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[gundamkyoukai]

i think it's somewhat worrying that the top-selling console in a new generation is selling like a second-place console from the last two generations. the ps4 is doing fine by itself, but it feels like we're missing something here.

I think over all numbers wise the only system PS4 not beating is the Wii since stream going to cross soon .
Plus the market has change so that going to play factor for eg it makes even less sense to own multiply consoles this gen .

 

[GoofsterStud]

Wording is pretty important around here, for future reference. We see an important distinction between phrases like "it's pretty clear based on multiple sources" and "I know," particularly given the relative ambiguity of PAL sales.

Just combine Europe (UK, Ireland, Germany, Spain, and more), NPD, and Media Center. Those combined put Wii-U ahead. The remaining countries favor the Wii-U. What's so complicated about that?

 

[SwiftDeath]

Just combine Europe (UK, Ireland, Germany, Spain, and more), NPD, and Media Center. Those combined put Wii-U ahead. The remaining countries favor the Wii-U. What's so complicated about that?

You get numbers for UK, Ireland, Germany, and Spain? 0_0

 

[donny2112]

Second you mean? Or first original Zelda on Wii U.

Oh, right. Forgot all about Wind Waker. Sure, original Zelda. That's it...

i think it's somewhat worrying that the top-selling console in a new generation is selling like a second-place console from the last two generations. the ps4 is doing fine by itself, but it feels like we're missing something here.

Yeah, from historical perspective, the month-to-month numbers aren't great. LTD is super, though. Guess it'll be worth revisiting in a year to see if the month-to-month numbers undercut the fast start and continue lower than past gens.

 

[Opiate]

Just combine Europe (UK, Ireland, Germany, Spain, and more), NPD, and Media Center. Those combined put Wii-U ahead. The remaining countries favor the Wii-U. What's so complicated about that?

First and most importantly: you get numbers for UK/Germany/Spain? Regardless, the Wii U outselling the Xbone is very likely, I agree.

But you don't know for sure. When someone says "I know it's true" around here, we expect them to have direct sources -- because there are in fact people on GAF who have exactly that, and protecting them is a pretty big deal.

Just say "it's reasonably clear based on multiple sources," and the problem is resolved.

 

[K-A-Deman]

Have they actually posted the PS4 numbers? Because it's a little off to have facts and numbers for the others and PS4 just has a link to Geoff Keighly's twitter stating it's the best.

 

[BuggeryBugz]

Those are the last official statements we've gotten about either's WW sales

So here I go with my terrible guesstimation work

------------
For PS4
------------

Last WW Update was 7M WW on April 16th and sold through April 6th

From Dec. 28th, Sony had sold 4.2M PS4's WW, so between Dec. 28th, 2013 and April 6th, 2014, approximately 2.8M PS4's were sold WW

PS4 US YTD through March was 910k

Thus US PS4 sales make up approximately 910/2800 of the world's PS4 sales in that period or roughly 32.5% of WW PS4 sales

For sake of argument that seems a bit low so I'll up it to 35% as the base US/World PS4 sales ratio

Thus with sales of PS4 in the US for May and June of 197k and 269k respectively, I would predict around 1332k units sold WW [197+269 = 466, 466/.35] in that time period

And thus PS4 WW LTD would be around 8.33M as of the end of June

------------
For XB1
------------

Using the same approach

MS had WW XB1 sales at 3M as of Dec. 31st, 2013

XB1 US 2013 YTD = 909k + 908k = 1817K

Thus XB1 US/WW sales ratio was for that time period 1817/3000 = 60.5%

Therefore with XB1 US 2014 YTD = 1099k then this would suggest XB1 WW 2014 YTD = 1816.5k

So XB1 WW LTD would be around 4.816M as of the end of June

------------

Again this method is wholly inaccurate I'm sure, the XB1 moreso

Thanks for that. Very well thought out and I'm sure close enough to the mark.

It's a fairly big gap in sales and I do wonder if the gap will only get larger, stay the same or the X1 will claw back some ground. Interesting times ahead.

 

[GoofsterStud]

You get numbers for UK, Ireland, Germany, and Spain? 0_0

Germany and Spain yes. Ireland sometimes.

UK.... You can get a good guess. Sometimes they give it. I just did quick napkin math with what we have. Which suggest Wii-U has more world wide sales the past two months. I'm sure someone can go over it with a fine tooth comb if they want.

I know it's not fair but we did get one weeks numbers in the UK and I just multiplied it by 5 with a little bonus if titanfall sold more the following weeks. (Since it's heavily bundled) It's not completely accurate, but it should give a good estimate.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Have they actually posted the PS4 numbers? Because it's a little off to have facts and numbers for the others and PS4 just has a link to Geoff Keighly's twitter stating it's the best.

