured by the total revenue generated by each title; recognition, measured by the average monthly number of active users; and loyalty, measured by the hours spent playing each video game.

Based on this analysis, the FNE was able to conclude that, globally, ABK's main franchise, Call of Duty, including its various titles, is among the leading video games currently available. However, at the Latam level (excluding Brazil), its relevance is comparatively less, according to the indicators indicated above.

Regarding monetary success, in 2020 and globally, Call of Duty was among the top ten video games with the highest revenue generated on consoles with two of its titles: Call of Duty: Modern Warfare and Call of Duty: Cold War Black Ops. However, the sum of the revenue generated by these two titles did not exceed the main title on the market, Fortnite.

The same occurs when Microsoft and Sony platforms are analysed separately, with Fortnite being the most successful franchise for Xbox and FIFA in the case of PlayStation. Therefore, the income analysis would show the presence of other players in the market with equal or greater importance than the Call franchise. of Duty for console bidders.

Additionally, the analysis of the income generated in consoles for the year 2020, by region, would show that in Latam Call of Duty generates comparatively less revenue than other continents. In parallel, in this region, Fortnite accounts for a higher proportion of total revenue compared to all other regions globally.


Chart of marketshare of the main franchises in total revenue on consoles by region (2020)


View: %5BURL%5Dhttps://imgur.com/sacc2Dn[/URL]

The importance of Forfnite, particularly for LATAM, is further accentuated when examining the recognition and loyalty indicators. Indeed, when comparing the monthly average of active users in each region, Latin America —along with Asia— are the only regions in which Call of Duty is not listed as the main franchise. Instead, it is Fornite the title that is positioned as the first preference of the players.

As for video games under the shooter genre, globally Call of Duty is listed as the franchise with the highest number of active users for the year 2020, followed by Fortnite, Tom Clancy's series and Apex Legend. On the contrary, and consistent with the other indicators analyzed, in Latam Call of Duty does not lead the segment, but is only listed as the third most important franchise, after Fortnite and Apex Legend.


Fortnite is massive for Xbox (page 24)

Fortnite is the title [Confidential] on Xbox consoles in the year 2021.

On the other hand, FIFA, Call of Duty and appear on the list with two titles each. The list of the main video games for the Xbox platform is completed with Apex Legends, Minecraft and Grand Theft Auto. However, Fortnite outperforms all of the aforementioned titles in revenue, even when the revenue from the various titles in each franchise is added together.


The relevance of Call of Duty has been decreasing since the release of Fortnite (page 25)

Indeed, when the evolution of active users from 2009 to date is analyzed, as indicated in the chart, it is observed that Call of Duty was listed as the main video game franchise, until the launch of Fortnite in 2017, an event that seems to have a direct impact on the evolution of active users from Call of Duty. This has been acknowledged by [Confidential] who notes that [Confidential] .

Average monthly active users in LATAM for the main shooter video game franchises for consoles (2009-2021)



View: %5BURL%5Dhttps://imgur.com/qpv4F6i[/URL]

The analysis of the FNE shows that, although the entity resulting from the transaction would become one of the main video game developers globally, in LATAM there are other players with an important presence in the market, which offer high-level titles of recognition and loyalty on the part of consumers, and that could act as a counterweight.

Indeed, the information collected in the framework of the Investigation allows the FNE to conclude that, in LATAM, consumption patterns and preferences are evident that, to a large extent, differ from the global average. Thus, in this region, once the transaction is perfected, the Parties would not achieve sufficient market power to implement a strategy for blocking inputs successfully. The foregoing, given that, although the franchises marketed by them are relevant, consumers would tend to favor video games other than these.


MS' response to the Issues Statement from the CMA back in October said this:

Sony was not foreclosed when Call of Duty was exclusive to Xbox: There is no indication, based on Call of Duty's prior history of differentiation between versions of Call of Duty on Xbox and PlayStation, that this could in any way affect rival consoles' ability to compete effectively. Sony's share of console sales grew in the period from 2005-2015 when Xbox had certain exclusive rights to Call of Duty content. There are many more popular games available in the market in 2022 than there were between 2005 and 2015 (including Fortnite, PUBG, Apex Legends, Elden Ring and many others). If anything, Call of Duty's importance as a franchise was greater in 2005-2015. When Xbox decided not to continue with the Call of Duty co-marketing agreement in 2015, it simply found other ways to market and promote its platform. Sony, as the market leading console with an extensive first-party and third-party exclusive game catalogue, is even better placed to do the same.

The graphic seems to corroborate that argument: when COD had an exclusive agreement with Xbox (2005-2015), it was more relevant (and had less competition) than right now.

Call of Duty makes too much money from Sony to make it exclusive (page 27)

The information collected in the Investigation allows us to affirm that the income generated by the Sony console in ABK are relevant, and that said relevance would discourage a strategy of blocking inputs. As a first precedent, we can consider that PlayStation is the console that generates the highest income for ABK, doubling in 2021 the income generated in its favor by Xbox consoles. The results are similar when looking at revenue for the Call of Duty franchise. In this case, PlayStation represented [20%-30%] of the revenue generated in 2020 compared to [0%-10%] of Xbox.

