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[tattooed_dwarf]

Right, which means xbone shipments are at 17.3 million units. So if theres approximately 2 million PS4 sitting at retail (37.7-35.9), then it is probably similar for xbone putting their actual install base around 15 million. Either way you look at it, those 20 million numbers people were extrapolating are extremely far fetched if not borderline delusional.

Are you counting that Xbone shipment number from EA's 55million sold consoles estimate? Are you sure you should count it like that, like 100% sure?

 

[TBiddy]

EA estimate 55 million for LTD end of calendar 2015
Subtracted by Sony's 35.9 million number for LTD as of Jan 3 2016

Math

Indeed. Math.

 

[allan-bh]

~19 million for Xbox One is respectable. The system is not a failure that sometimes seems to be, it's just that PS4 is not far from a Wii level of success, so is huge.

 

[EventHorizon]

~19 million for Xbox One is respectable. The system is not a failure that sometimes seems to be, it's just that PS4 is not far from a Wii level of success, so is huge.

While that is a true statement for the situation so far, it can also be seen as a sign of trouble for the future of the XB1.

As the PS4 continues to sell more than the XB1, the gap between the absolute number of consoles sold will continue to go up. We are already starting to see the effects of that gap. It will become increasingly difficult for the XB1 to land exclusive game or marketing deals. At the same time the PS4 will see the exact opposite trend. In addition, people have an incentive to buy the console their friends already own. As time goes by, the growing console sales gap will create a stronger social networking pressure in favor of the PS4.

The problem for the XB1 is that these trends could cross a tipping point where the PS4 becomes the default console. That has already happened in many parts of the world but it has to potential to hit the XB1 strongholds of the US and UK. If that happens, XB1 sales would drop off considerably.

 

[boredandlazy]

Math

Gonna have to show us how you worked that one out son.

 

[Conduit]

Could Bone be at 17.9M, and EA estimated 18.3M or even 18.7M then called that 55M total? That seems entirely possible. Could MJ's leak have really been describing activations, and the actual sell through is closer to 19M? Perhaps, but I still find it unlikely an MS rep would say "around 18" when they could've easily said, "nearly 19," or even, "around 19,"

MS probably doesn't know how many Xbones are sold.

 

[allan-bh]

The problem for the XB1 is that these trends could cross a tipping point where the PS4 becomes the default console. That has already happened in many parts of the world but it has to potential to hit the XB1 strongholds of the US and UK. If that happens, XB1 sales would drop off considerably.

Can't see that happening in US and UK, unless big western third parties games start to become PS4/PC only, which seems quite unlikely.

 

[Bioshocker]

They're just presenting data in a way that doesn't cause investors to panic. Whether you believe this manipulation of data is disingenuous just because you're not getting the numbers you want doesn't make it so. At the end of the day they are making the best with what they got, you'd do the same for a paycheck and so would I.
Don't do unto others what you wouldn't want done unto you and all that.

Absolutely. Have to respect Nintendo for being completely open with their Wii U sales, though. No "Nintendo family" BS.

 

[Coxy100]

While that is a true statement for the situation so far, it can also be seen as a sign of trouble for the future of the XB1.

As the PS4 continues to sell more than the XB1, the gap between the absolute number of consoles sold will continue to go up. We are already starting to see the effects of that gap. It will become increasingly difficult for the XB1 to land exclusive game or marketing deals. At the same time the PS4 will see the exact opposite trend. In addition, people have an incentive to buy the console their friends already own. As time goes by, the growing console sales gap will create a stronger social networking pressure in favor of the PS4.

The problem for the XB1 is that these trends could cross a tipping point where the PS4 becomes the default console. That has already happened in many parts of the world but it has to potential to hit the XB1 strongholds of the US and UK. If that happens, XB1 sales would drop off considerably.

Indeed, but I'm sure microsoft will keep plugging away and as long as I keep getting games for my XB1 I'm happy. It's in everyone's interest to have 2 strong players in the console market..