Seems numbers were leak from a web site go back few pages and you will find them

 

[Fnord]

No HW numbers from Sony, MS or Nintendo.

and

Ian Sherr @iansherr
More confusing, the data released yesterday by Xbox isn't #NPD, it was internal sales surveys. So we can't even compare "more than doubled"

This made something occur to me (forgive me if someone else has brought this up later in the thread, I haven't caught up yet). The "more than doubled" was not only from internal stats at MS, but it was specifically sell-through to customers. We don't have the sell-through numbers from May, do we? So there's no way to calculate the number from that stat, anyway.

 

[GoofsterStud]

This made something occur to me (forgive me if someone else has brought this up later in the thread, I haven't caught up yet). The "more than doubled" was not only from internal stats at MS, but it was specifically sell-through to customers. We don't have the sell-through numbers from May, do we? So there's no way to calculate the number from that stat, anyway.

The internal stats are from internal surveys, so they aren't always accurate. Saying over double is much safer and still looks impressive.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Have they actually posted the PS4 numbers? Because it's a little off to have facts and numbers for the others and PS4 just has a link to Geoff Keighly's twitter stating it's the best.

Post 2023

Thanks for that. Very well thought out and I'm sure close enough to the mark.

It's a fairly big gap in sales and I do wonder if the gap will only get larger, stay the same or the X1 will claw back some ground. Interesting times ahead.

You're welcome

WW the gap will almost assuredly grow as the XB1 seems to be failing to find a place to stand in mainland Europe. Really it's only markets so far seem to be the US, the UK, and maybe like Canada?

Germany and Spain yes. Ireland sometimes.

UK.... You can get a good guess. Sometimes they give it. I just did quick napkin math with what we have. Which suggest Wii-U has more world wide sales the past two months. I'm sure someone can go over it with a fine tooth comb if they want.

I know it's not fair but we did get one weeks numbers in the UK and I just multiplied it by 5 with a little bonus if titanfall sold more the following weeks. (Since it's heavily bundled) It's not completely accurate, but it should give a good estimate.

Eh I keep fairly on top of PAL HW numbers as they are so very very very rarely given out and while I think one can reasonably draw some conclusions I would never word it quite like you did.

 

[Boombloxer]

Yeah, I think many people are hoping that the encroachment on the console industry from the mobile revolution will stay neatly quarantined within the handheld market, but that seems unlikely to me. As you say, things like Fire TV or Apple TVs or even just Android tablets with wireless connectivity to televisions are natural extensions of the products already in existence, and there is every reason to expect them to grow.

Not exactly. There's no reason to expect that someone wants to play the same games on their phone as they are on their TV. The consumption habits don't actually reflect that.

 

[GoofsterStud]

I think one can reasonably draw some conclusions I would never word it quite like you did.

English isn't my native language, it's a strong second. So my phrasing and grammar doesn't always come of the way I interpret it....

 

[Opiate]

Not exactly. There's no reason to expect that someone wants to play the same games on their phone as they are on their TV. The consumption habits don't actually reflect that.

Right -- not yet, because only a few avenues for said consumption yet exist. That part I'm not arguing with. There's certainly reason to expect that people will want to play games on their TVs from their tablets and Amazon Fires and whatever else comes along down the line, though. I'm saying people who can't see how iPads and iTVs and Android devices can start encroaching on the living room are being profoundly unimaginative.

 

[SwiftDeath]

English isn't my native language, it's a strong second. So my phrasing and grammar doesn't always come of the way I interpret it....

Ah ok then. Didn't mean to sound aggressive or anything. Just in the future it might be good to qualify a statement like that a "in my opinion" etc.

 

[K-A-Deman]

Post 2023

Thanks, so around 270 thousand huh, guess their E3 convinced enough people to have faith in the system.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Honestly I'm not really convinced E3 has that much effect on June sales, pre-orders for fall? Sure but June sales of HW? Eh seems unlikely

 

[GoofsterStud]

Ah ok then. Didn't mean to sound aggressive or anything. Just in the future it might be good to qualify a statement like that a "in my opinion" etc.

I don't understand. Pretty clear means there is some supporting evidence without being 100% and an opinion can mean you just have a gut. When there are hardware sales, and software sales trends that would support a claim it seems stronger than just "my opinion".

Does that make sense?

 

[SwiftDeath]

I don't understand. Pretty clear means there is some supporting evidence without being 100% and an opinion can mean you just have a gut. When there are hardware sales, and software sales trends that would support a claim it seems stronger than just "my opinion".

Does that make sense?

Well with this

So have we reached a point where Wii-U's world wide sales are more than the Xbox One month to month? I know it's true for May and June....

