-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
EA: PS4+Xbox One install base at over 55m Worldwide.
- Thread starter BY2K
- Start date
That's quite some spinning, initial PS3 numbers were bad due to a variety of reasons but availability was not one of them.
I have to say Xbone is doing much better than I would have expected will all the doom and gloom around the system, but it would still take a miracle for this gen to overtake the previous one. Unless we're in for another prolonged gen it might even miss combined Gen 6 sales. Really, it depends on how much the consoles sell this year as the generation is in full swing.
MAUGIC
Ninja Scooter
Member
PS4 nearly doubling Xbox over. The race is almost assuredly over, will be interesting to see how final totals this gen shake out and how that compares to previous generations.
Wuthering_Heights
Banned
Microsoft picked the right time to stop caring about hardware numbers.
All about those Live subs, now!
All about those Live subs, now!
I wonder if MS will state that the Xbox One surpassed Original Xbox sales sometime this year. Inevitable for the sales to reach that point this year -- just wonder if (or how) they'll state it.
It would be a statement that would look go on paper to people who don't follow up on gaming sales.
It would be a statement that would look go on paper to people who don't follow up on gaming sales.
I'm just reading assumptions here. And I'm not sure what this would in any way prove a 19.1M+ sold a year later.
Familienoberhauptvogel
Banned
we, as in a citizen of one of the aforementioned, may be tiny but combined we still add up to
8.01 + 5.399 + 23.46 + 7.188 + 28.83 + 4.471 + 8.474 for a total of 85.832 millions, which is in fact almost 6 million more than germany.
That's leaving aside the lands you didn't specifically name and that some of the named are among the most wealthy countries in the world, per capita even.
If there is no price drop it will probably be around Black Friday when Xbox One reach that milestone.
Crazy to think that at that point in the Xbox OG life Microsoft was already preparing for Xbox 360's launch.
If PS4 get too far ahead like the PS2 did I wonder if MS will do the same thing they did with Xbox OG & jump ahead to reveal the next Xbox early next year.
Nintendo has already jumped to next gen plans, Sony would be the only ones happy to keep this generation going the way it is.
Making assumptions on the size of the VG market based on the population is not very helpful.
Take Greece vs UK: population ratio of ~8, PS4 sales ratio ~28.5.
The point is that saying "well there can be a lot of sales left, there's so many countries" is silly. That would also imply that the XB1 sold almost half as much as the PS4, despite being available in 3-4 times less countries.
Yeah, I agree.
Yeah. It would be similar to hearing rumors of the next Xbox later this year. Pretty crazy; Feels like this gen just started.
I doubt MS will do that. I think they'll spend at least 2-3 more years trying to build up new brands that will hopefully grow on the Xbox's successor.
Lol right. He must have found a way to extrapolate sales from the eastern markets. Now that we know PS4 is at 37.4m as of December 31, 2015. 18M would make this true but that 2:1 is definitely real.
Guy is quoted so much here. Its amazing
How do we know that?
Familienoberhauptvogel
Banned
I wasn't the one who started this. You said it couldn't have sold much, in part, because these countries are tiny, which can only mean population or territory and the sales certainly don't correlate with the size of the territory. I don't personally care how much it sold beyond "enough so it'll continue to be supported".
that was a separate point
That's your interpretation. The more reasonable interpretation in a sales thread is the relative share in the packaged software market. Population or landmass is quite an absurd thing to jump to.
The number in this thread refers to sold-through. The number you use refers to sell-in.
No it isn't. You're not going to convince anyone with a history of reading about sales on GAF that your interpretation is the one to jump to when we're talking about the console business.
There are basically two options here. Either Raist made a very idiotic point or you make a very idiotic retort. Having seen Raist in sales thread for several years I'm going to go with the retort being idiotic.
You think EA has Microsodt sold through for Xbox One when Microsoft investors don't? It makes more sense for them to use a sell-in. Is there anything suggesting this is a sold-through number?
They don't have those numbers. They don't claim to have those numbers.
They are estimating sold-through numbers, because that is what they said.
Source
How about you read the thread? Maybe the first page where the source is posted by myself.
No, read the post you first quoted again. I said markets, not countries. Nothing to do with population or landmass.
You should add "estimate" to the title since this isnt exactly a hard number.
Familienoberhauptvogel
Banned
Whoops, my bad sorry. Did you check them market by market or just assumed because of the correlation in population and general lacking demand outside US + UK? If you did that was quite the effort.
Welfare
Member
That "same guy" is the CFO of EA.
And that comment doesn't have much wrong with it. Microsoft said Xbox One sales tripled thanks to the $50 price cut, and the CFO of EA said sales were catching up quickly. He could've been referring to weekly sales and not in the way that "XB1 is over PS4", but XB1 sales are catching up to what the PS4 is selling, as nothing else make much sense and inferring it another way looks to be a way to try to somehow discredit his word.
