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NPD Sales Results For October 2016

Theorry

Member
It always amazes me in this threads that people struggle to step outside of themselves and see what the average consumer sees. Gears of War 4, like Quantum Break before it, just looked really boring.

That's not to say that they're not great games, but if you're the kind of person that doesn't read NeoGAF and follow reviews and every single screenshot and trailer, then I'm not sure what there was with either title to get excited about.

And before people jump on me, that exact perspective is reflected by the sales numbers.

How do they know if its boring if they dont watch anything?
The masses probably saw this of Gears. And its nothing boring at all.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ji2aU4EdQww

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Q0B1okadSo
 

Tutomos

Member
PS4's fate this year will be tied with 3 games: Watch Dogs 2, COD: IW and FF 15. If these games are doing well, Sony will sell a lot of consoles. Early indication says that these games are doing ok (not sure about FF15 yet). Can't read too much into it right now but I bet Sony is already looking forward to next year when Destiny 2 and RDR 2 will come out and with marketing deals with Sony.
 

Loris146

Member
PS4's fate this year will be tied with 3 games: Watch Dogs 2, COD: IW and FF 15. If these games are doing well, Sony will sell a lot of consoles. Early indication says that these games are doing ok (not sure about FF15 yet). Can't read too much into it right now but I bet Sony is already looking forward to next year when Destiny 2 and RDR 2 will come out and with marketing deals with Sony.

Star Wars too.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Perviously on NPD prediction thread...



...and now...

Get yourself unbanned Ryng_tolu, we have unfinished business.

Ah whatever. Both did less than I thought they would. Fuck 2016.

Hey man I was just trying to look out for you. Even the slightest chance of losing a bet to Ryng is just not worth it. *shudders*
 

Kill3r7

Member
PS4's fate this year will be tied with 3 games: Watch Dogs 2, COD: IW and FF 15. If these games are doing well, Sony will sell a lot of consoles. Early indication says that these games are doing ok (not sure about FF15 yet). Can't read too much into it right now but I bet Sony is already looking forward to next year when Destiny 2 and RDR 2 will come out and with marketing deals with Sony.

Early indications are that these games are underperforming severely.
 

jayu26

Member
Hey man I was just trying to look out for you. Even the slightest chance of losing a bet to Ryng is just not worth it. *shudders*
Lol. Like I said it was just for fun. I was going for generic action drama opening with that post. I just figured your post would give some context to that conversation. I appreciate you looking out though. And I am glad I did not lose.
 
Then you should heavily question PS4 sales.
/s

Third party drives console sales.
Although first party holding less weight than third is obvious, you aren't looking at the strength of PS4 brand completely IMO.

There are a lot of exclusive indy titles, a lot of region specific titles that don't go to X1. PS4 has it's own proprietary VR, and a ton of games exclusives to it, or exclusive to it and PC because of that hardware. Sony's WWS is larger than MS as well. Fact is, PS4 has a significant amount of more software in general, and has appeal in many more territories outside of U.S.

MS's shrinking first party does not bode well for the future of Xbox IMO, it looks like its just going to become another brand of PC.
 

Kusagari

Member
It always amazes me in this threads that people struggle to step outside of themselves and see what the average consumer sees. Gears of War 4, like Quantum Break before it, just looked really boring.

That's not to say that they're not great games, but if you're the kind of person that doesn't read NeoGAF and follow reviews and every single screenshot and trailer, then I'm not sure what there was with either title to get excited about.

And before people jump on me, that exact perspective is reflected by the sales numbers.

Comparing Quantum Break to a sequel in a franchise where games 1-3 all sold 3 million+ copies makes no sense at all.
 
how much did Halo 3, Reach, Halo 4 sold? More than 10 million each
How much did Gears 1-3 sold? I dont have exact numbers but they were above Uncharted.

The point is, people dont buy console to play first party. At least majority dont.
then what do they buy it for? Only third party games?

I think you guys are confusing first party is no where near as important as first party with "people don't buy consoles for first party titles" of course they do. Every title, wherever its from, adds to the library and appeal of the system.

And this is simply assbacksward for Nintendo consoles, where by and large, the consumers do buy it mostly for the first party titles.
 

noshten

Member
So who else is expecting Skyrim to make a lot of other NPD threads in the upcoming months? Does it have that evergreenfactor still
 

Boke1879

Member
You know NPD threads are dead when something like this happens and this thread is still on life support. If this happened 3 years ago we'd be on page 50 already.

The reason these threads just aren't exciting is partly due to the new NPD format and also this is my assumption now. Nothing exciting is happening.

