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[timewyrm]

Are people under the illusion that Microsoft can decide to launch a new console generation and the entire market will follow? I mean, they can if they want it to be a complete failure
Microsoft is in no position to dictate terms or time frames to publishers and the market as a whole, they don't control any market of significance or have a brand new toy like Kinect 2 that excites publishers

The launch dates of next gen depend far more on Son'y and the third party publishers decisions

I don't necessarily agree; if MS were to possess a usp that consumers were desperate for (although unlikely), I don't think it would make much difference whether Sony followed suit or not.

Take the example given earlier in this thread of MS buying AMD; if they could then offer current top spec gpus in the X2, and offer the X2 at a fraction of the cost of a similar spec pc, I think they'd have a real chance at capturing the market (imo anyway).

 

[Snakeyes]

The launch dates of next gen depend far more on Son'y and the third party publishers decisions

Several third party publishers have been asking for shorter hardware cycles.

 

[Bgamer90]

I'm expecting 2018 at the earliest. 2017 is too early.

2016 is pretty packed for the system so having the next Xbox come out in 2017 would be strange (at least to me). I think we will see a system redesign in one of those two years though.

 

[PHOENIXZERO]

2017? A little. MS might feel they need to get a head start especially with the weaker hardware. 2018? No, I expect 2018 to be the start of the next generation with 2019 being the absolute latest. Last gen lasting 7/8 years without successors was awful, this gen lasting 5/6 years and having full backwards compatibility would probably be for the best.

 

[Dysun]

2018 is the earliest it can happen, even then I'd be mildly surprised

 

[Snakeyes]

The thing is, in the battle between Sony and MS, Nintendo doesn't matter. It's been pretty clear on the home console side of things that the real battle is between Sony and Microsoft. Yes, Wii was a super success, but it was just the lightning bolt the stemmed the inevitable downward console cycle which continued with U. Even if NX hits next year, I really don't see it doing much, if anything, to MS and Sony's console business. Portable side is a different matter of course, since it looks like Sony's not going to go back there.

It's only "inevitable" because Nintendo stubbornly refuses to adapt to modern trends in the market.

 

[anothertech]

I'm positive all game companies are going to watch and weigh in on the Impact VR has on gaming and consumer buying habits over the next couple of years.

Nintendo is the only one that will release as early as 2017 if not sooner.

MS will release 2019/20 earliest is my bet, just before Sony.

 

[kswiston]

Several third party publishers have been asking for shorter hardware cycles.

No one was asking for shorter gens in 2011, which was either year 5 or 6 of last gen depending on which console you wanted to use as your measuring stick. That would already put us at 2018-2019 for this gen.

The complaining mostly started in 2013, and even then a lot of last gen stuff was huge. Just because Ubisoft couldn't milk Assassins' Creed indefinitely doesn't mean that everyone else was doing poorly.

Also, the conventional wisdom was that a generation refresh would allow better returns on new IP (which were flopping in 2012-2013), but here we are and that hasn't really been true.

 

[Vigilant Walrus]

Xbox Surface. Microsoft is becoming a hardware/software company, and doing their own ecosystem. The entire point was always that Xbox was just a trojan horse for a PC in the living room. Roku, Apple TV, Netflix, HBO GO, the name of the game is subscription services.
It's not about installbase anymore because the revenue is from all over.


Xbox One redesign- With the OS on a separate SSD so everything is blazingly fast. pick your own HDD/SSD for storage. Cheaper. more expandability.

And start doing the value thing. There are millions and millions of people who are waiting for the Netflix/Spotify/HBO Go/Amazon Prime/Apple Music/whatever train. they have to increase the insentive.

What do I get if I get XBox Live Gold? You need to give me some serious fucking benefits on the other services. It needs to make sense. And the less individual payment plans and accounts I need the better. Thats why your xbox account should really just be a microsoft account. And thats why your xbox-xbox360 and xbox one games should work on PC.

Microsoft has the PC market, so take advantage of it. Its the one thing that Sony can't do. If I knew that all the stuff I bought on Xbox also was accessable on PC, shared between the devices. If I knew that Sunset Overdrive would work on PC, that would.. that would be a completely different way at looking at value.