Looks more like a statement on consumer sales, or are you going to argue that the XB1 is actually more around 17m shipped.
And why would it be a "rough estimate"? What? Would it only be "rough" if it were below 55m and this number is being rounded up or is it also a "rough" estimate if it were over 55m and EA were rounding down?
Don't know who said 21 million shipped.
Tier 1 ratio split looks like it's only grown in favor for the US by 1 percent. Maybe 2. 29 more countries is bringing that down. It isn't going to magically increase the US overall share WW.
Also, 19.1m would mean a 58:42 share between the US:ROTW. That is not it "falling significantly".
Added/ordered indicators for Tier 1 countries, and Tier 2 countries that were originally Tier 1, but delayed, and ordered them in alphabetical order. Looks more clean, and it was bugging me
...Scatter...
Banned
I thought Canada, Mexico and Brazil were solid markets for XBO due to certain price advantages. It probably sold well there. My cousin in Hungary has one so there is another+1
The EA numbers is a estimate & that estimate could have came from the PS4 37.7M shipped added to the better than Xbox 360 at this time in it's life cycle statement for Xbox One.
I don't think they will make a jump so quick this time but they will have to do something. they had plans for a $499 console but had to remove Kinect & now selling the Xbox One at around $300 with a game while still losing ground even after releasing Halo 5.
They have to be rethinking their plans right now. can a Xbox One slim put them at a good price & still bring in money from hardware?
PS4 is only $50 from the price it was at launch while Xbox One is around $200 from the price it attended to sell at, I don't think MS want to be selling this far under their launch price compared to PS4 just being $50 cheaper for too much longer.
tattooed_dwarf
Member
Thing is, those countries still add up, no matter how silly it is, so all we have is estimates. I would love to see at least those SW splits for all those tiny markets, and for bigger ones too. But we don't really get those, most PAL charts we get are top ten most. And in Nordic countries we don't even get individual rankings. We can count what we know, and then make estimates based on how big we think split is in each country, just like what you did there. But there is lots of room for error there too, especially if you have even tiniest hint if subjectivity on how you look at the numbers.
I didn't check country by country, certainly not no.
But there's lot of info you can find that will give you a good idea of what the size of these markets can reasonably be, and also how well the XB1 is performing in some of them.
I know who he is. That doesn't mean we should take his rather vague statements at face value.
I think it's 19M tops (shipped)
A 3.5% drop is significant, yes.
Added/ordered indicators for Tier 1 countries, and Tier 2 countries that were originally Tier 1, but delayed, and ordered them in alphabetical order. Looks more clean, and it was bugging me
Yeah well, couldn't be arsed
I'll reiterate because I think that's the crux of the argument.
The XB1 being over 19.1M at the end of 2015 would mean that it sold almost half as much as the PS4 in the markets we don't have solid numbers for, despite only being available significantly later in most of these, many of which are Sonyland, and also only being sold in 3 to 4 times less markets than the PS4.
Saying "it could still add up" is completely ignoring these facts, just for the sake of saying "who knows, could be!"
I don't think it could, because it doesn't make sense chronologically. That number dropped after this number did.
They have a perfectly good sold-through numbers from Sony for their own sold-through estimate.
The bigger problem is just accepting that estimate as being 100% on the money when Blake just said it to give some context about how well consoles are doing, just like he does every 3 months.
Don't do it. I think trying to extrapolate information based off a conference call without any context only leads to more assumptions being made. That's is clearly the case here. We know that some companies actually use (banned site) numbers. I wouldn't read to much into this Estimate.
So you don't think that EA could have gotten Sony shipped numbers a day before they was released but somehow think they have Microsoft numbers that they don't even plan to release at all?
The only solid information that we have for Xbox One is that it's doing better than Xbox 360 was doing at this point in it's life cycle.
"Xbox One continues to outpace Xbox 360 at the same point in time in the Xbox 360 generation, making it the best-selling console in Xbox console history."
No to both.
Edit: I just re-read what I wrote earlier. I edited it now because there is a lot of confusion and I added to it by using the wrong term for something that is not important in this thread.
Combichristoffersen
Combovers don't work when there is no hair
Random question: What do the MAU comments refer to?
What if I were to tell you that Ps3 was selling faster than both X1 and 360? So if Ps3 numbers were bad what does that make the other two consoles.
As long as software keeps moving X1 should have a long life.
Night Angel
Member
Monthly Active Users, the statistic that MS has switched to when reporting the state of the Xbox brand. People mock it because it completely obscures the performance of the XB1 by lumping it in with a service tied to several other pieces of hardware (which could potentially include OneDrive/PC, Windows Phone, 360, etc.). Also mocking the original announcement of the switch to MAU that suggested it was a more important metric to MS than hardware sales and totally not an attempt to lessen awareness of their relatively poor performance in the console space.Random question: What do the MAU comments refer to?
