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Would anyone be surprised by a new XBOX in 2017/2018 ?
- Thread starter Pachinko
- Start date
Mass Effect
Member
I can't see 2017 happening at all outside of some re-branding of the Xbox (like it becoming more of a service model). 2018 I think is also too soon, but I wouldn't be surprised. 2019 is really the earliest I think makes sense.
I would be surprised because I don't think MS or 3rd parties would be ready by 2017, I mean it took them a year to get the Xbox One OS to the point where it was as functional as 360 and I still think it needs a lot of work. If you look at the NX, it was "announced" this year and I would be surprised if that released next year.
If MS wanted to be aggressive I could see them launching the next console will full backwards compatibility and also making cross gen ports really easy at a lower price point with mediocre hardware improvements. Windows on Xbox makes this possible where it's not yearly iterations but every few years you can upgrade but all the games work within an Xbox hardware ecosystem with lots of form factors. They're kind of going for something similar with the Xbox gaming push on Windows 10 but who knows if they'll take the ideas far enough and actually pull it off.
If MS wanted to be aggressive I could see them launching the next console will full backwards compatibility and also making cross gen ports really easy at a lower price point with mediocre hardware improvements. Windows on Xbox makes this possible where it's not yearly iterations but every few years you can upgrade but all the games work within an Xbox hardware ecosystem with lots of form factors. They're kind of going for something similar with the Xbox gaming push on Windows 10 but who knows if they'll take the ideas far enough and actually pull it off.
I'm sure Sony and MS expect their consoles to last for awhile. They have R&D departments, they know what future tech looks like or presume atleast and I think they build these machines to have a life expectancy of 10 years, even if the gen doesn't really last that long.
Console development is expensive and an investment.
Console development is expensive and an investment.
The Abominable Snowman
Member
I could kind of see some Xbox One Oculus Rift edition, that delivers solid 2 player 90/120fps 2160x1200. That would be awesome.
wanderjahr
Banned
i) they pitched it terribly
ii) they pitched it terribly
iii) they pitched it terribly
ftfy
Imperfected
Member
I don't think they're going to have made enough back on game royalties and Live to justify trying to end the generation in 2017. That's where the bread is buttered these days, and cutting off the tail of the revenue stream for the sake of... hemorrhaging money on production and marketing for a new generation(?) seems extremely counter-intuitive.
The only wild-card is VR. If VR really takes off and the current generation consoles just can't keep up, even with Morpheus-style add-ons, it might cause an early shift. That said, I think the public reception to VR will be more in line with blu-ray and 1080p+ TVs in terms of uptake; ie, it probably won't transition fast enough to short-circuit this generation.
The only wild-card is VR. If VR really takes off and the current generation consoles just can't keep up, even with Morpheus-style add-ons, it might cause an early shift. That said, I think the public reception to VR will be more in line with blu-ray and 1080p+ TVs in terms of uptake; ie, it probably won't transition fast enough to short-circuit this generation.
No, I wouldn't be surprised at all. It's clear that the Xbox One has been a problematic product for Microsoft, and the failure of the Xbox One in multiple territories (EU and JP being the big ones) is going to lead to much earlier discussions about the Xbox Two.
Do I think an early launch strategy will work? No, not anymore. I think the Xbox brand is going the way of the Sega brand -- relevance in one market, irrelevance in all others. The problem for Microsoft is that they erroneously positioned the Xbox as the cool, new, and hip product. This is the exact same mistake that Sega made.
Unfortunately, 'coolness' is based on popularity. Globally, the Xbox brand has become an unpopular brand. This is the heart of the problem. It won't matter if Microsoft 'get the jump' on Sony and launch early. There are simply not enough people in the world who think the Xbox is cool anymore. To make matters worse, PlayStation has become -- through deliberate design and marketing efforts -- the best console to play videogames. This has led to PlayStation becoming the popular device to own for gaming. Remember how Sega became cool with the Genesis, and then PlayStation came about and became the 'it' brand, thus killing Sega's entire brand personality? Same thing is happening. Sony are positioning the PlayStation brand in a way that will make it near impossible for the Xbox Two to be a traditional gaming console, because the market of traditional console gaming is moving to PlayStation.