People used to mock xbox saying that it was just a shitty pc in a tiny box. Now its the reverse. And as far as XBox Live- I mean, if they are going to make the spectator, the e-sport, the clan communities and dedicated servers (letting players use their own computers as dedicated servers, or hiring like on PC) that would go ways to make the experience better. Getting more MMOs and 64 versus games on the console.


Next console its going to be the same shit. they push the graphical envelope again, followed by another generation of drama of "why no 60 fps???". the incremental benefits in launching a 400 dollars product also becomes more and more narrow, and budget for AAA gaming keeps going up. It's more and more and more malleable.

The model they have been running on worked in times of analog consoles but doesn't make much sense in the current climate, and compared to what peoples smartphones can do, PS4 and Xbox One are dinosaurs.

 

[iMax]

The Xbone isn't nearly unnecessarily enough to merit an entirely new version. It's doing perfectly fine, just losing out to Ps4 is all.

Wouldn't mind a redesign though, still can't get the fat VCR look out of my head, easily my least favourite console design this gen. Not that the Ps4 or Wii U designs are blowing minds.

It's an AV box, not a Turner prize nomination. I want it to be invisible.

 

[autoduelist]

Several third party publishers have been asking for shorter hardware cycles.

While I tend to think we're in for another long cycle (I know I have no interest in buying another console anytime soon, and I bought a PS4 day 1)... let's assume, for a second, that you're correct and that 3rd party is pressing for a short cycle -- do you really think Sony would let MS get another year jump on them? So what you're basically asking for is a short cycle where we get two new consoles in 2017/2018, and I do not believe the market can support that. People are still -just- buying into this gen now! We're only at 30 million for the dominant console, and BF shows there is still huge demand.

Why in the world would the console manufacturers be amped to start a new gen when this one is just kicking into gear? At best, you might luck out and might match the sales they're doing already, and at worst, you alienate your customer base and cause a console bust cycle. For what?

The majority of console owners don't even start buying till year 3 or 4, and for them, it's a brand new console. I think early adopters forget this.

 

[AmyS]

-2018- No, I would not be surprised. But would mean plenty of overlap between Xbox One and Xbox Next

-2017- Yeah, I would be surprised, but that's not going to happen. The hardware would have to be almost done already and dev kits going out in a matter of weeks or a couple months from right now. Again, not happening.

 

[kswiston]

Microsoft has the PC market, so take advantage of it. Its the one thing that Sony can't do. If I knew that all the stuff I bought on Xbox also was accessable on PC, shared between the devices. If I knew that Sunset Overdrive would work on PC, that would.. that would be a completely different way at looking at value.

The problem here is that Microsoft doesn't really have the PC market. Yes, those games largely run on Windows, but Windows is an open platform, and the vast majority of PC games are sold on other storefronts.

1) Why would anyone other than first party Microsoft be interested in taking one paycheck for console and PC versions of their game?

2) Why would Microsoft give you the option of running their first party lineup on PC, negating any need to buy their console?

 

[Cereal Enthusiast]

Don't forget the slim version.

I'm pretty confident that we're going to get an Xbox One Slim at this E3, with a launch in september 2016 alongside Gears 4 and a price drop. It could relaunch the console IMO.

 

[TylerDurden4321]

End of 2018 earliest, because publisher's wouldn't be ready with AAA eye-candy games using the benefits of the new architecture.

What I could see is them never doing another Xbox, but instead doing "premium Windows gaming machines" and cheap PC-to-TV streaming boxes starting in 2017 and adding backwards compatibility to all former Xbox games (origina, 360 and One) on the Windows 10 store using the same virtual-machine idea they now use for 360 compatibility on XB1.

 

[autoduelist]

Don't forget the slim version.

I'm pretty confident that we're going to get an Xbox One Slim at this E3, with a launch in september 2016 alongside Gears 4 and a price drop. It could relaunch the console IMO.

Chasing that dream is the road to despair. It's doing fine as is.

 

[mrklaw]

While I tend to think we're in for another long cycle (I know I have no interest in buying another console anytime soon, and I bought a PS4 day 1)... let's assume, for a second, that you're correct and that 3rd party is pressing for a short cycle -- do you really think Sony would let MS get another year jump on them? So what you're basically asking for is a short cycle where we get two new consoles in 2017/2018, and I do not believe the market can support that. People are still -just- buying into this gen now! We're only at 30 million for the dominant console, and BF shows there is still huge demand.

