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[Elandyll]

Exclusives are not the reason as Gears 4 did poorly and we have no info on how Horizon 3 performed after launch.

You could say having a big third party game like BF1 bundled in helped, but with the info we had back in October, those bundles only did 42K out of a total 329K. I think this is simple. Xbox One S is seen as the more appealing product right now. Whether or not the PS4 family can outsell the S after the Pro launched is something that needs to be seen. Also the post holiday crash for both XB1S and PS4.

Honestly I think you guys are in for a big surprise, and not just with December's results but also the new normal in 2017 and this supposed narrative of the XB1S now being the more appealing product (because 4K UHDBR drive I imagine?).

Imo the XB1S benefited from a combo of early adoption of new format (which I think has already dried up), attractive bundled up software (in the pre-Holiday and Holiday time frame) and killer deals, particularly in Sept/ Oct (the uncertainty around the PS ecosystem introduced by the Pro probably being a plus too).

Just looking at an anecdote: Amazon (just another vendor at this point, let's not generalize from there. The interest is that we have a 5-10% marketshare vendor with actual sales rankings which are updated fairly frequently.)
If the product (XB1S) in itself, regardless of deals, is more appealing, why would the PS4 (UHDBR drive-less) with a 7 + months old title bundled still dominate then?
Are Amazon buyers a special "breed" that don't know "what's up"?

 

[Abdiel]

I posted something in the other thread, it's almost impossible for me to cross quote from my phone, unless someone else wants to quote me from the other day. I'll post any updates soon.

 

[blakep267]

I'm questioning the idea that the S is more desired, as opposed to the software.

Isn't it possible that the Xbox One lineup of exclusives is why the Xbox One is doing so well in the last few months, instead of an innate desire of people to have the Xbox brand? GoW 4 is certainly higher profile than any exclusive the PS4 had during the last few months.

Maybe I'm missing something that definitively proves the software was not the reason.

it was outselling the PS4 before the bigger bundles came out. I think it's simple. MS did a great job of making the S look cool. It's smaller, white etc. Sony really didn't do that great of a job with the slim. It was more or less , here it is. Go buy it.

Honestly I think you guys are in for a big surprise, and not just with December's results but also the new normal in 2017 and this supposed narrative of the XB1S now being the more appealing product (because 4K UHDBR drive I imagine?).

Imo the XB1S benefited from a combo of early adoption of new format (which I think has already dried up), attractive bundled up software (in the pre-Holiday and Holiday time frame) and killer deals, particularly in Sept/ Oct (the uncertainty around the PS ecosystem introduced by the Pro probably being a plus too).

Just looking at an anecdote: Amazon (just another vendor at this point, let's not generalize from there. The interest is that we have a 5-10% marketshare vendor with actual sales rankings which are updated fairly frequently.)
If the product (XB1S) in itself, regardless of deals, is more appealing, why would the PS4 (UHDBR drive-less) with a 7 + months old title bundled still dominate then?
Are Amazon buyers a special "breed" that don't know "what's up"?

You could probably say that Amazon skews more towards PlayStation buyers. Just like Target skews more towards Xbox buyers( I think it was target. I may be wrong). Like we see more niche games do better on amazon. I wanna say the last time Amazon had the Xbox one ahead was when the S first was having preorders

 

[Welfare]

Honestly I think you guys are in for a big surprise, and not just with December's results but also the new normal in 2017 and this supposed narrative of the XB1S now being the more appealing product (because 4K UHDBR drive I imagine?).

Imo the XB1S benefited from a combo of early adoption of new format (which I think has already dried up), attractive bundled up software (in the pre-Holiday and Holiday time frame) and killer deals, particularly in Sept/ Oct (the uncertainty around the PS ecosystem introduced by the Pro probably being a plus too).

Just looking at an anecdote: Amazon (just another vendor at this point, let's not generalize from there. The interest is that we have a 5-10% marketshare vendor with actual sales rankings which are updated fairly frequently.)
If the product (XB1S) in itself, regardless of deals, is more appealing, why would the PS4 (UHDBR drive-less) with a 7 + months old title bundled still dominate then?
Are Amazon buyers a special "breed" that don't know "what's up"?

It's not a supposed narrative when sales show otherwise. The US market showed that XB1 was able to sell almost as much as the combined sales of the PS4 and Pro launch. In November, just like the past few months showed, the XB1 had more demand than non Pro PS4's. Pro launch helped sell more, but December won't have two months worth of preorders to help it out.