Assuming the Xbox One ends it's two year life with 17 million consoles sold, and assuming the Xbox One sales remain steady over the next two years, the Xbox One will end its life with 34 million consoles sold, reminiscent of the Nintendo 64 performance. How many of those 34 million people are going to show up in year one for the Xbox Two? 6 million? Is that enough for global publisher and developer support?
If the answer is no, then what will incentivize publishers and developers to jump ship and invest significant sums of money to support a new and unproven platform from Microsoft? What will Activision/Capcom/Take2/Warner/Zenimax/Ubisoft/Square/Disney etc. be able to accomplish, financially, on the Xbox Two that they cannot accomplish on the PS4? If the answer is not much, then those publishers are going to kick their shoes off, grab a Coors Light, grab a handful of salted almonds, and wait for the PS5. This means that an early launch for the Xbox Two will be met with low publisher, low developer, and low consumer support. That would be a wrap for Xbox consoles.
The opposing view to all of this is an early launch worked for the 360. That's true, but the reality is that Sony's horrendous decisions ($599.99 being the king of them all) are what made the Xbox 360 worthy of investment from pubs, devs, and cons. If you think Sony are going to repeat those awful decisions then you haven't been paying attention to their recent management of PlayStation.
Do I think an early launch strategy will work? No, not anymore. I think the Xbox brand is going the way of the Sega brand -- relevance in one market, irrelevance in all others. The problem for Microsoft is that they erroneously positioned the Xbox as the cool, new, and hip product. This is the exact same mistake that Sega made.
Unfortunately, 'coolness' is based on popularity. Globally, the Xbox brand has become an unpopular brand. This is the heart of the problem. It won't matter if Microsoft 'get the jump' on Sony and launch early. There are simply not enough people in the world who think the Xbox is cool anymore. To make matters worse, PlayStation has become -- through deliberate design and marketing efforts -- the best console to play videogames. This has led to PlayStation becoming the popular device to own for gaming. Remember how Sega became cool with the Genesis, and then PlayStation came about and became the 'it' brand, thus killing Sega's entire brand personality? Same thing is happening. Sony are positioning the PlayStation brand in a way that will make it near impossible for the Xbox Two to be a traditional gaming console, because the market of traditional console gaming is moving to PlayStation.
Assuming the Xbox One ends it's two year life with 17 million consoles sold, and assuming the Xbox One sales remain steady over the next two years, the Xbox One will end its life with 34 million consoles sold, reminiscent of the Nintendo 64 performance. How many of those 34 million people are going to show up in year one for the Xbox Two? 6 million? Is that enough for global publisher and developer support?
If the answer is no, then what will incentivize publishers and developers to jump ship and invest significant sums of money to support a new and unproven platform from Microsoft? What will Activision/Capcom/Take2/Warner/Zenimax/Ubisoft/Square/Disney etc. be able to accomplish, financially, on the Xbox Two that they cannot accomplish on the PS4? If the answer is not much, then those publishers are going to kick their shoes off, grab a Coors Light, grab a handful of salted almonds, and wait for the PS5. This means that an early launch for the Xbox Two will be met with low publisher, low developer, and low consumer support. That would be a wrap for Xbox consoles.
The opposing view to all of this is an early launch worked for the 360. That's true, but the reality is that Sony's horrendous decisions ($599.99 being the king of them all) are what made the Xbox 360 worthy of investment from pubs, devs, and cons. If you think Sony are going to repeat those awful decisions then you haven't been paying attention to their recent management of PlayStation.
360 launched at $299
I remember the core bundle; Just rarely put it into consideration due to the hard drive pretty much being a necessity.
_____________
Yes, I remember. Definitely was a good choice due to the new add-ons that came out shortly after.
Overall, I'm happy that this gen has great deals pretty early (attractively priced SKUs including free major games).
We will not see the next gen console from MS and Sony until 2020, 2019 at the earliest. Games are taking longer to make, example COD is going form a 2 year dev cycle to 3. Developers need more time to make games and create new franchises and so console cycles have to increase. Also I definitely think MS is gong to release another Xbox, MS has been more focused on hardware than they have ever before and I honesty think they are just starting to get good at it(Surface pro/book)
Next gen is going to be very interesting for the consoles.