The biggest thing is the XBO winning 4 months in a row, but in all honesty we know nothing is changing. They still have to make up a 1.5 million gap.
 

Humdinger

Member
At least we're still getting numbers. I thought for a while all we'd be getting is a ranked list.

Information comes piecemeal now, rather than all in one evening. I think that makes the discussion more disjointed and harder to follow. Otoh, the huge threads moving at a breakneck pace are also hard to follow, so maybe a slower discussion is good in a way, too.
 
The reason these threads just aren't exciting is partly due to the new NPD format and also this is my assumption now. Nothing exciting is happening.

The biggest thing is the XBO winning 4 months in a row, but in all honesty we know nothing is changing. They still have to make up a 1.5 million gap.
Yep.
 
You know NPD threads are dead when something like this happens and this thread is still on life support. If this happened 3 years ago we'd be on page 50 already.

If it was made by Epic and Cliffy B and part of a quadrilogy, yeah. Truth is Gears golden run was 1-3 and they've tried to reheat it with different devs teams on different generations, even if some work on the old ones its still a different team and its almost impossible to rebottle that. Crazy to think people thought Gears 4 would be taking Halo's mantle as a sales juggernaut. Maybe a full reboot in the universe on Scorpio but really I think we should be seeing high calibre replacements, Gears was new last gen, as was Mass Effect as was Uncharted, as Assassins Creed as Bioshock, Infamous and so on.

MS tried with Quantum Break but as with Alan Wake they both opened to low sales. QB was supposed to be a high production mega hit but both ip's to me are quite dull heavily influenced by early 2000s graveyard shift US television shows. I bought Alan Wake at a launch, don't get me wrong I'm just being honest. QB money was misplaced. Remedy should really be having fun instead of this dull serious tone they have going. You have a blank slate of infinite possibilities yet the side stuff in the game is much interesting, tap into that.
 

TaterTots

Banned
Civ VI made the top 10? I rarely see a PC exclusive on the list. I guess I shouldn't be surprised. Even mostly console players dig Civ.
 

RexNovis

Banned
You know NPD threads are dead when something like this happens and this thread is still on life support. If this happened 3 years ago we'd be on page 50 already.

I think most expected GOW 4 to under-perform compared to UC4. Granted it under-performed a lot more than most expected but the result isn't that shocking to those of us who regularly track and talk sales.

I think, given the performance of Gears and Halo, if there was any doubt as to whether MS' strategy to build dev studios around existing IP previously form different developers doesn't pay dividends for them that should be dispelled now. It always seemed like a terrible strategy to me to focus on building an IP over building a development studio but many seemed to think it was a valid one. I think the results thus far have proven otherwise. The goal for longterm success should be to cultivate talent and allow that talent to express themselves creatively not this sort of laser focus on building a specific IP.
 

Boke1879

Member
If it was made by Epic and Cliffy B and part of a quadrilogy, yeah. Truth is Gears golden run was 1-3 and they've tried to reheat it with different devs teams on different generations, even if some work on the old ones its still a different team and its almost impossible to rebottle that. Crazy to think people thought Gears 4 would be taking Halo's mantle as a sales juggernaut. Maybe a full reboot in the universe on Scorpio but really I think we should be seeing high calibre replacements, Gears was new last gen, as was Mass Effect as was Uncharted, as Assassins Creed as Bioshock, Infamous and so on.

MS tried with Quantum Break but as with Alan Wake they both opened to low sales. QB was supposed to be a high production mega hit but both ip's to me are quite dull heavily influenced by early 2000s graveyard shift US television shows. I bought Alan Wake at a launch, don't get me wrong I'm just being honest. QB money was misplaced. Remedy should really be having fun instead of this dull serious tone they have going. You have a blank slate of infinite possibilities yet the side stuff in the game is much interesting, tap into that.


I felt QB really didn't do anything new though. It was a third person shooter, but it felt like a game many played before. It felt like Max Payne but with prettier visuals and a few new bullet time moves. Nothing about it really felt all that interesting.
 

Norse

Member
Today's npd numbers are far different from numbers of old when digital wasn't an option. Now roughly 30% of sales are digital so the sales numbers being reported don't always include them unless noted that they do.

So, some titles could be missing 30% of their sales. The top 10 in sales isn't really accurate any more.


And where are the hdwr #'s ? Weren't those supposed to come out today?
 

sense

Member
Today's npd numbers are far different from numbers of old when digital wasn't an option. Now roughly 30% of sales are digital so the sales numbers being reported don't always include them unless noted that they do.

