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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)
- Status
Jigsaah
Gold Member
When the CMA blocked the deal didn't the stock go up for Activision?Hmmm
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Member
Hmmm
So is this the new Xbox exclusive I keep hearing about? I could run this on a graphing calculator!
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Member
Yeah Sony, just spend 30 years building up a once-in-a-lifetime breakout IP like Pokemon. It's easy!!
Mochilador
Member
Damn, the judge is out for blood. 
Kilau
Member
Thirty7ven
Banned
Bailey also out there trying to put mobile and consoles in the same box. Fuck outta here.
So sports broadcast is the same as movies. It’s all hours in the day, all the same. If the judge falls for this shit it’s because she wants to.
So sports broadcast is the same as movies. It’s all hours in the day, all the same. If the judge falls for this shit it’s because she wants to.
bxrz
Member
Because its probably not possible to get telemetry data for mobile or PC. Who are you going to? PC is an open platform and I doubt Google/Apple will give Microsoft any of their mobile data to challenge their duopoly
T4keD0wN
Member
This explains so much and i feel so sorry for my American folks, if this is what attempts to protect consumers from major deals look like, i cant even imagine how much less effort they put into smaller deals. Dr. Lee wasnt even able to answer half the stuff while Bailey actually came with preparation, what a contrast.
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Member
It doesn't matter the substance of anything she says. If they're on MS's side, they automatically "win" in the eyes of the Xbox fanatics.
TBF, there has been some of that happening with PlayStation fanatics on everything the FTC's presented, even when some things were a bit on the weaker side there here and there. But it's nowhere to the level of those doing it for Xbox/Microsoft.
bxrz
Member
They're giving her praise cause they heard Dr. Lee speak in circles for a hour lol
POKEYCLYDE
Member
Microsoft went up, Activision went down.
Please, give me a break. You telling me Activision don't have telemetry data from mobile or PC? What even are you arguing? She was saying "we found gamers are the same age everywhere in the world so they don't differ in their decision making it's global" which is the biggest crock of shit I've heard.
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ToadMan
Member
What you heard was Lee being cross examined by MS‘s counsel. IE hostile.
Bailey is working for MS and being questioned by MS counsel - not hostile.
That’s not to say she’ll fall to the FTC cross examination, just … apples to apples.
Oh also, her company is paid $1200 per hour to work on this since last year. Better be good for that kind of money.
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Corrik
Member
Weird how all of his analysis was market shift WORLDWIDE then.
T4keD0wN
Member
I thought he was examined almost exclusively by the judge?
Otherwise yeah examining your witness will obviously be much easier on them, but she was also asked stuff by the judge.
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tryDEATH
Member
Bailey seems to have far more precise data than Lee, who is going on a more predictive/speculative patters vs. factual data that Sony, Microsoft, and ABK provided to Bailey. She will be a far more convincing to the Judge and should have an easier time defending her position by pointing to numbers and not have to make speculative statements based on complicated formulas and research material from secondary sources that don't reveal all necessary information to make definitive statements on like Lee.
The FTC simple is unable to get head or even gain ground on MS at this point. I really feel like the FTC wasn't prepared for this, it seems such a weak fight from them.
The FTC simple is unable to get head or even gain ground on MS at this point. I really feel like the FTC wasn't prepared for this, it seems such a weak fight from them.
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adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Corrik
Member
Plummeted like a rock. Go look at the past 6 month chart on their stock.
Jigsaah
Gold Member
oh ok, my mistake.
ToadMan
Member
No - his deposition was submitted by document. What was streamed today was the MS cross examination and the FTC counsel follow up.
The judge is there of course and asked a few questions for herself.
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Member
Any bets on how tomorrow's testimony will go?
Varteras
Gold Member
Sony will either target a bigger company that checks off multiple boxes for them or a series of smaller ones to cover their bases. Sony wants that mobile market. But right now, their strategy for it is way too slow and banking way too much on luck. The only two realistic targets for Sony to get really big into mobile overnight are CyberAgent and Take-Two. Though the latter is immensely more expensive and will absolutely get serious regulatory scrutiny. But it also comes with a number of great IP. Which Sony can feed into their expanding entertainment ventures. Square Enix also checks a lot of boxes for Sony. Live service, mobile, RPGs, and great transmedia opportunities. Not to mention their solid, long-running relationship.