You have Sony having learnt from there mistake with the PS3 and already applying to the PS4. I see the PS5 being a console which is consumer/developer friendly, priced reasonably and sufficiently powered.
You have MS having just learnt from there mistakes from the XB1, the console will be a games console first, reasonably priced, developer friendly and not be weaker than the PS5.
Both will still be charging for online.
Only a few things that will differentiate the systems apart form the exclusives games. You have Sony with PSVR, which could be a major bonus if it has a mass market appeal. Sony will also be riding on the momentum created by the PS4. You have MS with the 'Power of the Cloud' which again could be major if Crackdown 3 works out.
Anyone else feel the lead up, the discussion and anticipation of the next consoles launch is in some ways more interesting and entertaining than the console cycle itself?
Next gen is going to be very interesting for the consoles.
You have Sony having learnt from there mistake with the PS3 and already applying to the PS4. I see the PS5 being a console which is consumer/developer friendly, priced reasonably and sufficiently powered.
You have MS having just learnt from there mistakes from the XB1, the console will be a games console first, reasonably priced, developer friendly and not be weaker than the PS5.
Both will still be charging for online.
Only a few things that will differentiate the systems apart form the exclusives games. You have Sony with PSVR, which could be a major bonus if it has a mass market appeal. Sony will also be riding on the momentum created by the PS4. You have MS with the 'Power of the Cloud' which again could be major if Crackdown 3 works out.
Anyone else feel the lead up, the discussion and anticipation of the next consoles launch is in some ways more interesting and entertaining than the console cycle itself?
What hurt Sega was releasing so many add-ons/systems that caused them to lose the trust of consumers and companies that made popular games. Microsoft isn't doing that and therefore the brand isn't in the same position that Sega was in after 1995 or so. The "coolness" of the Sega brand went hand-in-hand with the Genesis. Once Sega start releasing add-ons, the coolness went away since the advertising wasn't focused on one product.
The 360 will pretty much be dead when 2016 starts. Sega back in 1995 had Genesis, Sega CD, 32X, Saturn, etc. All of those systems greatly ate into Sega's "hip" view before the PS1 released. The SNES got more attention around this time -- especially thanks to games like Donkey Kong Country.
This could be said about any new console. Nothing's guaranteed in terms of everyone from a console's userbase moving over to that console's successor. As long as the console does solid in software sales then it will continue on being supported. I'm expecting next gen consoles to be even more like PCs so multiplatform game support should be even easier.
They've lost lots of market share in a few very important markets and I don't see them winning ground back this gen. Sony's brand won't be getting weaker either. If they're staying in the console business they either need to launch a year earlier than the competition again or have a significantly more appealing machine next time around.
SallyIsNow
Banned
Woah, calm down lads. There's people in here talking like the XBONE is doing Wii U numbers.
What's the tech landscape looking like for meaningful advances in performance at an acceptable cost? We have HBM which should be mature in a couple of years but anything on the horizon that would bring more FLOPs to the table? Assuming a fixed die size around the current level and a 150W power ceiling.
If the xbox one has flopping, i feel that would be super concerned. Its not though the sales number are right where it is expected to. The ps4 has just had an incredible two years of sales. They are in fine shape. By your logic apple shouldn't be in the computer business becuase Microsoft base pc's are massively outselling them. You don't have to have the best selling product to make money. This whole console war, means very little outside of the internet.
I think the best balance for the entire industry; from console makers, to 1st / 3rd party developers, publishers, as well as the general gaming masses / consumers, would be if Microsoft & Sony revealed next generation consoles in early 2019, followed by a 4th quarter 2019 launch of Xbox4 / PS5 in both North America and Europe.
All other markets and countries aside from NA and EU, would see the new consoles launch during 2020.
A Q4 2019 start for next gen in the west is neither too soon, nor too far away, IMO.
It would be a nice 6 years for both Xbox One and PS4 with some years of support still left for these consoles, especially PS4.
All other markets and countries aside from NA and EU, would see the new consoles launch during 2020.
