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The UK votes to leave the European Union
- Thread starter Spring Drive
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InsaneZero
Member
You seem to be living in a fantasy world written by John le Carre.*
Did it occur to you that what the UK receives for its intelligence is...US intelligence?
No trade agreement is necessary.
* this is unfair, le Carre has a much more sensible understanding of the UK's place in the intelligence world, which is generally at the back of the queue
The US will provide a trade deal to the UK, not because of intelligence shenanigans but because it's beneficial to the US.
They have a special relationship since at least the Jay treaty where the US proved the most unreliable ally the French could have.
UK is not getting a better deal than it would have had with the EU, that's utter fantasy.
Led_Zeppelin
Member
The size of the global derivative markets is currently is estimated to be between 700Trillion to 1.2 Quadrillion.
jellies_two
Member
yeah because it takes so much EFFORT to click a link and hit submit.
I fucking hate frictionless online petitions, even this type that has triggers attached. One online vote shared in social media should be worth about 1/1000th of a signature on a form collected by a volunteer because it takes 1/1000th of the effort to click. Wake me up when all decisions can be voted on online in real time, not just the odd one now and again.
I wasn't just talking about UK -- we don't know what will happen so we can't just assume things settle down if UK exits asap.w
the world wasn't going to end because it's the UK that has a problem, not the EU or China.
Fuck it, going to bed. Hoping when I wake up some genius lawmaker finds a flaw which makes the whole referendum null and void.
Ireland - no chance, but that doesn't mean it can't kick off a whole lot of shit we don't ever want to see again.
Scotland - possible, but not for a very long time. Their journey of leaving the eu, getting indyref2, then gaining independence, then applying to the EU, will take decades.
Ireland - no chance, but that doesn't mean it can't kick off a whole lot of shit we don't ever want to see again.
But legally the EU has no standing. At all.
They cannot do anything to force us to press the button. All they can do is make statements which are being picked apart and debunked by people actually in the know.
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
To be fair, the nightly thread on the results had the most appropriate use of Malcolm Tucker gif's ever.
In The Thick Of It fucking delivered.
Good luck getting more than 32 million signatures. I mean that's how many you should need right? Because 32 million people have just had their say....it's barely been 24 hours.
QuantumZebra
Member
If those votes can fuck up the global economy and other countries, you really expect those countries to not say "Hey hold up, y'all"?
I'm American and the UK's idiocy is costing me money.
Yea it means that we have y'alls backs if China or Russia show up on your doorstep - not that you can do something historically stupid and expect us to cater to your stupidity.
jellies_two
Member
You're reading that $2 trillion sounds impressive but it isn't, when the total stock market value of the world is $300 trillion.
Headline: brexit wipes less than 1% off total world market cap in a day!
now that doesn't sound so end-of-times does it.
You can thank me any time.
It is natural in a period of uncertainty for money managers to pull back on risk. They moved some money from stocks to government bonds. Shrug. Totally expected.
I agree, and I think it is going to trigger the brain drain I mentioned before. Everything in terms of higher education and research is going to suffer
I believe they do have the power to suspend us if we fuck around for too long too. So it will be like being outside of the EU, but with none of the negotiations!
No. 2 trillion dollars in one day is not small beans. The global market is valued at over 77 trillion. The entire market lost 3% in ONE DAY.
The global market gains at a rate of 3-4% a year. A YEARS worth of value was gone in a day. This is not small beans. You really have no idea how bad this can get.
Scotland will probably leave. I have no idea why so many Americans are talking about NI joining Ireland. As far as I can tall the only person who has said anything to that effect is a Sein Fein Politician who is obviously going to argue for unification no matter the circumstances anyway.
Kenshin001
Member
Sorry if this has already been answered but what will it mean for Brits working in Europe? Or Polish workers in the UK? I imagine the free movement of labour will no longer apply once the separation with the EU has been formalised.
Well of course I can't expect people to remain silent on everything, but I think there's a pretty big difference between putting out a statement like the Indian Prime Minister, or the Australian Prime Minister or the New Zealand Prime Minister, who all said something along the lines that we would prefer it if the UK stayed but it's not our choice to the US President who flew to the UK and basically helped David Cameron campaign for a remain vote.
NI runs a massive economic deficit too. ROI probably doesn't want them, so their only option would be independance.
Led_Zeppelin
Member
Again you are wrong with your figures of the global market. You aren't taking into account the derivative markets which usually are the ones that are hit the most on this type of scenarios.
The hell it doesn't! More so if it's 3%.
BlastProcessing
Member
The bottom was never going to fall out today, there was always going to be a rebound, but it's a dead cat bounce.
What is going to hurt is the next two years (at minimum) of constant economic uncertainty. It is going to be extremely difficult for the UK to get enough investment in that environment to stave off a recession. From there they ride a downward spiral. Negotiating new trade deals in that environment robs them of leverage, which means bad deals which means even more losses. The whole thing has the potential to mire the European economy for a decade.
More importantly the people of Northern Ireland, well the British Protestant Majority anyway, aren't particularly keen on joining the Republic. See the last hundred years for evidence.
Lots and lots of emergency visas if free movement of labor is gone.
This hasn't been settled yet.
Well, they tried to u-turn on this actually earlier on by saying movement of labour can still be a thing.