 

[allan-bh]

They're just presenting data in a way that doesn't cause investors to panic. Whether you believe this manipulation of data is disingenuous just because you're not getting the numbers you want doesn't make it so. At the end of the day they are making the best with what they got, you'd do the same for a paycheck and so would I.
Don't do unto others what you wouldn't want done unto you and all that.

Honestly I don't think investors cares for Xbox One, they barely pay attention because is a very small business for Microsoft and overall the company is experiencing a great moment.

In fact Xbox One isn't doing particularly bad, but even if was investors would not panic unless began to really hurt Microsoft profits.

 

[AnthonypUK]

Honestly I don't think investors cares for Xbox One, they barely pay attention because is a very small business for Microsoft and overall the company is experiencing a great moment.

In fact Xbox One isn't doing particularly bad, but even if was investors would not panic unless began to really hurt Microsoft profits.

They do when the ROI they get on the money they sink into the xbox division isn't as good as investing that same money in other areas and getting a much better return.

Its not about doing good or bad, its about what am i getting for that money and could i get more using that same money another way.

 

[allan-bh]

They do when the ROI they get on the money they sink into the xbox division isn't as good as investing that same money in other areas and getting a much better return.

Its not about doing good or bad, its about what am i getting for that money and could i get more using that same money another way.

I'm just saying because all the news and talks I see about Microsoft in financial websites and TV channels like Bloomberg hardly mentions Xbox, is kinda an invisible product for shareholders.

Plus in the earnings call is hard to see anyone asking about, Microsoft has much more important business to investors worry about how Xbox is doing.

 

[Renekton]

I'm just saying because all the news and talks I see about Microsoft in financial websites and TV channels like Bloomberg hardly mentions Xbox, is kinda an invisible product for shareholders.

Plus in the earnings call is hard to see anyone asking about, Microsoft has much more important business to investors worry about how Xbox is doing.

Ya it's like old Google with its bajillions of random projects.

 

[TBiddy]

The problem for the XB1 is that these trends could cross a tipping point where the PS4 becomes the default console. That has already happened in many parts of the world but it has to potential to hit the XB1 strongholds of the US and UK. If that happens, XB1 sales would drop off considerably.

If that was the case, the Wii/WiiU would be the default console by now.

An install base of ~19 million isn't just something you ignore, unless you're a small indie team or you're paid by someone to ignore it.

 

[AnthonypUK]

I'm just saying because all the news and talks I see about Microsoft in financial websites and TV channels like Bloomberg hardly mentions Xbox, is kinda an invisible product for shareholders.

Plus in the earnings call is hard to see anyone asking about, Microsoft has much more important business to investors worry about how Xbox is doing.

Indeedy, and it will be fine as is, until phil comes cap in hand saying i need $Xbillion to R&D, Market and invest for the next Xbox, then they'll take note.

 

[EventHorizon]

Can't see that happening in US and UK, unless big western third parties games start to become PS4/PC only, which seems quite unlikely.

All we are talking about is enough pressure to make most people to decide to buy a PS4 instead of an XB1. If I told you that you could buy an apple from Store A for $1.00 or the same apple from Store B for $0.99, if all other things are equal you'd decide to go to Store B the vast majority of the time. It doesn't take much to sway someone's decision. Of course with consoles all things aren't equal, but we've already seen that the PS4 outsells the XB1 when prices and deals are competitive. That means that the PS4 is already considered the better deal.

The holiday 2014 shopping season was unique in that the XB1 undercut the PS4 in price and included games. That allowed it outsell the PS4 during that time and hit the reset switch as far as the sales gap was concerned. That didn't happen in the holiday 2015 season and instead of shrinking XB1/PS4 sales gap, it was expanded. This is new territory for the XB1 and PS4 relationship. It effects will only now start to be felt.