Why in the world would the console manufacturers be amped to start a new gen when this one is just kicking into gear? At best, you might luck out and might match the sales they're doing already, and at worst, you alienate your customer base and cause a console bust cycle. For what?

The majority of console owners don't even start buying till year 3 or 4, and for them, it's a brand new console. I think early adopters forget this.

Why not short cycle? The early adopters will be 4 years into the gen and quite possibly ready for something new. Keep x86 so developers can code for Xbox one and Xbox Two at the same time. That minimises the risk and spreads the cost.

Value conscious buyers still buy Xbox one based on price. Then four years later you bring out Xbox three and phase out support for Xbox one - only ever needing to support two consoles at a time

I think the market since Xbox 360 has changed so much that people are conditioned to paying for upgraded tech.

 

[Navid]

While I would think that 2017 (especially) and 2018 are too early to launch a new console, I wouldn't be surprised by a move from MS to have a new console out in late 2018 depending on how 2016-17 goes for them.

 

[kswiston]

End of 2018 earliest, because publisher's wouldn't be ready with AAA eye-candy games using the benefits of the new architecture.

It might change in the near future with Fallout 4 or Black Ops 3, but I am pretty sure the best selling PS4+XB1 title to date is still a remastered last gen title (GTA V). This is the first year where most third parties have decided to ditch last generation versions, and people are already asking when they will be getting new hardware...

Let's see what we get from this generation first.

Also the people bringing up the smart phone model seem to conveniently forget that 99% of the software for those phones are designed for 3-4 hardware generations back, and that those phones are largely subsidized/set up on payment plans. Why would you want a situation where you are basically playing XB1 level games with better framerates and higher resolutions for the next decade on your XB2 and probably 3 just for the sake of saying you have better hardware? PC already exists for that.

 

[Kyzer]

If they did they're just opening themselves up to further pain when Sony rides out their success for few extra years and enters the next gen with specs that would blow the new xbox out of the water within the same generation..

 

[PHOENIXZERO]

End of 2018 earliest, because publisher's wouldn't be ready with AAA eye-candy games using the benefits of the new architecture.

What I could see is them never doing another Xbox, but instead doing "premium Windows gaming machines" and cheap PC-to-TV streaming boxes starting in 2017 and adding backwards compatibility to all former Xbox games (origina, 360 and One) on the Windows 10 store using the same virtual-machine idea they now use for 360 compatibility on XB1.

In all likelihood the next gen would just be an evolution of the current architecture though minus the XBO's memory set up. I'm fairly sure the days of developers having to rebuild their tools and everything from from the ground up with a new generation are long gone.

 

[autoduelist]

Why not short cycle? The early adopters will be 4 years into the gen and quite possibly ready for something new. Keep x86 so developers can code for Xbox one and Xbox Two at the same time. That minimises the risk and spreads the cost.

Value conscious buyers still buy Xbox one based on price. Then four years later you bring out Xbox three and phase out support for Xbox one - only ever needing to support two consoles at a time

I think the market since Xbox 360 has changed so much that people are conditioned to paying for upgraded tech.

Because the majority of the console base is perfectly willing to buy in late to a gen once there has been a price cut (or three) because it's still 'the new gen' and every game on the shelf still works for it. You are talking about alienating the majority of console buyers [late buyers] by antiquating their device just as, or even before, they bought it.

Do not confuse early adopters for the console base. It's an easy mistake to make, because we've owned PS4s / XB1s for years now. But we are not the majority of sales - not even close. Console manufacturers need to court the buyers 4-6 years in, not the Day 1 buyers -- the early adopters will be in, next gen, regardless. But late buyers still want the 'new console', even if it's 5 years old.

 

[Snakeyes]

While I tend to think we're in for another long cycle (I know I have no interest in buying another console anytime soon, and I bought a PS4 day 1)... let's assume, for a second, that you're correct and that 3rd party is pressing for a short cycle -- do you really think Sony would let MS get another year jump on them? So what you're basically asking for is a short cycle where we get two new consoles in 2017/2018, and I do not believe the market can support that. People are still -just- buying into this gen now! We're only at 30 million for the dominant console, and BF shows there is still huge demand.