A Q4 2019 start for next gen in the west is neither too soon, nor too far away, IMO.
It would be a nice 6 years for both Xbox One and PS4 with some years of support still left for these consoles, especially PS4.
I can hardly imagine developer tools changing that much. This wouldn't be like a 360 to XB1 architecture change. The architecture would be PC-based, as with the XB1, therefore the transition from the developer side shouldn't be wildly difficult. Consumers might be an entirely different story. And on that I agree with you. That said, I'd be down to buy XB2 in 2018.
RoslindaleOne
Member
I'd be fine with this gen being 5-6 years. I was hoping for more of a graphical leap this gen then from last.
What A Time To Be Alive
Member
Why do people say this? A system redesign is never coming for the Xbox One. Microsoft's engineers are to scared about what may happen if they slim the console down. Both the XB1 and the PS4 will look the same for the entire generation.
With 10nm chips going into production in 2016 and 7nm chips supposedly going into production in 2017, we could see a pretty significant jump in power per watt. The question becomes will AMD have those processes in place for the successors of the Xbox One and PS4 when they're in the design stage. We know HBM 2 will be there which will be pretty significant.
Why would they be scared? Sony and MS done it with the PS3 and 360. It gives hem a chance to resell the console. People tend to wait for the slim models sometimes because by then there is a decent library and the new models are quieter, look better, more power efficient and less likely to break.
Agreed, I don't see what advantage could really be leveraged effectively with an earlier release date. With superior hardware, you're going to have a more expensive entry point and there's no telling what software support there will be to back that fancy new hardware up with.
What A Time To Be Alive
Member
So basically what your saying is turn Xbox into a service.
if people could play said games on PC, what's the purpose of playing those games on Xbox since you can play at higher framerate and resolutions on PC. It would just cause the same problem that's going now between the Xbox One and PS4 but worse. This would basically kill the Xbox One.
Honestly the stupidest thing I heard in this thread.
What A Time To Be Alive
Member
Microsoft has been saying for the longest that they have no plans to redesign the console. i went off the scared angle because I really do think they are nervous of releasing a slimmer console but another thing is that I don't think they care to drop the resources this gen to redesign the console. I just don't see it happening.
The one thing I'm really looking forward to in the next-gen speculation threads and discussions is the absence of the moronic 'The most powerful console never wins!' trope. It was always clear that being the box where the multi-plats that dominate the industry run best would probably determine which box was more successful. Sony delivered that, while MS placed their bet on TV and Kinect being more important than specs. The result was clear long before launch even happened.
You can bet your ass MS won't let that happen again, which means (in my opinion) that we may have a better 'tech competition' next time round, as opposed to this gen's somewhat disappointing specs.
But no, I believe they've sold enough to stick with the XB1 for the next two years at a minimum.
You can bet your ass MS won't let that happen again, which means (in my opinion) that we may have a better 'tech competition' next time round, as opposed to this gen's somewhat disappointing specs.
But no, I believe they've sold enough to stick with the XB1 for the next two years at a minimum.
Yep, lock it in with Forza 8 as a launch title. November 21st, 2019.
Poodlestrike
Banned
2017 would be a shock. 2018... maybe.
I don't think we're gonna get one, though. One Microsoft, one platform. Next Xbox is probably going to be a selection of HTPCs.
I don't think we're gonna get one, though. One Microsoft, one platform. Next Xbox is probably going to be a selection of HTPCs.
autoduelist
Member
That's -the- model. And I don't think it's changing. Consoles are $400+ devices that sit under a tv and play games. They are the type of things people have to convince their spouses to get once the price drops. They are the 'big' gift under the tree, even year 4 or 5 in. And it's all about being able to play the latest games with no fuss, no muss.
The entire console model is predicated on the casual gamer [and I don't mean 'casual' as in match 3 phone games, but rather, the buy and play one or two games a year crowd] that doesn't want any of the complexity of PC... they just want to occasionally go into Target after seeing a commercial for Battlefront and buy it. But they don't want to buy last year's model -- they want to be playing the 'current' version.
And they want their purchase to last them years, because opening your wallet for a $300+ luxury purchase when you've got a family to feed is no easy feat for most people.
gregor7777
Banned
Spot on.