"I know" is generally held as a pretty strong statement is all.

All that you've said when taken subjectively is perfectly reasonable. You simply can't qualify it as something you know when it is something you suspect

 

[GoofsterStud]

Well with this



"I know" is generally held as a pretty strong statement is all.

All that you've said when taken subjectively is perfectly reasonable. You simply can't qualify it as something you know when it is something you suspect

Now I see the hang up. Thank you. Sorry to get off topic. I just worded it like a traditional statistics summary now. LOL

 

[donny2112]

Can restrict it to Japan+U.S., since those are well-known.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

Pretty good month for the big three, loving my Xbox One and the Wii U is now a very tempting purchase.

 

[Fnord]

I honestly believe the Xbox has potential here. If you imagine Xbox with an open App Store and Cortana for decent and natural speech recognition, it really could become more than just a game box.

I know most of the gaming forum just wants a game box, but I also think that may be not be enough to avoid such a contracting market, and having a broader appeal to the living room, can help sustain home console gaming by making consoles a destination for information, media consumption as well as gaming

As long as it's $400 and Apple TV/Roku (and like devices - not to mention Chromecast) are $99, I don't see the average consumer buying an XBox One as a living room center. And Android TV is due soon, adding yet another cheap competitor (granted, it's Google's third try at the living room, but they seem to have their stuff together more this time).

 

[SwiftDeath]

Now I see the hang up. Thank you. Sorry to get off topic. I just worded it like a traditional Statistics summary now. LOL

No worries

Can restrict it to Japan+U.S., since those are well-known.

So to put the numbers in play

US  |  May  June
-----------------------
XB1 |  77k  197k
WIU |  60K  140K

Japan |  May  June
-----------------------
WIU   | 42.6K 57.4K

J+US | May     June
-----------------------
XB1 |  77k     197k
WIU |  102.6K  197.4K

 

[Bgamer90]

Pretty good month for the big three, loving my Xbox One and the Wii U is now a very tempting purchase.

Definitely recommend the Wii U if you already have another current gen system. It compliments the Xbox One and/or PS4 very well.

 

[foxbeldin]

So if you put may and june together, X1 has pretty stable sales numbers, despite the price drop.

 

[Mpl90]

First June for major home console

PS2 - 343,000
Xbox - 265,000 (month after the price drop, from $299 to $199)
Gamecube - 213,000 (month of the price drop, from $199 to $149)

Xbox 360 - 277,000
PS3 - 99,000
Wii - 382,000

PS4 - 269,000
Xbox One - 197,000
Wii U - 42,000

How long PS2 shortages lasted? Was difficult to find even during June 2001? Was the same for 360 in June 2006?

 

[Hoo-doo]

It's said a thousand times, but again, a X1 pricedrop is not going to make it a super appealing platform all of a sudden.

What the 100$ drop did was basically move a lot of May sales (which were horrible) into June. The end result is not a net increase.
A pricedrop shifts purchase patterns, but it doesn't notably increase demand when the competitor is the hot product on the market.

Right now the console to get is the PS4, come the holidays we might be seeing more than a million lead in LTD sales. Consumers won't settle for the lesser, more undesirable device for a 50 bucks discount. It's just not how it works.
A substantial pricedrop is only going to hurt Microsoft's pocketbook, and I don't think the Xbox division is in a position to be incurring even bigger losses these days.

 

[Bgamer90]

How long PS2 shortages lasted? Was difficult to find even during June 2001? Was the same for 360 in June 2006?

I got the PS2 in February of 2001 so things definitely improved after the first 3-4 months or so.

Same was true for the Xbox 360 from what I remember. Got it January 2006. Wanted one since launch but couldn't find it at all until January. It's funny since I got a core because all of the premiums were sold out that particular day.

 

[Daviii]

I honestly believe the Xbox has potential here. If you imagine Xbox with an open App Store and Cortana for decent and natural speech recognition, it really could become more than just a game box.

I know most of the gaming forum just wants a game box, but I also think that may be not be enough to avoid such a contracting market, and having a broader appeal to the living room, can help sustain home console gaming by making consoles a destination for information, media consumption as well as gaming

Too bad MS lost the momentum with Kinect pricing in the first place, and lost the chance to do what you say above by killing Kinect later.

Now they can consider themselves lucky if they don't lag much behind in the US/UK, and can only beg Sony for some mercy outside those territories where a bloodbath is taking place.

 

[Bgamer90]

It's said a thousand times, but again, a X1 pricedrop is not going to make it a super appealing platform all of a sudden.

A $300 Xbox One will definitely be more desirable in comparison to the current $400 SKU. It would make the system the cheapest place for the new current gen titles. Definitely think it would do better.