Why in the world would the console manufacturers be amped to start a new gen when this one is just kicking into gear? At best, you might luck out and might match the sales they're doing already, and at worst, you alienate your customer base and cause a console bust cycle. For what?

Totally. Even in this thread you've got people arguing that Microsoft would accomplish nothing by launching early because of the dominant PS4 - I wouldn't be surprised if part of the PS team shared the same opinion.

I've said before that 2017 is probably not happening, but 2018 would be a realistic option for Xbox.

 

[omonimo]

The Xbox One is selling fantastically, just not as fantastically as the PS4. It'd be nothing short of idiotic to cut its lifespan short unless sales started to drop off.

At the moment however, yes it would be surprising because Microsoft aren't completely stupid.

It's the first time I see a console selling fantastically drops the price so fantastically.

 

[Steverulez]

No one was asking for shorter gens in 2011, which was either year 5 or 6 of last gen depending on which console you wanted to use as your measuring stick. That would already put us at 2018-2019 for this gen.

The complaining mostly started in 2013, and even then a lot of last gen stuff was huge. Just because Ubisoft couldn't milk Assassins' Creed indefinitely doesn't mean that everyone else was doing poorly.

Also, the conventional wisdom was that a generation refresh would allow better returns on new IP (which were flopping in 2012-2013), but here we are and that hasn't really been true.

Well I think showing off Watch Dogs and Star Wars 1313 at E3 2012 was a pretty big indication that pubs were wanting it to happen. Also what they say publicly vs what they were poking MS and Sony to do behind closed doors we'll never know.

Last-gen being so long worked out for Sony better than it did MS too (in the end), kind of questionable why MS didn't try to get their noses ahead again. But then Mattrick-era MS was hardly built on the basis of smart decision making I guess, Kinect aside they were quite content just coasting through.

 

[Bgamer90]

It's the first time I see a console selling fantastically drops the price so fantastically.

I know. $299 for both the PS4 and Xbox right now. We had to wait a long time to see consoles at these prices last gen.

 

[slavesnyder]

I hope they ask the big publishers like EA, Ubi, Activision and so on.
They will tell them that 2017/2018 is no good idea.

 

[hullostranger]

Think both of them will target late 2018 or early 2019 tbh. Anything sooner is pointless. Especially with the drawn out development cycles for most AAA games now.

And talk of a souped XB1 mid cycle isn't happening. It'll be a PR nightmare. I have a feeling VR/AR might be a big push for next gen. More shiney graphics aren't going to cut it for the most part.

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

2017? Yeah too soon. 2018? Well that'd be about on schedule with most other consoles not of the 7th gen tbh.

People do need to kind of chill on PS4's success being the key motivating factor here, though. I'm sure MS's looking at that and saying "daaaaaammmnnnnnnn sexy!" but then they go in the mirror and say "'ya know what? I don't look so bad myself."

 

[AnthonypUK]

It's the first time I see a console selling fantastically drops the price so fantastically.

and stops reporting their fantastic console sales

 

[statham]

I know. $299 for both the PS4 and Xbox right now. We had to wait a long time to see consoles at these prices last gen.

360 launched at $299

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

I really don't want to see a new Xbox or ps4 until 2020.I'm not a fan of the old short console cycle.

 

[kswiston]

I know. $299 for both the PS4 and Xbox right now. We had to wait a long time to see consoles at these prices last gen.

Ignoring the fact that you are using isolated Black Friday prices, you just have a faulty memory. The 360 core model launched at $299. The 20GB model was $350 as of Aug 2007.

The base PS3 had a $100 price cut a year into its lifespan, even if that only took it down to $399. It also had constant hard drive size increases.

 

[RPGamer92]

360 launched at $299

That SKU didn't even have an HDMI port in it.

 

[Snakeyes]

I know. $299 for both the PS4 and Xbox right now. We had to wait a long time to see consoles at these prices last gen.

Last gen was an outlier. Even the PS2 dropped from 299 to 199 after two years on the market despite its monster sales.

