The ship would have sailed anyway because otherwise on what grounds would anyone pick one console over the other? Or worse, why would anyone buy both? The platforms have to have differentiation on what they're providing the customer, and being videogame machines means the differentiation will unavoidably end up being games and hardware price. And you can only go so far with the latter.
Your second point, in my opinion, is missing the crucial insight that the business from a console manufacturer's perspective has nothing to do with any particular game's production being covered by sales (unlike the case with third-party publishers). What matters is if the entire division as whole reaches your profitability target. If by having exclusive games that people want means that people will a) buy your console over the competition or buy both, b) subscribe monthly, and c) buy third-party software from which you get a 20-30% cut, then it's just a matter of reaching enough users for the whole thing to be more than justified. It has nothing to do with Starfield or whatever selling enough to pay for itself. It's not about any particular game but the entire division's profit levels as a whole.