This would go against every non-flop console that released since the Atari 2600 though.
The Xbox One could definitely be smaller and it would be a good way to gain sales since it would attract people who don't have an Xbox One as well as people who already have one. I would be surprised to not see it happen.
________________
It wasn't moronic at all. The previous gens before this current one showed that it wasn't all about power.
This assumes that Microsoft even bothers with a dedicated console platform again, and doesn't spin off the Xbox brand (and game studios) into something else that complements their other hardware successes. I think it is too early to do much speculation on the state of the industry going forward. We are clearly in the middle of a transition.
It doesn't even have to be all that much smaller. The original 360 slim console was only a bit smaller than what came before.
Yeah, I agree. I don't expect something that's the size of the PS2 slim but something that's the size of the original 360 maybe possible.
Will AMD still be around in the future and do we really want a bottom of the barrel CPU again. I don't think Intel will be a choice because of cost, even Nvidia as well so if AMD can't deliver, well you get what you get at the time.
get2sammyb
Member
You guys do realise these consoles cost insane amounts of money to research, design, and release, right? Microsoft may well be unhappy with how the Xbox One is performing, but even for a company of its size, it can't just toss the project aside like it's a piece of trash.
Besides, to launch a new console Microsoft will also need third-party publishers on board, and also have determined a long-term vision for where it wants to go. Do you really think it's going to have all of this done and a cutting-edge new box designed, tested, and ready in less than 24 months?
It ain't happening. We're only just getting to the point where remasters are being replaced by new titles, and some publishers are still releasing their games on the PS3 and 360 alongside the new-gen consoles. Do you really think they're ready to support new systems already?
EDIT: Unless we're talking about slim revisions, in which case I'm sure they'll come soon.
Besides, to launch a new console Microsoft will also need third-party publishers on board, and also have determined a long-term vision for where it wants to go. Do you really think it's going to have all of this done and a cutting-edge new box designed, tested, and ready in less than 24 months?
It ain't happening. We're only just getting to the point where remasters are being replaced by new titles, and some publishers are still releasing their games on the PS3 and 360 alongside the new-gen consoles. Do you really think they're ready to support new systems already?
EDIT: Unless we're talking about slim revisions, in which case I'm sure they'll come soon.
Jack The Nipper
Banned
Microsoft made the wrong gamble with consoles and entertainment. They wanted to be the next big thing with whatever was beyond pcs which was mobile phones.
I almost feel they will go early. Probably 2017.
There are many reasons for this.
1. They are being outsold by quite a bit.
2. There system is weak, as is the ps4 when compared to other devices such as pcs and anything with 4k.
Microsoft does go early I believe Sony should be smart this time. Design a box that will always be equal or less on pricing and wait two years tonreleasw it.
There will be no reason for Sony to match them.same year. If your one year later it makes you more expensive possibly. If you wait two years you have enough room to really stand out and have enough differences to warrant people choosing you over the competition. As well as giving yourself time to have a launch line up that is actually wanted while hacimf a ton of nice launch game ports from the other two hear old Xbox system that actually stands out enough to need it pm the new platform instead.
I almost feel they will go early. Probably 2017.
There are many reasons for this.
1. They are being outsold by quite a bit.
2. There system is weak, as is the ps4 when compared to other devices such as pcs and anything with 4k.
Microsoft does go early I believe Sony should be smart this time. Design a box that will always be equal or less on pricing and wait two years tonreleasw it.
There will be no reason for Sony to match them.same year. If your one year later it makes you more expensive possibly. If you wait two years you have enough room to really stand out and have enough differences to warrant people choosing you over the competition. As well as giving yourself time to have a launch line up that is actually wanted while hacimf a ton of nice launch game ports from the other two hear old Xbox system that actually stands out enough to need it pm the new platform instead.
therealbigrich
Member
I have been thinking about this and I don't think anyone really knows . One side of me thinks well ppl upgrade cell phones, laptops and other tech all the time year after year why not Consoles. They are basically Pcs at this point so making a Console with the Xbox name but it running Windows 10 and making it a PC at different price points would work imo. Making a partnership with steam or something like that would help a lot too. Basically to answer the question though it is possible they release early imo
That's exactly what they're doing. Xbox doesn't mean only a console to them any more, it's a service that they want to reach as far as possible on with Windows 10 devices.