The importance of Sony is even more evident when the most successful Call of Duty title in 2020 is analyzed, this is Modern Warfare. For this title, PlayStation represented [50%-60%] of revenue. The rest of the revenue is divided between computers ([20%-30%]) and Xbox ([10%-20%]). This demonstrates the importance of the Sony console in ABK's profits and how important the loss of income that would cause a blocking of supplies to the detriment of Playstation would mean for that company.

The importance of the Sony console for ABK is also evident in [Confidential] internal documents, which mention [Confidential] in marketing, and account for ABK's intention [Confidential]. Along the same lines, these documents account for the impairments that [Confidencial] would imply.

The incentives to deploy an input blocking strategy are also affected by the significant investments made during the course of the game's development, in adjustments aimed at meeting the technical specifications of the consoles. Therefore, for the FNE it is evident that a possible blockade of PlayStation would imply the loss of all the investments made years in advance to adapt the next releases of titles to the PlayStation console.

From all of the above, it can be observed that there would be a kind of interdependence between Sony and ABK, an element that would reduce the incentives of the Parties to generate a total blockade of inputs.


Only 22% of Chilean players would abandon Playstation if COD becomes exclusive to Xbox (page 28)

A partial lockdown scenario (less features and a delay release, for example) might be unlikely too, if a low number of players are willing to migrate from PlayStation to Xbox as a result of the lockdown. In this sense, the results of the Survey – implemented by the FNE to Chilean video game consumers – shed light on the willingness of players to change their device, given the supposed unavailability of Call of Duty on Sony consoles. The data from the Survey shows that 61% of console players, faced with a scenario of unavailability of Call of Duty, would opt for a different video game, and only 22% would opt to switch to another device. 18% of the players said that they would not have played any video game.

Regarding computer gamers, 18% chose to change the device, 62% opted for a different video game and 21% would not have played any video game.

In turn, it is important to review whether this critical mass of players has the possibility of multihoming (the use by a player of different consoles to play video games), which would reduce the positive effects of migrating to Xbox to play video games of ABK, in response to the indefinite unavailability of this franchise on Sony consoles.

However, the Survey shows that multihoming between different consoles is not a common practice among them. In this sense, the Survey showed that only 14% of gamers own more than one video game console, a situation that cannot be replicated (with respect to computers).

Another element that is relevant to consider in the analysis is the growing popularity of the modality of cross-play. Documents from the Parties and from third parties show that the cross-play modality is becoming increasingly important and is an element that is highly demanded by consumers.

The FNE considers that deploying a potential strategy of partial or total blocking of PlayStation would imply, in a certain way, contravening the trend towards which the market is projected, and would generate deviations towards competing video games that do include this modality. The importance of crossplay for Call of Duty players is confirmed, for local consumers, in the results of the Survey, which indicates that 72% of Call of Duty players on consoles consider this modality as a relevant factor for choosing their primary device.


Grand Theft Auto is more essential than COD to Chilean Call of Duty players (page 29)

To the question: "Based on your experience as a video game player, rate the following contents from essential to highly dispensable", 65% considered the title Grand Theft Auto essential or not dispensable, and 62 % expressed such opinion regarding Call of Duty.

It should be noted that these results are even more telling, considering that the respondent base was made up of Call of Duty players and not necessarily Grand Theft Auto players.

Thus, the importance of Gran Theft Auto could be underestimated in view of those who make up the Survey sample.

Nintendo is not their own market (page 30)

Furthermore, the situation of Nintendo is especially illustrative, since it does not offer titles from the Call of Duty franchise and, in any case, has managed, through a differentiation strategy, to position itself as the most commercialised console in Chile.

The market worldwide, including Chile is highly concentrated and, as has been stated, it only has three players that capture practically all of it Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft. However, it must be considered that, in this segment, there is leadership from Sony, worldwide, and from Nintendo, locally.


Cloud gaming is not their own market, it's part of subscription services (page 30)

It should be noted that Microsoft offers cloud gaming services through its Game Pass Ultimate subscription platform. For this reason, from now on it will be understood that cloud gaming is part of the subscription services and they will be analyzed together. Hereinafter and unless otherwise indicated, references to subscription services include cloud gaming.

In 2021, Xbox was second in Chile (page 32)

The available information shows that, in 2021, Xbox, locally, was the second most relevant console in terms of sales in Chile, after Nintendo, and the third globally.
[/QUOTE]
 

VAVA Mk2

Member
So you do need Gamepass to play the game, right?

Now do you see what I was talking about? Let's revisit the conversation.



  1. You need Gamepass Ultimate to access xCloud. If someone doesn't have XGP Ultimate, they can't play XGS/Bethesda games.
  2. There are 25 million XGP users. So, at most, only 25 million people will have access to Bethesda games via xCloud if they released today.
  3. And because Microsoft has made these games exclusive, they won't be available to 135 million PlayStation users anymore.
So because of Microsoft's acquisition, inclusion of Bethesda games to GP, and exclusive of PS users:

Increase = 25 million gamers
Decrease = 135 million gamers

Hence, Microsoft's acquisitions decrease the total number of players that can access Bethesda games, not increase them as they've been lying in their PR.

I literally cannot make this simpler than this. If somebody still doesn't "understand" it, they are just playing dumb to protect Microsoft's false narrative.
No it doesn't . The potential market increases as people who do not own a console or a gaming PC can potentially sub to GPU to access these titles on anything with a Chromium-based web browser or a smart TV with the GP app. You are leaving out the potentially untapped consumers this expands to.
 
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