They're basically going 'psych!' to all the voters lol
Here we go, the u-turn in this video which they never actually advertised: https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/746466834610692096
QuantumZebra
Member
The US and UK have been practically attached at the hip in everything - I would be surprised if Obama *didn't* campaign for Remain.
I can't believe how nonchalant some people are taking this - this has changed the global socioeconomic landscape in a massive way - and it doesn't look like its a good change.
My only argument is that the Uk won't be at "the back of the queue" when it comes to a trade deal with the US.
As for the trade deal with the EU, well I guess we'll see if the pro-free-trade Dutch, Danish, and Germans manage to overcome the protectionist French and their allies. It's a big shame that the UK will no longer be able to support the free trade countries, but maybe the balance of power shifting from the UK leaving will result in other free trade economies leaving. Maybe we'll end up with rival EUs!
jellies_two
Member
I think you don't know how the markets work. Money is moved from stocks to bonds when there is uncertainty. And money is moved back when things are looking better. Its just volatility doing what volatility does. Nobody is jumping out of windows.
The dow - the biggest component of this $2t fall - has gone from 16000 to 18000 this year, and is now at 17400. Yes it is down 3.3% today but it is up over 10% YTD.
Have some perspective. The trading floors do.
Yup isolationism and just closing borders is a farce the only way terrorism is stopped is by countries working together. Look at how many countries it freaking took to stop Hitler,mussolini and Japan. This is absolutely parts of humanity reverting to a dark age.
I actually dream of a world without borders and just not just being aligned with just one country. It would be great I could just decide to work and live just about anywhere without any red tape. People let stupid fear of a small amount of people destroy something that can and has benefit a lot of people.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
When your only argument is that the damage wasn't really bad even though it was completely and totally avoidable, you've lost.
We know for a fact this is bad in the short term because just witnessed it in the financial world but no one has made a numbers oriented case as to why this is will be a net positive in the medium to long term.
We know for a fact this is bad in the short term because just witnessed it in the financial world but no one has made a numbers oriented case as to why this is will be a net positive in the medium to long term.
It pretty much will.
The UK will have to restart negotiations instead of riding the coattail of the EU deal.
the EU will take precedence because the EU has bigger leverage too.
For the French they just have to wait for a year or so that the government change, the next one should be more liberal (in the French sense of the word).
For this EU deal, it's great news for the French government.
I understand enough to know there will be enough uncertainty that will still cause a drop and you trivilzing 2 trillion is insane.
Also. its down year over year. Which also says as much. Than just ytd.
Baloonatic
Member
I apologise for making this but it popped into my head while trying to get to sleep.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Sure, we do rely on the UK for some stuff (though I'll point out that the UK is only one party in the Five Eyes network, and could certainly be replaced). Do you agree that the UK relies much more on the US? Because that's how leverage works.
Eh, I'm a mathematician by trade, and all of these posts are all of our opinions. Take it as you want. But in any deal, the only thing that matters is how much leverage you have. The UK just gave up an insane amount of leverage, and got literally nothing in return for it ("We're independent now!" doesn't really make negotiators over trade give a crap).
The UK shouldn't be punished as a goal, but that's still the outcome. The overall point is that every nation does what it can to secure the best for itself. The UK gave up massive leverage (since Europe as a whole is waaaaaaay more important that any of its individual nations), and we (the US) aren't going to just give up our new leverage in the soon-to-be negotiated trade agreements we'll want.
It's a global world, and has been for decades. Brexit has consequences for other countries, and they're going to voice an opinion on that. If you don't care what the US does in response to this, you're being foolish. If you do care, then it becomes a factor in your decision making process.
This is an insane post on a video game forum haha. Diplomacy is about getting what you want for minimum cost. This is now easier for the US in relation to the UK since the UK just voluntarily ditched the rest of Europe, which buoyed all of our deals. You're naive as hell if you think we'll just go, "Oh, I heard Brexit is giving you guys a tough time, but don't worry, we'll just hold up every single deal we've ever made with y'all even though you're much more likely now to fail to hold up your end. What are friends for?"
That's a Disney channel movie, not high pressure negotiation between countries, one of which is the most powerful economy on Earth.
jellies_two
Member
I'd like to use your crystal ball because you must own one, how else can you be so certain with your doom scenario. Downward spirals. No leverage. Bad deals. More losses. Mired european economy. Decades.
If you are confident in all this there are a whole bunch of ETFs you can buy that will make you very (obscenely) wealthy then you can use those profits and donate them to the people in need. But actually I suspect you don't have that confidence in your doom scenario it is just nice to let the words pour out of the keyboard.
D
Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
How does the UK leaving the EU have fuck all to do with him (and, by extension, the United States)?
Steady on mate
Which was obviously misleading as Obama will soon be gone, yet the people who won't are bending over backwards to acknowledge that what Obama said will not be the case.
Technologies such as Jet Engine propulsion and nuclear fusion, where the UK sent all of their scientists and all of their data to help the US develop those technologies. Infrastructure such as the "Five Eyes" data collection infrastructure for Europe.
There is an expectation that when you share such technology and infrastructure that you will be supported in other ways (such as a free trade deal between allies).
-Plasma Reus-
Service guarantees member status
You're wrong about Scotland. Sturgeon was already receiving calls to hold a ref for next May. She is waiting before calling for one. Speaking with EU to see how much support Scotland will get for going independent. The EU will very likely fast track Scotland bar one or two things (Spain acting up) for EU membership.
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