You talk about the new format, bundles, and deals, so why would December show any difference to the trend that XB1 sells more than PS4? If anything, that is an argument for December not being different to the past few months. The real test for XB1 is January.

I still don't think Amazon is worth looking at to determine a definitive winner anymore. PS4 sales are either going to go to the UC4 bundle or Pro. XB1 is split across multiple bundles. UC4 bundle dominated Amazon in November with Pro only placing one spot below the highest selling XB1S bundle (21, 22), that's not even counting two months of preorders for the Pro, yet in NPD the PS4 only won by 100K.

If we want to use Amazon, let's look at the November and December placings.

November

 PS4 Slim Uncharted 4 bundle: #3
XBO S 500GB Battlefield 1 bundle: #21
PS4 Pro: #22
XBO S 1TB Battlefield 1 bundle: #32
XBO S 500GB Minecraft bundle: #34
XBO S 500GB BF1 bundle + 3-month XBL card: #63

December

 PS4 Slim Uncharted 4 bundle: #3
XBO S 500GB Battlefield 1 bundle: #19
XBO S 500GB Minecraft bundle: #28
XBO S 1TB Gears 4 bundle: #76
XBO S 1TB Battlefield 1 bundle: #84 
PS4 Pro: #92

Going by Amazon in December realitive to November placements, UC4 didn't change, Pro collapsed, and the top two XB1S bundles performed better.

I have said this multiple times before, but I think the XB1S sells much more at retail than online. How else can you explain Amazon showing the PS4 dominating every month yet the XB1 has been winning every month in NPD, except for November which had the launch of the Pro?

My stance has been the real test for what will sell more is January. Maybe February if sales are still close for whatever reason.

 

[Primethius]

This the one Abdiel?

3DS? What 3DS. You have to have stock for it to sell. >_>

Seriously. Nintendo has been like, the worst about stock. I have zero positive commentary on anything other than them providing us with game stock. We've had plenty of copies of Pokemon, for example.

Sigh.

As to the XB1 and PS4, they've both done pretty well leading up to Christmas, though I think we saw some slightly higher stock movement on the PS4 overall? I'm still checking everything, but that's my preliminary, and it didn't look like any kind of shutout in any way. The new XB1 deal we have is pretty solid too. Even if the price went 'up', we're offering a $50 GC and a controller. I think that's better than just the previous deal, sheesh. You could turn around and sell the controller and be better off, if you don't need it. We'll see how it does this weekend.

Pros have been reduced, as expected. I will say, the day after Christmas, we had several standard PS4s swapped for Pros, haha. I was kind of amused by that. I guess there was some negotiations in families? Gift cards were leveraged in at least two of those exchanges.

I'll be very interested to see how this goes as we approach Tax season too. That's when see TVs and other big ticket items get more attention, after all. But, yeah.

---

Edit: Here's why I'm not buying the XB1S as being the more attractive option as a long term idea.

Percentage increases over last year during the month Slim launched and the following months: 36%, 19%, 08%

So, each subsequent month, the baseline increase over the XB1 from the prior year went down. If XB1S keeps dropping, it might equalize to the same place as the XB1 was or just slightly above it by January and February. That the PS4 has dropped and XB1S subsequently beats it is different data point that seems to be folded into a conclusion that I don't think is yet warranted. The XB1S is not beating the PS4 by such sales as to make up for the decline in the overall HW market, so it's not as simple as to point to its increase, the PS4's decrease and say one is more desirable, especially for a longer period. If the results stay in Jan/Feb, then the desirability has been pretty clearly established.

 

[astrogamer]

[3DS] 450k
[PS4] 1000m
[WIU] 70k
[XB1] 950k

 

[slavesnyder]

Yup. By and large the general public does not invest $200-300 because of an unknown quantity.

"Leg-shaved cavewoman fighting robot dinosaurs" is no unknown quantity. It's the best punchline of this gen so far.
If this game gets no pro bundle sony would be stupid.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

it was outselling the PS4 before the bigger bundles came out.

That can just be because of launch momentum though.

As it has been said, these first few months will speak to what it really was. It will be a matter of how X1 performs relative to past X1 performances in Jan and Feb. Especially if X1 can outperform PS4 in Feb with Horizon.