Combichristoffersen
Combovers don't work when there is no hair
Aha, thanks
I've seen it pop up in several threads related to Sony/PS4, and had no idea what people were talking about 
tattooed_dwarf
Member
It adds up, no matter what. I'm not saying number is 19.1. It adds up for Sony too in those tiny markets and in those where Xbone isn't even available. But I'm not really arguing anything here, EA's estimate is estimate and doesn't mean Xbone sold 55 minus 36,9. But it has to be around 18m, it's most plausible number, considering all info we have.
serversurfer
Member
An important thing to remember as we quibble over a million units and the accuracy and significance of EA's estimate is that market share estimates aren't really how companies like EA look at the market.
First, I should note this shows Ubi's Gen8 sales Jul-Sep, but they haven't posted Oct-Dec yet. That said, Bone's share has been on the decline overall, but we'll get a fresh peek in a week or two.
So, PS4 is at 35.9M. Bone might be at 18M, making the split 67/33. Maybe Bone is at 19M, making the split 65/35. Hell, Bone could even be at 20M, giving a 64/36 split.
But that doesn't really matter a great deal, because as far as Ubisoft are concerned and they and other publishers the ones who decide how platform support is awarded the PS4/Bone split is 69/31. Perhaps dual ownership causes some Bones to go unrepresented for multiplatform games. Perhaps PS4 owners buy a lot more DLC. Maybe they are more likely to buy the games themselves digitally, putting more money in to Ubi's pocket. Whatever causes combine to produce the result, at the end of the day, whether there are actually 15M or 25M Bone owners, as far as Ubi are concerned, they have the combined buying power of roughly 16M PS4 owners, compared to 36M actual PS4 owners.
That's the only split that publishers like Ubi, EA, and others actually care about. Those "phantom" Bone owners whatever the number will only really be a consideration for them when considering making Bone-exclusive stuff.
First, I should note this shows Ubi's Gen8 sales Jul-Sep, but they haven't posted Oct-Dec yet. That said, Bone's share has been on the decline overall, but we'll get a fresh peek in a week or two.
So, PS4 is at 35.9M. Bone might be at 18M, making the split 67/33. Maybe Bone is at 19M, making the split 65/35. Hell, Bone could even be at 20M, giving a 64/36 split.
But that doesn't really matter a great deal, because as far as Ubisoft are concerned and they and other publishers the ones who decide how platform support is awarded the PS4/Bone split is 69/31. Perhaps dual ownership causes some Bones to go unrepresented for multiplatform games. Perhaps PS4 owners buy a lot more DLC. Maybe they are more likely to buy the games themselves digitally, putting more money in to Ubi's pocket. Whatever causes combine to produce the result, at the end of the day, whether there are actually 15M or 25M Bone owners, as far as Ubi are concerned, they have the combined buying power of roughly 16M PS4 owners, compared to 36M actual PS4 owners.
That's the only split that publishers like Ubi, EA, and others actually care about. Those "phantom" Bone owners whatever the number will only really be a consideration for them when considering making Bone-exclusive stuff.
The Artisan
Member
i've always kinda wondered that. i feel like PC's game software sales is the only way to gauge the base for that because like almost everyone has a PC, but not everyone has it to play games.
Liabe Brave
Member
Because in the very same sentence he refers to 41.7% as "almost 50%". He is clearly ballparking everything.
Welfare
Member
41.7%? He never said that, and this isn't referring to shipped consoles.
Liabe Brave
Member
So your assertion is that EA not only have accurate sell-through numbers for PS4 and Xbox One, they also got the same numbers on a quarterly basis for PS3 and 360 last gen. And then--this part is the hardest to believe for me--a CFO is being careful to maintain high precision while answering a general guidance query on an investor call. And finally, that rigorous precision results in a figure that merely appears to be rounded to the nearest five.
What warrant do you have for assuming these things to be true?
Welfare
Member
It's an estimate. I thought this was known. They are a publisher that relies on these consoles for sales. They would have subscriptions to research/analytical companies like IDG and also have MS/Sony themselves to get data from, and they have been a publisher for decades. They would have historical data on the 360/PS3.
And so what if it is a 5? What does that even mean? It can't be a coincidence that it happens to end in a 5, there must be something wrong!
Why are you assuming that this isn't true or is stretching the truth?
Well yeah, it "adds up". But there's adding up and then there's adding up.
Just check how many websites are running with "XB1 sold over 19M" now. It's like it became a fact or something, without any sort of critical thinking for a minute.
tattooed_dwarf
Member
I agree that it's a problem with these and estimates. Like IGN didn't really explain how this isn't some fact.
The Artisan
Member
zhuge's link also says over 12 million Ps4s sold in the U.S. nice.