Sony has likely already been looking into their current capital alliance with Kadokawa, of which CyberAgent is also a part of, and their current 14% ownership of FromSoft. I will not be surprised in the least bit if Sony makes a move there in some way. Buying Kadokawa or increasing their share percentage in both them and FromSoft. Could even make a play to buy out Kadokawa's majority ownership and get into some kind of agreement with them to help them further their other agendas. There really aren't that many large independent developers left so I wouldn't expect much in that area. They could surprise us and announce that they bought Remedy or People Can Fly, but I don't know how much value they see in them. Especially when they could be looking at $400+million for either one.
CDP, EA, Ubisoft, Bandai, Konami, Koei, Embracer, Sega... you're just not going to convince me that any of those are on Sony's radar. Capcom is the only other major company I think Sony would make a play for, and I honestly believe that will happen only in a purely defensive move where they get wind that they are seriously considering an offer from a competitor. I still think Sony will look mostly towards smaller companies with clear talent.
PaintTinJr
Member
Because it let them completely misrepresent the statistics by making the first day's use of the PS5 all important - where gamers typically would play something new with next-gen graphics like GoW - as a means of massively under tracking how many PS5 gamers were buying it primarily for CoD.
The economist made no reference to what each bundle + the other game would cost, and made no reference to telemetry of if CoD players typically buy digital or physical, or buy the higher bundle because of discounted savings.
You could buy a PS5 with GoW and buy CoD as a digital deluxe or as a physical discounted copy, used or discounted new and spend less than getting a PS5 bundled with CoD, and then having to buy the digital CoD extras and buy GoW at the full 70 day one price.
The analysis is just being analysed with intended bias to extract the conclusions they want to present to the judge.
FoxMcChief
Gold Member
Entertaining.
Because it's rendered irrelevant by the 10 year deal MS signed with Nvidia to bring Activision and Xbox content to Geforce Now by purchase or via GP.
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adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Is it still happening or did they wrap up for the day?
FrankWza
Member
Because, like throwing to RBs in the west coast offense, it's fundamental to the playbook.
Or Spiderman? God of War? Horizon? TLOU?
The mass market isn't doing that. C'mon.
dotnotbot
Member
? All of them combined, they're nowhere close to Pokemon IP.
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Looks like Dr. Bailey kinda threw Dr. Lee under the bus.
Poor Lee, he probably didn't have this in his diary when he arrived.
Poor Lee, he probably didn't have this in his diary when he arrived.
PaintTinJr
Member
Everyone is considered to be price sensitive in gaming, and the economist used a dubious anecdote about choosing her own bundle for her PS5, when the Judge cottoned on to whether gamers actual got a choice of bundle or not when they went to buy.
I very much doubt the analyst was in a store that had both bundles available to her in the time frame she mentioned with the stock availability as it was back then.
Either way, the install process of CoD alone skews her analysis of what people would play first day, because GoW could be installed without internet, and CoD might take days for people with rubbish broadband to download the 50GB.
Her analysis is completely primed for its purpose.
graywolf323
Member
”There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” - Mark TwainLooks like Dr. Bailey kinda threw Dr. Lee under the bus.
Poor Lee, he probably didn't have this in his diary when he arrived.
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thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Member
Nothing guarantees those IP will hold the same or increased relevancy 10 years from now. Hell, the MCU is in shambles right now, no telling what that could do to Spiderman long-term if Disney/Marvel don't fix things up.
Also outside of maybe Spiderman those other IP don't have the longer-term timelessness of a Mario or Pokemon. Granted, that's on Sony to resolve and making some big IP that aren't necessarily tied to big epic stories (all stories have to conclude eventually). But all the same, none of that justifies MS buying ABK under the idea Sony will be okay because they have big tentpole IP currently.
And if Sony can just make more of them in the future, or continue to keep what they have massively relevant, why can't Microsoft do that with the IP they already own without resorting to buying ABK? IF Microsoft for some reason can't, and need ABK as a result, shouldn't that make them less trustworthy with handling ABK properly?
I can agree with this. My only issue with Kadokawa is that with their large presence in anime, it could create a bit of a snag for Sony in some global markets due to their large presence in anime streaming with Crunchyroll and Funimation. Though I think it could also work in Sony's favor, in that other companies with massive streaming platforms have acquired content to have a foot in the market as actual content makers of 1P assets alongside some 3P ones. Disney, for example, is a big example of that.
