CosmicQueso
Member
I'll go 1.2m.
It's around 13% or so bigger.
There's nothing to spin this month.
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March 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 12th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
I'll go 1.2m.
It's around 13% or so bigger.
There's nothing to spin this month.
WTF you trying to prove, man. I'm just saying. Jeez.
Yeah, good point, I should have stated "user base" instead of market share.
My apologies.
Plague Doctor
Member
NPD day has come. Do we need a new PR bingo board? I feel like the others are focussed on 2013-2015.
I think there's a huge growth opportunity for Uncharted.
Sony is marketing the game like never before, ads are everywhere and they're not just targeting core gamers.
This time the game is on the market leading console with a good chunk of the installed base made of newcomers to Playstation who want to find out what the game is all about.
I'm expecting more than a million including bundles in May NPD.
Sony is marketing the game like never before, ads are everywhere and they're not just targeting core gamers.
This time the game is on the market leading console with a good chunk of the installed base made of newcomers to Playstation who want to find out what the game is all about.
I'm expecting more than a million including bundles in May NPD.
That would be a very good number. Do we know what would be the last exclusive to hit that number? I have no idea, but guessing it would go back to last gen of consoles. Did the Last of Us debut at that?
EDIT: For clarification are you guessing 1.2 m counting digital and bundles? Or just pure retail SKU?
LOL. You know we be getting MAU numbers, and Xbox live hours/unique users and PR spin on QB.
demigod
Member
Are you sure? So more users logged into The Division on PS4 than Xbox One?
DriftingSpirit
Member
Indeed, but I wouldn't call that "substantially bigger". The WW gap is substantially bigger, for example.
I also think a few more things should be taken into consideration.
1. The last few Ratchet and Clank have not performed well. I don't think brand power means much here.
2. Quantum Break has received more advertising (at least in my area) and it is the sort of game that aligns with the Xbox userbase.
3. QB also has more time as Ratchet and Clank came out a week later.
I think QB has the edge.
No, TLOU was a little under 1 million.
CosmicQueso
Member
Nothing comes close this gen. Second Son less than half that. TLOU debuted at just under 1m. Would be way up over past UC.
I was thinking packaged and bundle. No digital. Since Rex keeps getting himself banned, call it my Rex Crazy Prediction (RIP Edition).
When is Rex coming back. Any ideas?
I bet there were more Division characters made on XBox One this month.
I'd say that Uncharted 4 will open bigger than Halo 5 in its debut month, excluding digital and bundle sales. I can never remember my rough estimation for it, so I'll just say above 850K.
The game looks great, also I recall seeing ads for it this winter in movie theaters and such. Seems like Sony marketing is pumping some $$ in this game. I'm just sad I'm working almost 2 weeks straight when it comes out; going to have to go on NeoGAF blackout during that timeframe.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Don't say this!
I think I am going to up mine to 1M. I just want to be conservative.
CosmicQueso
Member
Don't say this!
Welcome to the AAA video game market in 2016. I don't like it either, but a combination of competitive products offering much longer playtime via integrated competitive mp and co-op with MMO lite mechanics, and the advent of streaming, old school linear story based games just do not sell like the used to. I'll never get another Condemned, and that sucks.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Single player only, cinematic linear games certainly do not align with the Xbox user base at any point in history.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Brb going to go cry over my copy of R&C.
Well, I was focusing on the shooter part of it but you're inclined to disagree either way.
Welfare
Member
What's a Below (Game is vaporware at this point and was never "high profile")?
Ori also isn't high profile, it's just there.
Killer Instinct I would say is high profile for MS because of the promotions it has gotten so far, it actually being successful, and the fact they put it on Windows 10 along side the S3 release on Xbox.
Recore is up in the air at this point. We'd have to wait for E3 on this one.
Cuphead is a 2D sidescroller indie title that looks like a Disney cartoon. Great for GAF(!) but the general audience probably won't care for it.
How will Sea of Thieves not be high profile? This isn't Viva Pinata: Party Animals, it's an actual non Kinect Rare exclusive. MS will be pushing that thing up front and center.
How are Abzu, Alienation, Dreams, Firewatch, Gravity Rush, Nioh, Shadow of the Beast, The Tomorrow Children, and The Witness "high profile" exclusives? Most of them are tiny titles, or irrelevant to the US market.
Ratchet and Clank has dropped in popularity in the US since the PS2 days, with recent PS3 failing to break 100k in debut month. A remake(remaster?) of the original won't do much.
Star Ocean 5 is going to flop hard.
The Last Guardian is a meme on the internet. High profile for everyone it is not.
Nightengale
Member
View counts are not everything and E3 trailers are easily inflated, but anecdotally TLG got a lot of attention and eyeballs from its rereveal.
Depending on whether or not that height of attention is a one and done thing, it may very well be bigger than what is normally thought of a title like TLG.