 

[mrklaw]

Because the majority of the console base is perfectly willing to buy in late to a gen once there has been a price cut (or three) because it's still 'the new gen' and every game on the shelf still works for it. You are talking about alienating the majority of console buyers [late buyers] by antiquating their device just as, or even before, they bought it.

Do not confuse early adopters for the console base. It's an easy mistake to make, because we've owned PS4s / XB1s for years now. But we are not the majority of sales - not even close. Console manufacturers need to court the buyers 4-6 years in, not the Day 1 buyers -- the early adopters will be in, next gen, regardless. But late buyers still want the 'new console', even if it's 5 years old.

That's the previous model. I think you can change that without alienating people.

 

[xxracerxx]

That SKU didn't even have an HDMI port in it.

Still launched at that price.

 

[omonimo]

I know. $299 for both the PS4 and Xbox right now. We had to wait a long time to see consoles at these prices last gen.

That's not exactly true. By the way MS has dropped the price so fast only because they didn't sell that well.
Back to the thread yeah surely the new Xbox will come an year before the next ps5.

 

[Steverulez]

That SKU didn't even have an HDMI port in it.

Neither Xbox 360 model launched with an HDMI port

 

[kswiston]

That SKU didn't even have an HDMI port in it.

None of them did for the first year and a half.

That's the previous model. I think you can change that without alienating people.

I think you overestimate the number of electronic devices that people are willing to upgrade on a regular basis. See the current e-reader, tablet, and TV industries that banked on faster turnover.

 

[30yearsofhurt]

Maybe someone should start up a Next-Gen prediction thread so we can all make ourselves look stupid. Again.
My predictions:
Sony - Doooomed.
Microsoft - Doooooooooomed
Nintendo - Nintendo gonna Nintendo

 

[daTRUballin]

I doubt they're going to make a new console that early. The Xbox One's situation is nowhere near as bad as the original Xbox's was.

Plus, MS's first parties (and maybe third parties in general) have pretty much JUST started to familiarize themselves with the hardware and haven't released enough games to justify there being a new console. If they were to switch development over to the next Xbox, it's going to throw them off.

 

[Chezzymann]

Im betting on the new Xbox coming in 2018. So no I won't be surprised. 2017? Yeah, that's too soon. 5 years is the minimum for a console that's a selling decent.

 

[Leflus]

I'm still going with Slimbone in 2016 and Xbox "Two" in 2019

I think they're going to release at least one more mainline Halo before they retire the XBO, and those games usually require 3 years of development.

 

[BeforeU]

Im betting on the new Xbox coming in 2018. So no I won't be surprised. 2017? Yeah, that's too soon. 5 years is the minimum for a console that's a selling decent.

yup 2018 is my bet.

also full VR and Hololense support? #believe lol

 

[BossDarkseid]

I'm thinking announcements in 2018, release in 2019 and cross-gen stuff persisting until 2021 and a smidge beyond. Anything about higher resolutions will really depend on how 4k stuff is adopted in the next few years, and I would imagine neither Sony, MS or Nintendo will want to price a console at...I'm going to say above $399, 499 max. Although it really depends on the featureset and power.

I know people think next gen will just be more 1080p/30fps but it'd be cool if a big dev/publisher took a stand and said their standard will be 1080p/60fps to get some sort of push towards that. Or for an interview with devs, and artists in particular, and their thoughts on a higher framerate vs higher resolution. There'd be no prizes for suggesting the parts that make up the next gen consoles will be based on PC tech from this year or yesteryear, I'd wager. Will be interesting to see what the NX is like, because if they do launch next year, or even in 2017, it's basically a gen .5 unless Nintendo go full Kuturagi.

 

[Sulik2]

The Xbone is selling better then the 360. There is no reason to do a rushed four year generation when you are selling that well. It will be 2018 and a normal five year console cycle.

 

[Frog-fu]

Announced in Q3 2018 and launching in Q3 2019 is what I'm optimistic for.

 

[Steverulez]

Announced in late 2018 and launching in late 2019 is what I'm hoping for.

I don't see MS or Sony announcing a console a year before release anymore, same year but earlier seems to be the preferred method now

 

[Joco]

The proliferation of online services has dramatically extended the lifespan of consoles. I'd be surprised if Microsoft launched a new console before 2019.