Satya Nadella said:
Microsoft Puts Windows and Games as the Centre of Its Strategy
Phil Spencer said:
From his "The Future of Gaming Across the Microsoft Ecosystem" session at GDC in March this year. Link
Northeastmonk
Gold Member
NO way. I just got to Rise of the Tomb Raider and Killer Instinct.
No way, way too soon 3-4 years is way too soon. Mass Effect, BioShock, Gears of War, and Dead Space had 3 entries last generation.
That's so silly to think this gen is almost done. Not directing that to you OP, but it's silly to me.
What BS is that to announce another console when we haven't even gotten to a 2nd title in a new IP?
There were 3 Souls games out by the time we got to the new consoles. I don't think it'll come that soon.
Edit: Halo had 3 titles last gen. You could go on and on. 4 Halo titles if you include ODST. Gears had 4 too.
No way, way too soon 3-4 years is way too soon. Mass Effect, BioShock, Gears of War, and Dead Space had 3 entries last generation.
That's so silly to think this gen is almost done. Not directing that to you OP, but it's silly to me.
What BS is that to announce another console when we haven't even gotten to a 2nd title in a new IP?
There were 3 Souls games out by the time we got to the new consoles. I don't think it'll come that soon.
Edit: Halo had 3 titles last gen. You could go on and on. 4 Halo titles if you include ODST. Gears had 4 too.
Here's the thing the head start the 360 enjoyed was entirely Sony's fault and will likely never happen again. For one it's almost impossible to release a system without the competition knowing well in advance because you have to make sure 3rd parties are made aware and leaks would inevitably happen. The 360 for instance was heavily rumored for years because of this. If Sony hadn't been so hell bent on launching with Blu-Ray they could have easily launched at the same time. The allure of having the next media standard under their belt is what caused a cash-strapped Sony to sacrifice potential PS3 marketshare and forced them to delay the launch time frame considerably. Even after waiting a year the blue laser diodes were still prohibitively expensive (hence the launch price). If Sony stuck with DVD like MS did with the 360 they could have easily launched at the same time and that year long head start the 360 enjoyed would have never happened. Also of less consequence was the relatively late shift to Nvidia for the GPU and mass manufacturing of the esoteric architecture that was Cell. Sony's obsession with having the next media standard and the crazy hardware aspirations of Ken Kutaragi are what delayed the PS3. None of these things would be an issue for a future Sony console. Microsoft will have to come up with something else in-order to get the leg-up on Sony again. A year head start just won't happen unless Sony allows it which I think is beyond implausible. Especially with both being on x86 hardware. Potential successors should be easy to engineer and plan out and both should offer backwards compatibility out of the box to boot.
Samurai G0SU
Member
Whenever the hololens can be consumer marketable, the next xbox will release right before that.
IbizaPocholo
NeoGAFs Kent Brockman
Please be early 2017.
SlickShoesRUCrazy
Member
Both Microsoft and Sony will announce new consoles in 2018 imo.
2017 is way to early. Hell, 2018 is too early. But I could see an E3 2018 announcement and launch in the end of the year.
But it could be a very problematic situation. I mean, the pros are obvious: launching first gives them an advantage in sales. But in the other hand, they would give Sony a great advantage, which is the info advantage. Sony could strike back with a much more powerful machine and once again the PS5 would be market as the most powerful next gen console, attracting the hardcore. Also, PS5 would be the new hotness and Xbox(?) would fall back into old stuff category. All of this assuming a big gap between both consoles launch, something like 1 year.
But it could be a very problematic situation. I mean, the pros are obvious: launching first gives them an advantage in sales. But in the other hand, they would give Sony a great advantage, which is the info advantage. Sony could strike back with a much more powerful machine and once again the PS5 would be market as the most powerful next gen console, attracting the hardcore. Also, PS5 would be the new hotness and Xbox(?) would fall back into old stuff category. All of this assuming a big gap between both consoles launch, something like 1 year.