 

[hanspampel]

this holiday season won't tell us much

Q1CY2017 will tell us everything in retrospective
what console is leading over the other
what console will be down or up YoY
how big will the gap and YoY increase and/or decrease be


January
Ps4: 227k
Xb1: 130k
Gap: 97k
%: 74,5%

February
Ps4: 405k
Xb1: 248k
Gap: 157k
%: 63%

March
Ps4: 330k
Xb1: 241.5k
Gap: 88,5k
%: 36,5%

Q1CY2016
Ps4: 962k
Xb1: 619,5
Gap: 342.5k
% 55%


Q1CY2016 was the third biggest gap between Ps4 and Xb1 just 4% shy of Q3CY2014

 

[N.Domixis]

If Xbox s is more derivable than why did ps4 sell more online in cyber Monday? I'm pretty sure that was after the pro launched.
I

 

[RexNovis]

New holiday and cumulutive sell through figures from Sony for PS4

PS4 Software Sell through 50.4 Million over the Same Period, UNCHARTED 4: A Thief's End, reached a cumulative sell through of more than 8.7 Million copies globally ~

SAN MATEO, Calif., Jan. 4, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Sony Interactive Entertainment (SIE) today announced robust sales for PlayStation®4 (PS4&#8482 computer entertainment system and its software titles this holiday. That includes:

- PS4 has sold through more than 6.2 million units during the 2016 holiday season*1.

- PS4 has now cumulatively sold through more than 53.4*2 million units globally as of January 1, 2017.

- PS4 software sales also remained strong during the 2016 holiday season with more than 50.4 million copies*3 sold in retail stores worldwide and through digital downloads on PlayStation®Store as of January 1, 2017. UNCHARTED 4: A Thief's End reached a cumulative sell through of more than 8.7 million copies globally*4 as of December 21, 2016.


"We are truly grateful for the tremendous support from our fans and partners, which has helped to make this holiday season one of the best in our history," said Andrew House, President and Global CEO of Sony Interactive Entertainment. "We will aim to continue the momentum this year by broadening the PS4 title portfolio, further enriching the revolutionary gaming experiences on PlayStation VR*5 and high quality gaming experience on PlayStation 4 Pro*6, while also expanding network services. We will remain steadfast in making the PS4 the best place to play."

The PS4 system is currently available in 123 countries and regions*7 worldwide.

*1 Number of retail sales to consumers is estimated by SIE. PS4 sales data in Japan and Asia collected 11/21/2016 – 1/1/2017, in North America and Latin America collected 11/20/2016 – 12/31/2016, in Europe collected 11/21/2016 – 12/31/2016.
*2 Number of retail sales to consumers is estimated by SIE. Sales data in Japan collected 2/22/2014 – 1/1/2017, in North America collected 11/15/2013 – 12/31/2016, in Europe and Latin America collected 11/29/2013 – 12/31/2016, and in Asia collected 12/17/2013 – 1/1/2017.
*3 Number of retail sales to consumers is estimated by SIE. Sales data in Japan and Asia collected 11/21/2016 – 1/1/2017, in North America and Latin America collected 11/20/2016 – 12/31/2016, in Europe collected 11/21/2016 – 12/31/2016.
*4 Includes worldwide sell through data for both Blu-ray Disc sell-through quantities and digital sales.
*5 PlayStation®VR
*6 PlayStation®4 Pro
*7 As of 12/7/2016

So 6.2 million sold through in holiday 2016 and 53.4 cumulative sell through. Going by these figures it seems rather unlikely they will meet their forecast for the fiscal year.

 

[Javin98]

Yeah, 53.5 million was lower than I was initially predicting. Just a tiny 0.2 million YTD boost over last year.

However, interestingly, it does show that the boost in most countries have more than offset the significant YoY drops of the PS4 in the US.

 

[Kill3r7]

If Xbox s is more derivable than why did ps4 sell more online in cyber Monday? I'm pretty sure that was after the pro launched.
I

Because that is how derivatives work. You put product on sale and derive the rewards.

 

[RexNovis]

Yeah, 53.5 million was lower than I was initially predicting. Just a tiny 0.2 million YTD boost over last year.

Just for the sake of clarity its 53.4 million. Made a typo in my summary at the bottom but yea its certain to be less than they were expecting given their target for the FY. I guess the Slim and the Pro didnt have quite the sales appeal they had hoped.