So, some titles could be missing 30% of their sales. The top 10 in sales isn't really accurate any more.
I think the argument is that even with 30-40% digital ratio some of them are way down in sales
 

Elandyll

Banned
Today's npd numbers are far different from numbers of old when digital wasn't an option. Now roughly 30% of sales are digital so the sales numbers being reported don't always include them unless noted that they do.

So, some titles could be missing 30% of their sales. The top 10 in sales isn't really accurate any more.


And where are the hdwr #'s ? Weren't those supposed to come out today?

Hasn't it been reported that in most cases it's 30% for week 1 (due to the day 1 effect as well) but that it then falls lower than that?

Hardware was reported earlier this morning.
 

Mrbob

Member
Sony screwed up by not having a 4k media drive in ps4 slim/pro. Whether it gets used or not XB1 has a competitive advantage by just including the drive. 249 Black Friday for a 4k player is tempting. Plus MS benefiting by having a promo with what is looking to be the hot holiday game (BF1).

Speaking of BF1, is this the year BF overtakes CoD?
 
Sony screwed up but having a 4k media drive in ps4 slim/pro. Whether it gets used or not XB1 has a competitive advantage by just including the drive. 249 Black Friday for a 4k player is tempting. Plus MS benefiting by having a promo with what is looking to be the hot holiday game (BF1).

Speaking of BF1, is this the year BF overtakes CoD?

If CoD debuts to less then BF1...

Holy shit. That would actually be, IMO, the biggest drop off of 2016.
 

cheesekao

Member
Sony screwed up but having a 4k media drive in ps4 slim/pro. Whether it gets used or not XB1 has a competitive advantage by just including the drive. 249 Black Friday for a 4k player is tempting. Plus MS benefiting by having a promo with what is looking to be the hot holiday game (BF1).

Speaking of BF1, is this the year BF overtakes CoD?
Abdiel has already said that it's not as big of a deal as people try to make it out to be. The primary reason XB1 has been selling more is due its lower price.
 

statham

Member
This maybe kinda OT, but IMO what MS is trying to do. With the blunder of 2013, selling a more expensive kinect console which the core hated and being weaker, a large percent of the core gamers left MS to PS4. MS knows the errors, cancels kinect, squeezes out as much as they can from XBO with updates, unlocking stuff. Also greenlighting more core projects, Getting Gears, MCC, Rare Replay, BC, sales are low on first party titles because a large % of peeps(core buyers) already jumped shipped, they buy every big game, now they are on PS4. PS4 wants to save that same core from jumping ship to PC, thus PS4.5, MS wants them all back thus Scorpio. Just rambling, but thats my take.
 
If CoD debuts to less then BF1...

Holy shit. That would actually be, IMO, the biggest drop off of 2016.

The thing is COD has already drop off but it also goes up back depending on the game .
If i remember right COD Black Ops III sold better than last 1 or 2 COD games before it .
Hype for this one seem like it at a all time low but next one it could always rebound.
 

Welfare

Member
Or, if you believe Welfare's approach of competition-matching is more accurate to the real situation:

Xbox 360: 250,000
Playstation 3: 320,600
Wii: 506,900

Which is actually pretty similar to this year results if you exclude Wii.

XB1: 329,000
PS3: 320,600

360: 249,700
PS4: 235,100
 
So years from now when people look back at this gen which will be seen as the dumber decision: Titanfall 2's release date or Rise of the Tomb Raider's timed exclusivity?
 
The thing is COD has already drop off but it also goes up back depending on the game .
If i remember right COD Black Ops III sold better than last 1 or 2 COD games before it .
Hype for this one seem like it at a all time low but next one it could always rebound.

Yea, but I don't think any CoD games have dropped as low as debuting to 1.2-1.4 million have they?

Maybe Ghosts?

So years from now when people look back at this gen which will be seen as the dumber decision: Titanfall 2's release date or Rise of the Tomb Raider's timed exclusivity?

Definitely ROTRs timed deal. Titanfall 2s failure had far more factors involved then ROTR, which largely starts and ends with idiotic SE decisions.
 

Welfare

Member
So years from now when people look back at this gen which will be seen as the dumber decision: Titanfall 2's release date or Rise of the Tomb Raider's timed exclusivity?

Apparently SE already has another Tomb Raider in production so they don't care. TF2 however probably killed the franchise.
 

Shpeshal Nick

aka Collingwood
The reason these threads just aren't exciting is partly due to the new NPD format and also this is my assumption now. Nothing exciting is happening.

The biggest thing is the XBO winning 4 months in a row, but in all honesty we know nothing is changing. They still have to make up a 1.5 million gap.

Huh? I didn't think the gap was that big in the US. I thought I was far less than than that.
 
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