Depending on whether or not that height of attention is a one and done thing, it may very well be bigger than what is normally thought of a title like TLG.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
What is not much? It will probably double that number at worst. You seem to be basing your prediction entirely on the past and completely ignoring what is happening with the current game now. If you made this comment last week you might not find much disagreement, but it quite obviously performing well. I know Amazon is not he a good barometer much a game has sold, but when it is sitting in top 2 spots for most of the week that will likely translate to pretty good sales overall in the U.S.
Totaleclipes
Banned
I almost had an heart attack reading this with the amount of salt your throwing with these baseless "tooth fairy" type predictions.
Anyone remember this?
Uncharted being outsold by Halo shouldn't be a big deal...but the opposite? Hooo boy~
The Last One
Member
I forgot to predict this month. T_T
Oh well, it's not like I would be in top 50 anyway lol
Oh well, it's not like I would be in top 50 anyway lol
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Yeah he definitely seems to be talking out of his ass right now when normally he is pretty reasonable.
I think it is almost expected now after Halo 5 seriously underperformed.
Welfare
Member
Is 200k in 3 weeks a "high profile" appearance? No.
No salt, just saying that these insignificant titles aren't actually going to be on most consumers lists at all.
I mean, on the PS4, the biggest games we are going to see this year are Uncharted 4, maybe No Man's Sky, Horizon Zero Dawn, and GT Sport. Xbox has Gears 4, probably Sea of Thieves, and Halo Wars 2.
DriftingSpirit
Member
StrongBlackVine
Banned
No I said at a minimum it will do that. What is significant to you? 300k? 500k?
High profile games like Rise Of the Tom Raider and Street Fighter V had 200k debuts. Are you saying Quantum Break is not a high profile release now because R&C will probably sell more? I don't think you would have said that it's not earlier this month.
Didn't you eat some serious crow on Bloodborne last year with a similar prediction?
I would say for an exclusive about 500K is significant as for LT sales.
Launch month depend with what game we are talking about. A game can not have a big launch, just like the first Uncharted which sold only 206,000 in December 2007, but if the game have strong legs, that's ok.
Launch month depend with what game we are talking about. A game can not have a big launch, just like the first Uncharted which sold only 206,000 in December 2007, but if the game have strong legs, that's ok.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
If that is that is threshold then not many games are significant at all. I was thinking 300k to 350k would be significant for an exclusive.
CosmicQueso
Member
The dedicated console market only generates 1 or 2 titles a month that can actually be considered high profile enough to be noticed by the mass market anymore, sadly.
You thinking a couple hundred thousand launch month, or are you thinking more >500k?
You thinking a couple hundred thousand launch month, or are you thinking more >500k?
harrisk954
Member
There is something to "spin" every month. Unless there is a HUGE shock and XB1 beat out PS4, I expect the usual "spin" from MS PR. Of course, in the astronomically remote chance that PS4 loses, there will be "spin" from Sony.
Uncharted sold 117k in his first month ( November 2007 )IIRC .
Welfare
Member
IIRC, Tomb Raider and SFV were massive flops because they were high profile franchises that went exclusive and only managed 200k. Quantum Break is going to disappoint at 200k. R&C doing 200k would be a surprise.
Also how should we know R&C will sell more than QB? Amazon?
Rex, where are you?
CosmicQueso
Member
Yeah, but that's not a good game.
That's only because people are bored. There's nothing worth spinning this month I should say.
Games cost a lot more to make now than they did back in 07.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Come on cosmic halo still sold over 2 million in one month in 2012 .
Get your 00's right lol .
StrongBlackVine
Banned
By extrapolating the poor UK sales to U.S. We will have to wait a while for R&C's UK debut, but it should be able to best 27k.
CosmicQueso
Member
Holy crap you're right. That was only 4 years ago? Feels like a lot longer ago, doesn't it?
I am shamed.
300,000 / 350,000 is very low. I mean, Street Fighter and Tomb Raider sold both over 200,000 only first NPD...
WHAT?!
Oh crap that's true xD December was the Italy release date lol.
Nightengale
Member
With this latest rant I start to believe that one should not post when high.
When has "high profile" meant successful, and when has it necessarily meant "with as much visibility as Halo, CoD or Candy Crush"?
High Profile= a lot of attention, in this case among gamers (we're on NeoGaf, yes?), and these have been on the forehead in coms and E3 presentations. All titles mentionned fit the bill, and I'm sorry that it hurts your sensibilities... #shrug
StrongBlackVine
Banned
I meant a 300k debut month. I didn't realize you were talking about lifetime sales so I think we are in the same ballpark for significance.
gundamkyoukai
Member
With all this talk \rumors about new hardware from everyone it does feel longer .
Chobel
Member
C'mon now! NIOH is definitely high profile.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
UC4 is going to do monster numbers. I think it will do over a million first month, especially combined. WW it is going to be even bigger. You think ND pre TLOU was big they are giants now.
Anyone remember this?
Uncharted being outsold by Halo shouldn't be a big deal...but the opposite? Hooo boy~
I know it's Aaron's job but, he's more annoying than all the other PR guys COMBINED....wow
You could try guessing how many times W10 is gonna be mentioned in the statement.
I kinda miss old cocky Greenberg and hyrb.