 

[samar11]

New holiday and cumulutive sell through figures from Sony for PS4



So 6.2 million sold through in holiday 2016 and 53.4 cumulative sell through. Going by these figures it seems rather unlikely they will meet their forecast for the fiscal year.

Isn't that forecast for shipment and not sold through?

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Yeah, 53.5 million was lower than I was initially predicting. Just a tiny 0.2 million YTD boost over last year.

However, interestingly, it does show that the boost in most countries have more than offset the significant YoY drops of the PS4 in the US.

That was obvious but people kept being hard headed.

Outside of US is crucial for Sony. I don't know why it keeps being overlooked/downplayed.

 

[Primethius]

Yea, I'm somewhat puzzled by the US market this year. Both in HW numbers (which are down) and SW numbers.

Hopefully they pick back up next year.

 

[Javin98]

Just for the sake of clarity its 53.4 million. Made a typo in my summary at the bottom but yea its certain to be less than they were expecting given their target for the FY. I guess the Slim and the Pro didnt have quite the sales appeal they had hoped.

Yeah, I know, 100K isn't a big deal for the PS4, though. Probably sold that many units already since New Year's day.

That was obvious but people kept being hard headed.

Outside of US is crucial for Sony. I don't know why it keeps being overlooked/downplayed.

A few months ago, I did make a detailed post stating how the US:WW ratio was dropping below 33% throughout 2016. To fully confirm it, all we need now is the LTD figures of the PS4 in the US.

 

[RexNovis]

Isn't that forecast for shipment and not sold through?

They tend to have a relatively low amount of product in channel as they practice the "just in time" stocking method so it seems unlikely they will sell through enough product in the last quarter of this fiscal year (~4.5 million) to make it up to 60m shipped imo. I'm guessing they were expecting more of a sales boost from the new SKUs than they ended up actually getting.

 

[Vena]

That was obvious but people kept being hard headed.

Outside of US is crucial for Sony. I don't know why it keeps being overlooked/downplayed.

Its crucial, but we also should be aware of what is causing ~30-40% of your market globally to cool (while your competition seems to keep trucking along, even though it is behind, so this could just be an equilibrium end and we're reaching the end of the pool).

I'd also say that WW is going to be slower to "throttle" than the US since personal income is very different in the rest of the world, where the price sensitivity is paramount to even being able to afford a machine. This leads to a "front loading" in the US and other stronger economies relative to the rest of the world, and then the rest of the world ramps up as price drops. Nominally, though, I don't think you'd expect a major market like the US to start cooling and slowing down in hardware and software that we've been seeing...

Or its just waiting for the next big software to rally behind. /shrug

 

[allan-bh]

So 6.2 million sold through in holiday 2016 and 53.4 cumulative sell through. Going by these figures it seems rather unlikely they will meet their forecast for the fiscal year.

I guess people must realize that PS4 Pro is not delivering at the level that Sony expected.

 

[RexNovis]

[3DS] 525K
[XB1] 1134K
[PS4] 1042K
[WIU] 90K

I guess people must realize that PS4 Pro is not delivering at the level that Sony expected.

I honestly think its more due to the muted reception the Slim has received and the result of having no compelling bundles in one of their largest markets than their estimations for the pro sales. It seemed like their estimations for Pro were fairly realistic in the lead up to release.

 

[theprodigy]

[XB1] 1111k
[PS4] 1100k
[3DS] 625k
[WIU] 100k

 

[sense]

I still think a good portion of the xb1 slim sales is existing Xb1 owners replacing the ugly box with the sexy one. Original PS4 was good enough that people didn't feel the need to get the slim PS4 and pro is going to pick up starting next year with better deals and desirable games being bundled like horizon and probably mass effect.

 

[Chobel]

I guess people must realize that PS4 Pro is not delivering at the level that Sony expected.

Yep, and they probably didn't anticipate the significant decline of PS4 sales in the US.

 

[gtj1092]

Am I crazy or does everyones analysis ignore the fact that X1 was down in November as well. So did the X1S also fail?

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I still think Sony went for profit this year in USA .
One bundle unlike the rest of the world .
SIEA really did not do much and that hurt them .

 

[The Mad Draklor]

Yeah, 53.5 million was lower than I was initially predicting. Just a tiny 0.2 million YTD boost over last year.

