? I didn't.We knew that for weeks
What makes you think Sony or Microsoft share precise hardware sell-through numbers with EA? As for analytical companies, they're also estimating from available data. I'm not asking whether EA has some numbers they work with, I'm asking why you think that these numbers are very precise. Since you know they're estimates, possibly based on other estimates, that assertion seems strained.
Don't be ridiculous. Of course numbers that end with 0 or 5 in the units position can be precise. But you said it yourself, we know this particular number is an estimate. In addition, I know from years of personal experience the prevalence of rounded numbers when executives present data for internal meetings or public communication.
I'm assuming nothing of the kind. I totally agree with you that the number is true and was offered in good faith by EA. Where we differ is in our expectation of how precise the estimate is. You're adamant that it has to contain two significant digits, and I see no clear reason for that. Why could the underlying reality not be 53.4m, or 56.173m, or tons of other values?
I agree that it is not 55m, and yes, I think we differ on how precise/how much rounding is going into this number. I can see the number being in somewhere in the 54m range, but below that would be stretching how far the rounding is going in my eyes.
These are completely spurious numbers, and ironically indicative of the very imprecision you refuse to allow for EA. You've taken two data points--NPD at 95% and GfK at somewhere over 90%--then handwaved the entire rest of the world and jumped arbitrarily to 92%.
And we're right back at the crux of the problem. "In your eyes" is not data. Piled against your gut feeling are multiple factors:
The gaming media covered PS in a 3:2 ratio as opposed to Xbox this past year, thoughts? source: http://icopartners.com/2016/01/2015-in-review-games-in-the-media/
Actually, during Gamescom month, when Sony didn't even show, there were still nearly 20% more articles written about PlayStation. Over 30% more for E3 month.
As i stated "estimate" should have been in the title of this thread to save everyone the confusion. This is the "10 million Xbox Ones sold" fiasco all over again. People should not extrapolate from conference calls because we rarely have the full and proper context. Claiming these numbers are sold through when a company is literally no longer including them in their quarterly reports is a little far-fetched. You cannot support this claim without knowing what report the CFO was citing when he made those claims. There are too many assumptions that need to be made arrive at either conclusion. This works for both arguments.
Why would Microsoft choose to disclose that type of information to a 3rd party publisher rather than their own investors?
Sony numbers are public... EA just need to "guess" or ask to MS Xbone numbers.
Even if MS didn't disclose these info to EA I'm sure they have access to all major trackers around the world.
Xbone is barely tracking ahead 360 in the same time frame and most possible will be out passed when 360 enters in 2008 year...
Even this range represents 5% margin of error. That's the share of the US retail market NPD covers. So do you believe that the entire rest of the world is covered as accurately? Because that's what's required for such a range.
MS needs to increase sales to maintain ahead 360.
I do believe EA have access to these data:
That's the business focus, it'll come down from the CEO. It's a good reason in fairness IMO.
What? 360 was at 17.7m at end of 2007 lol
all of which indicate these are not WW figures?
Except Live MAU is significantly behind PSN, despite the enormous boost from W10 users. They report their Lumia sales despite them being only ~1% of the market, and I'm fairly sure Bone's doing better than that.
They use MAU because it's a metric that's relevant to one of their primary business interests; online services. It's basically the equivalent of a retailer reporting on their foot traffic. No, it doesn't tell you how much money they're making there are other numbers for that but it does give you a good idea of how much opportunity they have for monetization, just like foot traffic in retail.
Well, perhaps I am. I'd be kinda surprised if anyone other than the lawyers and accounts had a say in what goes in to the financials. Do you have anything to indicate PR filters this stuff?
Well, if Bone was trouncing PS4, they may not be getting out of the console business, but whatever the cause(s), that's what their financial reports tell us they're doing. The console business didn't survive the refocus. Maybe it would've if it was doing better, or maybe it was doomed the moment Nadella took the helm, but either way, they're done with it now.
It's not useless, but yes, it's of fairly limited use on its own. You need to combine it with ARPPU and that sort of thing to get a full picture of the health of the business.
Updated my graphs with latest data and also thrown in bonus N64 graph for the first time. As you can see, X1 is pretty close to it.
The points are at correct places, it just an optical illusion makes them seem lower than they are.
Updated my graphs with latest data and also thrown in bonus N64 graph for the first time. As you can see, X1 is pretty close to it.
Also update on PS4 shipped vs sold, as healthy as it can realistically be, imo.
For X1 used the 19M+-1M point, which is quite realistic estimate, according to this thread.
Your wish is my command.
And no, I'm not using Excel (hate that for graphs actually), I'm using Origin (scientific plotting/data analysis software)
Thinking about this a bit more, MAU and foot traffic are kind of akin to console unit sales; they don't really tell you about the business' health so much as its potential. Since consoles are typically sold at cost or even at a loss, selling 1M or 10M of them doesn't really say anything about how successful your business is, because that all comes later. Like MAU and foot traffic, console sales just show the general interest in your business, and the potential for monetization.