On top of that we have just witnessed the rather disastrous Rise of the Tomb Raider XB1 timed exclusivity deal. That is going to scare away any future deals like it. Exclusive marketing deals like the ones PS4 had with Destiny and Star Wars Battlefront have shown that you don't need an actual game exclusive to sell a lot of hardware. Putting that together, going forward the PS4 will likely get the best and more of such marketing exclusive deals, and as a result sell even more hardware.

Indeed, but I'm sure microsoft will keep plugging away and as long as I keep getting games for my XB1 I'm happy. It's in everyone's interest to have 2 strong players in the console market..

I'm only talking about future console sales not past one. I already said that up til now the XB1 has sold just fine in the US and UK. The point I'm making is that going forward we are going to start to see the effects of the sales gap in those areas which up til now hasn't been a significant factor. That gap is going to mean the potential buyers are going to be exposed to more PS4 marketing through game marketing exclusivity deals and will more likely to have people they know already own a PS4 rather than an XB1. No one buys a console based on what is good for the market. They buy a console based on what is good for themselves, and given those factors I just mentioned I think it will be very likely that they'll choose a PS4 going forward.

Btw, I expect that Microsoft already knows this which is why I've been predicting that they'll come out in 1-2 years with a next gen console or an appliance PC that can play Xbox games.

 

[CrispyBoar]

I expect that Microsoft already knows this which is why I've been predicting that they'll come out in 1-2 years with a next gen console or an appliance PC that can play Xbox games.

While it's good, I don't think that most 3rd party publishers will be too happy to see another console from any company so soon (besides maybe Nintendo), as both Xbox One & PS4 are only two & a quarter years into this gen, & that they're just now starting to bring a lot of newly made games for the platforms (not to mention that development costs may inevitably increase from a new console).

Consumers won't also see the need to purchase another platform after they just now got into this generation, either.

 

[gtj1092]

So you weren't trolling if you thought X1 sales were below 20 million in that Mary Jo thread.

Then again EA seems to change their estimates every month.

 

[benny_a]

Then again EA seems to change their estimates every month.

The EA CFO is also saying every conference call that consoles are doing better than they expected.

 

[Brad Grenz]

It's a mistake putting too much stock in an install base estimate definitely referring to specific sell through figures. Big corporations don't always quibble about the difference between shipped and sold to consumers when they're trying to make a simple point about partner sales going well.

 

[TBiddy]

So you weren't trolling if you thought X1 sales were below 20 million in that Mary Jo thread.

Then again EA seems to change their estimates every month.

Who were accused of trolling?

 

[slavesnyder]

Maybe Welfare's guess wasn't so good, but EA was just following SalesGaf and took Welfare's numbers.

 

[tattooed_dwarf]

Indeed. Math.

Yep, math.

 

[leeh]

So there was over 1m of Xbox's which weren't switched on in December and that number was true. Good numbers.

 

[oti]

Math

Burn the witch!

 

[tattooed_dwarf]

Burn the witch!

What witch?

 

[zelas]

So I guess this was pretty solid info after all.

 

[ethomaz]

So I guess this was pretty solid info after all.

That was a super rounded over rounded numbers to be fair.

18 million active Xbones could mean over 20m sold and that was not the case.

 

[Raist]

What

From the numbers we do know, there's no way the XB1 sold >19.1M and shipped ~21M.

 

[EventHorizon]

While it's good, I don't think that most 3rd party publishers will be too happy to see another console from any company so soon (besides maybe Nintendo), as both Xbox One & PS4 are only two & a quarter years into this gen, & that they're just now starting to bring a lot of newly made games for the platforms (not to mention that development costs may inevitably increase from a new console).

Consumers won't also see the need to purchase another platform after they just now got into this generation, either.

The switch to the next gen consoles will be different than a traditional generational jump. The next consoles will be fully cross compatible with current gen consoles. Developers will have to do very little, if anything, to target both platforms. They'll just have more headroom on the newer consoles so if you play a game there you'd have the equivalent of choosing better graphical settings for a game on a PC.