However, interestingly, it does show that the boost in most countries have more than offset the significant YoY drops of the PS4 in the US.

Though the weirdest part is that last year's holiday period, the PS4 sold 5.7 million whereas this holiday season, it sold 6.2 million.

I still think Sony went for profit this year in USA .
One bundle unlike the rest of the world .
SIEA really did not do much and that hurt them .

Also, Sony released the IW/MW bundle after Christmas whereas they launched the Black Ops 3 bundle mid-December. I think it's clear that Sony was milking the UC4 bundle as much as possible.

 

[RexNovis]

I still think a good portion of the xb1 slim sales is existing Xb1 owners replacing the ugly box with the sexy one. Original PS4 was good enough that people didn't feel the need to get the slim PS4 and pro is going to pick up starting next year with better deals and desirable games being bundled like horizon and probably mass effect.

I certainly dont think the total lack of appealing bundles available this holiday in the US helped much either. Going by cumulative sell through figures and what they mean for RoTW sales and keeping in mind the sort of deals and bundles offered elsewhere in the world I think its clear SIEA cost themselves a substantial amount of sales with their stinginess. The biggest problem now is with INfinite Warfare being such an underperformer I'm not sure the new CoD bundle will prove to be as appealing as most would have expected looking at last year's BOps Bundle so I think its clear they need more bundle options for consumers sooner than later.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Its crucial, but we also should be aware of what is causing ~30-40% of your market globally to cool (while your competition seems to keep trucking along, even though it is behind, so this could just be an equilibrium end and we're reaching the end of the pool).

I'd also say that WW is going to be slower to "throttle" than the US since personal income is very different in the rest of the world, where the price sensitivity is paramount to even being able to afford a machine. This leads to a "front loading" in the US and other stronger economies relative to the rest of the world, and then the rest of the world ramps up as price drops. Nominally, though, I don't think you'd expect a major market like the US to start cooling and slowing down in hardware and software that we've been seeing...

Or its just waiting for the next big software to rally behind. /shrug

Honestly, I think things will ramp back up with the software this year. Last year's big software releases just didn't do hot.

I mean, Rockstar's release alone should provide a good upswing.

Now, if we're at this same point next year, after RDR2, BF2, Destiny, CoD, Mass Effect, Horizon, etc..., it may be hinting at something more grand occurring. For now, I think it is just the US market saying, "I ain't got time for them software releases!" and the rest of the world flexing their collective muscle.

Edit - Barring the releases getting hit with the delay baton, of course.

 

[ethomaz]

6.2m is 9% up YoY compared with last year.

Great holidays performance.

U4 sales are crazy.

 

[allan-bh]

Am I crazy or does everyones analysis ignore the fact that X1 was down in November as well. So did the X1S also fail?

XB1 S was not launched in november as PS4 Pro.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

XB1 S was not launched in november as PS4 Pro.

I still think that disregards just how well PS4 and X1 performed in November 2015.

 

[RexNovis]

Am I crazy or does everyones analysis ignore the fact that X1 was down in November as well. So did the X1S also fail?

I mean both were going to be down YoY so it being down isn't really a surprise but it also wasnt the month of release for a new SKU like it was for the PS4 so PS4 being down as much as it was despite the new SKU would inherently be more shocking to a lot of people.

 

[blakep267]

Am I crazy or does everyones analysis ignore the fact that X1 was down in November as well. So did the X1S also fail?

If the Scorpio launched in November and it was down then yea it'd have failed. You can chalk them up to being down due to the lack of compelling software releasing. But the pro should've helped more

 

[Welfare]

You could estimate US sales to ~32% of the 50M that was announced back in December, so assuming a similar ratio to 53.4M, December sales seem to max out around 1.2M. Probably anywhere between 1M to 1.2M.

Math to get this, some estimating.