If Sony could acquire Kadokawa though, that would be a big get and get them a lot of what they need. Take-Two, they can buy shares & make investments into instead. Like you, I think Capcom would fit into their plans for content securement, just unsure if that would be through an acquisition. Probably more along the lines of what they do with Square-Enix today, meanwhile they might look into acquiring Square-Enix itself. Some key investments & shares into CDPR would also be a good idea, and the same with mid-sized publishers like Devolver Digital and Annapurna.
Outside of that acquisition-wise I don't think they would need anything else outside of some teams that could do well for an expanded effort of further 1P software diversification via AA-tier/budgeted content that can tap into legacy IP. Sony's big AAA studios are beyond those games now, but I think Sony could do a better job on 1P AA-type side of software and pair that with tapping into legacy IP, for games that can serve both console and even mobile well. Maybe cut back some of that live-service/GaaS budget and PC porting schedule (at least for the big AAA releases; I think stuff like PS3/PS4 remaster compilations can serve well on console & PC, and also maybe mobile) and put it towards this instead.
One clear thing is, they can't afford to just go forward with things like it's business as usual. In the likelihood this ABK deal goes through, Sony have to make some substantial moves in gaming . They don't need to overdo it, but they have do some.
Gameplay Gods Bless
Member
Homie the FTC and the courts already have a federal trial scheduled to litigate this acquisition, that's the real trial. There is only one reason why the FTC would request a restraining order + PI that prevents a company from closing and that's because they were told they'd close, that is the purpose of a PI. You don't waste a courts resources asking for restraining orders on things that aren't happening... Could you imagine a world where you can waste a Judges time asking for things without any justification as to why you need them?
Here's another lesson for you: the preliminary in preliminary injunction means "prior/preceding" the matter being settled in the actual trial. If US law worked like you imagined the FTC would have filed the restraining order and PI in December not now. PI motions are rare and hard to attain because acquisitions are allowed to close by default in the US as the FTC and DOJ have the power to litigate after closing.
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Topher
Gold Member
You keep deflecting. I asked where MS said anything about closing on the deal.
That's the lesson for you. Don't talk about shit if you don't have facts. And no, you don't because MS factually has said nothing about closing. So you are just wrong, "homie".
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dotnotbot
Member
Tomorrow
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
I thought he was today but apparently tomorrow.
Just a few more people left. I'm not sure if Thursday will have hearings too or just the judge's decision.
Exactly, I mean how do you look at a statistic like this:
And conclude that globally it's all similar in competition concerns. There could be 11 people from NA and 1 guy from Croatia and it would be included in the percentage of lobbies/groups that had an international player but the NA players would be where your main market is and where you make the most money since it outweighs it 11 to 1. It was heavily massaged data.
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ToadMan
Member
Just on this point Sony already have a significant stake in From Soft and when that was announced, Sony, Tencent and Kudokawa described it as a strategic partnership.
In the announcement, Kadokawa explained that the three companies had operated a “strategic alliance in the anime and game fields” since October 2021. Kadokawa said these recent investments would be used to further expand FromSoftware’s expansion into the global market and strengthen the triumvirate formed with Tencent and Sony.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/video-games/2022/08/31/sony-tencent-fromsoftware/
So I don’t think there will be much movement there now - too many fingers in that pie but equally it keeps From Soft safe from other aggressive buyers.
It also seems this part of the news - Sony working with Tencent and Kadokawa goes a little under-represented. Perhaps if Sony do need a cash injection or indeed a content partner to offset challenges and grow beyond consoles, Tencent will be the first port of call.
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PaintTinJr
Member
Yeah, I was think that, straight after I stopped thinking about how intellectually bankrupt her whole comment was for gaming, because even the best players in the world can't compete in adverse lag conditions and internationally diverse lobbies for competitive games are not where even a mediocre experience can be had, because game latency is proportional to hop counts from the distant players to the nexus of the lobby players.
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Wulfer
Member
Thirty7ven
Banned
Like a BT sport saying they don’t want to bid for PL rights anymore so they buy the league and then argue other broadcasters can make their own league or start investing in Beach Volleyball. Your honor more people watch Netflix, this is nothing. Look at all this telemetry about cooking shows.
Then the judge turns around and says “I got a TV at home, I know you can watch pretty much anything in it. Don’t see any difference between YouTube and Xcloud. It’s all a button away on the remote”
Then the judge turns around and says “I got a TV at home, I know you can watch pretty much anything in it. Don’t see any difference between YouTube and Xcloud. It’s all a button away on the remote”
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