Likewise consumers won't have to jump to the new gen right away, just like PC gamers don't all have the best CPUs and GPUs. Both gen consoles will play the exact same games with the possible exception of VR games requiring the better hardware of the new gen. If you are happy with ~900p 30FPS gameplay then you'd have little reason to upgrade right away. If on the other hand you just had to have 1080p/4K 60 FPS or VR then you'd shell out the bucks for the upgrade.

 

[Liabe Brave]

Still weirded out that there's possibility for such large overestimation, I would have assumed a certain degree of precision when presenting such value.

Well, it's only adjunct factors like this that might be presented so vaguely. If it was data about EA's own business--units of a title sold, preorder conversion rates, etc.--you could safely expect higher precision.

The system is not a failure that sometimes seems to be....

In a modern business context, it's very much a failure. It has lost market share versus its competitors, and its revenue is lower than its predecessor device. You could argue that the expected business model of continuous improvement isn't realistic, but that's the norm.

 

[Welfare]

From the numbers we do know, there's no way the XB1 sold >19.1M and shipped ~21M.

You mean from the lack of numbers we don't have, so it's impossible to know how well the Xbox One is doing in countries that we have 0 data for, and how well most Tier 1 countries are doing past 2013.

EA are somehow seeing 55 million combined sales, but since it doesn't fit with data that we don't have, it must be from someone's ass.

 

[AnthonypUK]

The next consoles will be fully cross compatible with current gen consoles.

They will? please evidence.

After the success of so many remasters for so much easy money, i find it hard to believe big corporations are going to leave that loverly remaster money off the table.

 

[Primethius]

You mean from the lack of numbers we don't have, so it's impossible to know how well the Xbox One is doing in countries that we have 0 data for, and how well most Tier 1 countries are doing past 2013.

EA are somehow seeing 55 million combined sales, but since it doesn't fit with data that we don't have, it must be from someone's ass.

Wait, but if EA is saying that it was 55 million combined by the end of 2015, then we know the XB1 isn't > 19.1 million.

Is that not the case?

 

[Welfare]

Wait, but if EA is saying that it was 55 million combined by the end of 2015, then we know the XB1 isn't > 19.1 million.

Is that not the case?

We know the number refers to sold through units, and we also know that the PS4 sold through 35.9m by the end of 2015. From that, it's basic subtraction.

Of course, the number they gave out won't be as accurate as we would like, we don't know how much over 55m it really is.

 

[Primethius]

We know the number refers to sold through units, and we also know that the PS4 sold through 35.9m by the end of 2015. From that, it's basic subtraction.

Of course, the number they gave out won't be as accurate as we would like, we don't know how much over 55m it really is.

I thought it was established earlier on that "over" was never reported by EA and Zhuge just added that in. No actual indication to whether or not it's over. Just that both consoles combined was 55 million.

 

[Welfare]

I thought it was established earlier on that "over" was never reported by EA and Zhuge just added that in. No actual indication to whether or not it's over. Just that both consoles combined was 55 million.

Ah, should not look to the title then.

Here is the full quote that Zhuge posted on another site

I think our business seems to be operating pretty consistent as it has been over the last couple of years. The console purchases are up through the end of calendar year '15, our estimate is 55 million units out there which has exceeded virtually everyone's forecast for the year and now almost 50% higher than previous console cycle so, all of that is very-very positive

Then still, if the install base is an even 55m, it's 19.1m

 

[AmyS]

Indeedy, and it will be fine as is, until phil comes cap in hand saying i need $Xbillion to R&D, Market and invest for the next Xbox, then they'll take note.

2X19.

Believe.