US LTD to October 2016: 14,833,000
LTD November 2016: 15,933,000 (+1.1M)
Estimating ~200,000 week 1 December 2016: ~16,133,000

16,133,000 / 50,000,000 = 0.32266

The US ratio continuously falls in favor of ROTW so assuming just a flat 32% as of the end of 2016

53,400,000 * 0.32 = 17,088,000

17,088,000 - 15,933,000 = 1,155,000

Due to how just slight adjustments up or down from 32% can cause big changes in results, safe to assume PS4 is either slightly up this December or slightly down, not falling below 1M.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I certainly dont think the total lack of appealing bundles available this holiday in the US helped much either. Going by cumulative sell through figures and what they mean for RoTW sales and keeping in mind the sort of deals and bundles offered elsewhere in the world I think its clear SIEA cost themselves a substantial amount of sales with their stinginess. The biggest problem now is with INfinite Warfare being such an underperformer I'm not sure the new CoD bundle will prove to be as appealing as most would have expected looking at last year's BOps Bundle so I think its clear they need more bundle options for consumers sooner than later.

I don't think that is clear at all.

You acknowledged how relatively poor CoD was last year. So, for example, what difference would a CoD bundle have made in the grand scheme of things during the holidays?

 

[allan-bh]

I honestly think its more due to the muted reception the Slim has received and the result of having no compelling bundles in one of their largest markets than their estimations for the pro sales. It seemed like their estimations for Pro were fairly realistic in the lead up to release.

PS4 Slim is insipid, maybe Sony expected more due to price drop, but the model itself doesn't have major attractions against OG PS4.

 

[blakep267]

I don't think that is clear at all.

You acknowledged how relatively poor CoD was last year. So, for example, what difference would a CoD bundle have made in the grand scheme of things during the holidays?

Well for one even a lackluster COD is still more popular than uncharted. It'll still be #1 going forward likely.

 

[Primethius]

Don't think you can just look at the Slim. Sales across the board for HW were pretty fairly down this November. PS4 was hit harder than XB1 for sure, but they were both down.

I think the SW was probably a big factor. But maybe something else as well.

 

[hanspampel]

You could estimate US sales to ~32% of the 50M that was announced back in December, so assuming a similar ratio to 53.4M, December sales seem to max out around 1.2M. Probably anywhere between 1M to 1.2M.

Math to get this, some estimating.

US LTD to October 2016: 14,833,000
LTD November 2016: 15,933,000 (+1.1M)
Estimating ~200,000 week 1 December 2016: ~16,133,000

16,133,000 / 50,000,000 = 0.32266

The US ratio continuously falls in favor of ROTW so assuming just a flat 32% as of the end of 2016

53,400,000 * 0.32 = 17,088,000

17,088,000 - 15,933,000 = 1,155,000

Due to how just slight adjustments up or down from 32% can cause big changes in results, safe to assume PS4 is either slightly up this December or slightly down, not falling below 1M.

[3DS] 600k +/- 100k
[PS4] 1100k +/- 150k
[WIU] 100k +/- 50k
[XB1] 1200k +/- 150k

seems like i'm fine with 950k - 1250k
to bad everyone can still update and make predictions

 

[KillerMan91]

I guess people must realize that PS4 Pro is not delivering at the level that Sony expected.

I think it has pretty much everything to to with PS4 being so much down in US yoy and that has more to do with big third party SW than with HW. I mean for this holiday season WW sell trough is actually up by 500k units despite US probably being down by something like 700-800k. That means that in rest of the world PS4 was up yoy by over 1 million units and to me that tells that Slim and Pro were well received.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Well for one even a lackluster COD is still more popular than uncharted. It'll still be #1 going forward likely.

Right, but that doesn't mean it significantly raises console sales. Software was garbage last year in US and UK.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

I think it has pretty much everything to to with PS4 being so much down in US yoy and that has more to do with big third party SW than with HW. I mean for this holiday season WW sell trough is actually up by 500k units despite US probably being down by something like 700-800k. That means that in rest of the world PS4 was up yoy by over 1 million units and to me that tells that Slim and Pro were well received.

Not to mention, Sony went full ham on bundles in 2015. There wasn't just the UC Collection bundle. There were also the BO3 LE bundle, BO3 standard bundle, and 3 different Star Wars Battlefront bundles.

 

[RexNovis]

Don't think you can just look at the Slim. Sales across the board for HW were pretty fairly down this November. PS4 was hit harder than XB1 for sure, but they were both down.

I think the SW was probably a big factor. But maybe something else as well.

There's no question that the weaker performance for SW had a big part to play in sales this year as well. Outside of BF1 and COD there really wasn't much out there to push substantial numbers of HW adoption. As far as mass market appeal goes it seems like this holiday had a fairly weak lineup which is a shame because I think it actually offered quite a bit of diversity compared to previous years. I also certianly think the spacing or releases also played a role in the lower total sales of some of these titles. Why publishers insist on crowding such small windows of time with massive game releases will never make sense to me.