Right now the console to get is the PS4, come the holidays we might be seeing more than a million lead in LTD sales. Consumers won't settle for the lesser, more undesirable device for a 50 bucks discount. It's just not how it works.

Depends on what those consumers are interested in. It's pretty much set that the sales gap won't be closing anytime soon but I don't really see why that needs to be said again. Both systems should do well during the Holidays.

 

[Kysen]

X1 sold as much as PS4 did in May despite an extra week and front loaded preorders?

 

[Relativ9]

It's said a thousand times, but again, a X1 pricedrop is not going to make it a super appealing platform all of a sudden.

What the 100$ drop did was basically move a lot of May sales (which were horrible) into June. The end result is not a net increase.
A pricedrop shifts purchase patterns, but it doesn't notably increase demand when the competitor is the hot product on the market.

You might have a point there, I wonder if we'll see a dip in Xbox One sales next month again. Perhaps going down to something like 120-140k. Stands to reason that if your theory is correct the amount of people who held off in May to buy it after the price drop should be roughly the same amount as a potential new dropp off in sales for July.

 

[Mysterious]

Too soon for this?

 

[Jal]

So if you put may and june together, X1 has pretty stable sales numbers, despite the price drop.

Weekly:

29.25k April
30.4k May - June

Yet PS4 sold +70k over the previous two months

WTF?

 

[Bgamer90]

X1 sold as much as PS4 did in May despite an extra week and front loaded preorders?

Pretty much. A cheaper SKU during a month without really any major games wasn't going to completely stop the momentum the PS4 has had during all these months when the Xbox One was $500.

 

[GoofsterStud]

Too soon for this?

How the hell is Smash Bros not on there? Who made that?

 

[Principate]

Too soon for this?

If it actually outselling the XB1 WW like it's very likely then it's far too soon.

 

[Daviii]

Depends on what those consumers are interested in. It's pretty much set that the sales gap won't be closing anytime soon but I don't really see why that needs to be said again. Both systems should do well during the Holidays.

The consumers usually are interested in what their gamer friends were interested in the first place. Specially as the vast majority of the games are multiplat with negligible differences.

So if your friends have the PS4, the vast majority of consumers will chose that, no matter which Halo is launched (And obviously the same applies the other way around)

Only when the consoles are mature and a stack of exclusives is waiting for you in the store, going multiplat makes sense from a customer perspective this time.

 

[co1onel]

Too soon for this?

One thing that bothers me about this, the Mario Kart text is on top of the squiggly line.

 

[Jimmyfenix]

Why was ubisoft on the board?

 

[Bgamer90]

Why was ubisoft on the board?

The only big third party company supporting the Wii U I guess.

 

[Hoo-doo]

A $300 Xbox One will definitely be more desirable in comparison to the current $400 SKU. It would make the system the cheapest place for the new current gen titles. Definitely think it would do better.



Depends on what those consumers are interested in. It's pretty much set that the sales gap won't be closing anytime soon but I don't really see why that needs to be said again. Both systems should do well during the Holidays.

Sure it would become more desirable. But is it worth taking a bath on every unit sold when you're still going to get slapped by the PS4 every month?

Over and over people keep acting like the Xbox One is this wildly popular item, merely held back by it's current pricepoint. It's really not.
Unless the X1 drops to silly prices like 199$, where savings might start to trump actual demand, the competitor will still remain the hot product.

 

[El-Pistolero]

Pretty much. A cheaper SKU during a month without really any major games wasn't going to completely stop the momentum the PS4 has had during all these months when the Xbox One was $500.

It does not look like a price only issue to me. The market gravitates more towards the PS4 because it is The console to own....
I really doubt that a 50$ price reduction could sway things in favour of MS. Double that and it might get interesting, but at that point, Sony will not hesitate to adjust their offering.

 

[Aostia]

how is ps4 going compared to the wii and ps2? clearly among home console is the strongest, but I can't clearly understand if it is relatively to the somehow struggling competition or in general sense

 

[Striek]

Everything needs a price drop, part deux.

PS4 is mediocre and everything else is bad to awful, but the bar is so low right now that they've subverted expectations regardless.

 

[Chobel]

So there's a big possibility that is outselling WW these past two months? I didn't expect that at all.

 

[V_Arnold]

Too soon for this?

Not as much soon but rather a "Oh boy, I really wanna post this image, even though it is now factually incorrect, seeing how Mario Kart 8 seems to have revitalized the system's sales worldwide, but fuck reality anyway"-type of action.

 

[Jimmyfenix]

Everything needs a price drop, part deux.

PS4 is mediocre and everything else is bad to awful, but the bar is so low right now that they've subverted expectations regardless.

What?