 

[Bgamer90]

I'm only talking about future console sales not past one. I already said that up til now the XB1 has sold just fine in the US and UK. The point I'm making is that going forward we are going to start to see the effects of the sales gap in those areas which up til now hasn't been a significant factor. That gap is going to mean the potential buyers are going to be exposed to more PS4 marketing through game marketing exclusivity deals and will more likely to have people they know already own a PS4 rather than an XB1. No one buys a console based on what is good for the market. They buy a console based on what is good for themselves, and given those factors I just mentioned I think it will be very likely that they'll choose a PS4 going forward.

Btw, I expect that Microsoft already knows this which is why I've been predicting that they'll come out in 1-2 years with a next gen console or an appliance PC that can play Xbox games.

The split in the U.S. isn't large to the point in which one console is seen as "default" (e.g.: the 360 last gen, or the PS2 during its respective gen). It's the smallest gap for entering the third year of a gen since the PlayStation brand has existed at this point.

I don't have the source on me right now (I'm on my phone) but if I remember correctly, the PS1 was already ahead of the N64 by more the 2 Million in America during the same point (start of 3rd year of gen).

I was young (and again, don't have the stats on me) so this may not be an accurate comparison, but I would relate the Xbox One vs. PS4 in America to SNES vs. Genesis. Both consoles are doing well in the territory and one isn't above the other to the point in which there's an unanimous "console my friends play" (i.e.: Xbox 360, PS2).

PlayStation is definitely going to get more third party game marketing in the future though due to its lead; Xbox may too (though I'm only guessing from series that haven't made their debut yet this gen; assuming the deals were made before this current gen started).

I could see the next Xbox releasing Fall 2018 at the earliest; Can't see the Xbox One being replaced before that.

 

[BradleyLove]

They will? please evidence.

After the success of so many remasters for so much easy money, i find it hard to believe big corporations are going to leave that loverly remaster money off the table.

I keep seeing this but there's hardly any remasters in reality, and they certainly don't sell gang busters (GTAV excepted). Sony have done what, 5 or 6? Hardly a huge revenue stream.

 

[StereoVsn]

The split in the U.S. isn't large to the point in which one console is seen as "default" (e.g.: the 360 last gen, or the PS2 during its respective gen). It's the smallest gap for entering the third year of a gen since the PlayStation brand has existed at this point.

I don't have the source on me right now (I'm on my phone) but if I remember correctly, the PS1 was already ahead of the N64 by more the 2 Million in America during the same point (start of 3rd year of gen).

I was young (and again, don't have the stats on me) so this may not be an accurate comparison, but I would relate the Xbox One vs. PS4 in America to SNES vs. Genesis. Both consoles are doing well in the territory and one isn't above the other to the point in which there's an unanimous "console my friends play" (i.e.: Xbox 360, PS2).

PlayStation is definitely going to get more third party game marketing in the future though due to its lead; Xbox may too (though I'm only guessing from series that haven't made their debut yet this gen; assuming the deals were made before this current gen started).

I could see the next Xbox releasing Fall 2018 at the earliest; Can't see the Xbox One being replaced before that.

I think Playstation is going to get all the more niche Japanese games by default which are not going to go to Xbone. It may also get some of the online games where devs want cross-play as well as some of the indies aiming at more international market. That said, vast majority of games from bigger publishers and a lot of indies are going to get to Xbone, it's too large of an environment to ignore.

I also think that we may see Xbone 1.5 or Xbone 2.0 in 2018 Holiday Season as long as it delivers full backwards compatibility which should be fairly easy considering x86 architecture and Windows 10 based OS (with VMs to boot).

 

[Boombloxer]

Only 5 systems in 30 years of gaming sold 100 million or more. Only 3 of those were home consoles.

PlayStation 2
DS
Game Boy/Game Boy Color
The original PlayStation
And the Wii

And in this age of gaming being pretty much dominated by mobile, 100 Million for a single system would be a feat.

Not really. Each generation going back to 6 has one, and ps4 would be 3 out of 4 for Sony. Mobile has nothing to do with it.

have the source on me right now (I'm on my phone) but if I remember correctly, the PS1 was already ahead of the N64 by more the 2 Million in America during the same point (start of 3rd year of gen).