You could estimate US sales to ~32% of the 50M that was announced back in December, so assuming a similar ratio to 53.4M, December sales seem to max out around 1.2M. Probably anywhere between 1M to 1.2M.

Math to get this, some estimating.

US LTD to October 2016: 14,833,000
LTD November 2016: 15,933,000 (+1.1M)
Estimating ~200,000 week 1 December 2016: ~16,133,000

16,133,000 / 50,000,000 = 0.32266

The US ratio continuously falls in favor of ROTW so assuming just a flat 32% as of the end of 2016

53,400,000 * 0.32 = 17,088,000

17,088,000 - 15,933,000 = 1,155,000

Due to how just slight adjustments up or down from 32% can cause big changes in results, safe to assume PS4 is either slightly up this December or slightly down, not falling below 1M.

When you say up or down I assume you mean in comparison to November sales not YoY? If so than yea I think that's a safe bet. I personally think it will probably be down by a small margin due to what I am assuming will be a sharp drop off in Pro sales for the month. Seeing as how the Pro was discounted for much of the month including Cyber Monday though I could certainly see how it might surprise in that regard though.

seems like i'm fine with 950k - 1250k
to bad everyone can still update and make predictions

Arbitrarily giving yourself generous ranges is so ridiculous. Its not even like they serve as % deviation or anything they are literally just arbitrary numbers completely divorced from the totals predicted. Patting yourself on the back for something possibly falling within is incredibly obnoxious. Please stop.

 

[Primethius]

There's no question that the weaker performance for SW had a big part to play in sales this year as well. Outside of BF1 and COD there really wasn't much out there to push substantial numbers of HW adoption. As far as mass market appeal goes it seems like this holiday had a fairly weak lineup which is a shame because I think it actually offered quite a bit of diversity compared to previous years. I also certianly think the spacing or releases also played a role in the lower total sales of some of these titles. Why publishers insist on crowding such small windows of time with massive game releases will never make sense to me.

Just as an aside: I've been playing through a lot of games that did poorly, especially compared to predecessors (Dishonored, Deus Ex etc) and it's incredibly saddening to see quality titles like this suffer at a commerical level due to things out of the developers control.

At some level, when I see a game perform poorly but that also had a mixed reception, you can sort of see why and it's easy to justify that mental math in your head. But with some of the drops this year, the titles have not only been good but often better then the original. And to see the developers that often pump out a quality title and improve on the original then have games that sell less due to factors out of their control (release date, marketing etc)...

Man, it sucks.

 

[Welfare]

When you say up or down I assume you mean in comparison to November sales not YoY? If so than yea I think that's a safe bet. I personally think it will probably be down by a small margin due to what I am assuming will be a sharp drop off in Pro sales for the month. Seeing as how the Pro was discounted for much of the month including Cyber Monday though I could certainly see how it might surprise in that regard though.

Yeah, just comparing to November.

 

[slavesnyder]

Arbitrarily giving yourself generous ranges is so ridiculous. Its not even like they serve as % deviation or anything they are literally just arbitrary numbers completely divorced from the totals predicted. Patting yourself on the back for something possibly falling within is incredibly obnoxious. Please stop.

humble pampel

 

[RexNovis]

How likely is it that given the LTD totals for XB1 in US and UK that it has fallen behind 360 at this point which, unless my figures are incorrect, had 28.6m shipped by its 50th month?

Just as an aside: I've been playing through a lot of games that did poorly, especially compared to predecessors (Dishonored, Deus Ex etc) and it's incredibly saddening to see quality titles like this suffer at a commerical level due to things out of the developers control.

At some level, when I see a game perform poorly but that also had a mixed reception, you can sort of see why and it's easy to justify that mental math in your head. But with some of the drops this year, the titles have not only been good but often better then the original. And to see the developers that often pump out a quality title and improve on the original then have games that sell less due to factors out of their control (release date, marketing etc)...

Man, it sucks.

Agreed. Its been a sobering holiday in that regard.

humble pampel

hah! *golf clap*

 

[donny2112]

[XB1] 1050K
[PS4] 1000K
[3DS] 450K
[WIU] 100K