~700k extra systems makes you defacto, but 1.3M doesn't? Not sure about that. Seems pretty clear that the markets chosen.

 

[krang]

They do when the ROI they get on the money they sink into the xbox division isn't as good as investing that same money in other areas and getting a much better return.

Its not about doing good or bad, its about what am i getting for that money and could i get more using that same money another way.

Keeping the brand in the public eye is worth a lot more than just the direct revenue one particular product produces. I'm almost certain that's why Xbox continues to exist within Microsoft. Although it's incredibly hard to quantify.

 

[Melchiah]

I also think that we may see Xbone 1.5 or Xbone 2.0 in 2018 Holiday Season as long as it delivers full backwards compatibility which should be fairly easy considering x86 architecture and Windows 10 based OS (with VMs to boot).

Serious question, wouldn't they need a similar memory solution for full backwards compatibility?

 

[Raist]

You mean from the lack of numbers we don't have, so it's impossible to know how well the Xbox One is doing in countries that we have 0 data for, and how well most Tier 1 countries are doing past 2013.

EA are somehow seeing 55 million combined sales, but since it doesn't fit with data that we don't have, it must be from someone's ass.

No. First, the is the same guy who said in 2014 that the XB1 was "catching up" to the PS4. We all know how well that worked out.

Second, it's "their estimate" of 55M "out there". That could mean a lot of things. Could be a rough estimate of shipments. So I'm not sure how that magically turned into "an install base of over 55M units". And the ~21M shipped is also pulled out of nowhere.

Third, that would mean that the US:RotW ratio has now fallen significantly below 60%, despite that fact that the XB1 wasn't launched in any new country in 2015, and sales have at best kept the same pace than in the US in few countries, or slowed down comparatively (Spain, Japan, France to a lower extent).

Finally, there's the entire list of countries, with numbers we do have:

USA 11.1M
Canada
Mexico
Brazil
Argentina
Colombia
Chile
UK ~2.5M (likely, maybe even less)
Ireland
Norway
Sweden
Finland
Denmark
Belgium
Netherlands
France 715k
Spain 78k (June 2015)
Portugal <8k (April 2015)
Italy
Greece
Turkey
South Africa
Switzerland
Germany 600k
Poland
Austria
Russia
Czech Republic
Hungary
Slovakia
UAE
Saudi Arabia
India 1.5k (December 2014)
China 71k (Retailer estimate, April 2015)
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Korea
Singapore
Japan 64k
Australia 66k (launch)
New Zealand

That adds up to ~15.2M.

Considering:
- how small most of the remaining markets are (and some of them are ridiculously tiny, e.g Switzerland, Singapore, Taiwan, HK, SA, NZ, Austria, Greece, most of the south american countries, eastern european countries, etc etc etc)
- XB1 SW isn't really performing well according to charts for several countries
- most of these only had the XB1 available for ~1 year
- several are traditionally PS-land

I don't see how they sold an extra 4M there (that's like >100k per country), and shipped roughly 10M in 2015 when they didn't even sell 5M in the US.

 

[CrispyBoar]

Keeping the brand in the public eye is worth a lot more than just the direct revenue one particular product produces. I'm almost certain that's why Xbox continues to exist within Microsoft. Although it's incredibly hard to quantify.

The question is, how long are they going to keep shelling out billions of dollars for something that's not making them a big return in ROI? That's already been happening for now 15-16 years. I don't think it's going to happen forever.

 

[Afrikan]

Gonna have to show us how you worked that one out son.

 

[injurai]

Both 1st Parties are the same.

 

[Gamezone]

That's not bad numbers for Microsoft, considering how messed up the first impression was.

 

[BinaryBear07]

Everyone is focused on Sony that any good news for Microsoft gets scoffed at. The fact that they are ahead of the 360 is great news.