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March 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 12th

C

CosmicQueso

Member
allan-bh said:
Quantum Break opening was worse than The Order in UK. April NPD just become more interesting to watch...
Click to expand...

Another nail in the coffin of single player linear narrative games.

EDIT: Adding "10 hour" to the mix because slavesnyder is ruthless and a stickler for detail.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
Was checking the April Amazon monthly to see how well R&C is doing there (quite well), I was really surprised at the XB1 current situation.

Anyone from Gamestop around that could give us a sense of how well the $100 trade in offer is working there (even anecdotally)? Because right now, if the month continues looking like this (and second IF - IF Amazon is indeed representative), it's borderline catastrophic imo.
So far it looks like the QB bundle is not really making up (on Amazon) for the GeoW bundle being phased out, even at $299 with the "temporary" price reduction

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2016-04/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar#1
 
S

Stanng243

Member
Elandyll said:
Was checking the April Amazon monthly to see how well R&C is doing there (quite well), I was really surprised at the XB1 current situation.

Anyone from Gamestop around that could give us a sense of how well the $100 trade in offer is working there (even anecdotally)? Because right now, if the month continues looking like this (and second IF - IF Amazon is indeed representative), it's borderline catastrophic imo.
So far it looks like the QB bundle is not really making up (on Amazon) for the GeoW bundle being phased out, even at $299 with the "temporary" price reduction

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2016-04/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar#1
Click to expand...

I think that's just proof that people aren't using Amazon to buy Xbox ones this month. The first one is at #100 unless I missed something? That's a large gap.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Ok so, NPD is out in 3 days. I know i already asked about it, but since we are almost here, i was thinking, what do you think The Division will perform on PS4 and XBO as better launch of the gen?

TOP TEN LAUNCH MONTH GAMES NPD PS4 / XBO:

1. Call of Duty: Black Ops III (PS4) – 2,140,000
2. Call of Duty: Black Ops III (XBO) – 1,935,000
3. Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (XBO) – 1,449,000
4. Fallout 4 (XBO) – 1,274,000
5. Fallout 4 (PS4) – 1,264,000
6. Star Wars: Battlefront (PS4) – 1,258,000
7. Destiny (PS4) < 1,191,000
8. Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (PS4) &#8211; 1,160,000
9. Assassin&#8217;s Creed: Unity (XBO) < 1,153,000
10. Titanfall (XBO) &#8211; 1,083,000

*Retail only, including bundle
* Estimated numbers not 100% confirmed, and some position as well can be uncorrect.

Where will The Division chart for both console?
I guess The Division (XBO) at number #8, between Destiny and Advanced Warfare for PS4, and The Division (PS4) at #4, between Advanced Warfare and Fallout 4 for XBO.
 
demigod

demigod

Member
DriftingSpirit said:
As well as my R&C > QB proposal!
Click to expand...

lol, i think you'll be right. Honestly I can't believe its reviewing higher than QB.


Saw an Xbone commercial last night on AMC and it states the price is $299, didn't even say "for a limited time". Wonder if this is the new permanent price.
 
S

Stanng243

Member
demigod said:
lol, i think you'll be right. Honestly I can't believe its reviewing higher than QB.


Saw an Xbone commercial last night on AMC and it states the price is $299, didn't even say "for a limited time". Wonder if this is the new permanent price.
Click to expand...
I doubt it will be permanent. You need the price to expire for a couple of weeks, so they can put out major PR "Xbox One permanently drops to 299."
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Elandyll said:
Was checking the April Amazon monthly to see how well R&C is doing there (quite well), I was really surprised at the XB1 current situation.

Anyone from Gamestop around that could give us a sense of how well the $100 trade in offer is working there (even anecdotally)? Because right now, if the month continues looking like this (and second IF - IF Amazon is indeed representative), it's borderline catastrophic imo.
So far it looks like the QB bundle is not really making up (on Amazon) for the GeoW bundle being phased out, even at $299 with the "temporary" price reduction

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2016-04/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar#1
Click to expand...

I'm expecting about another 100k Gap between the two consoles this month.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
Ok so, NPD is out in 3 days. I know i already asked about it, but since we are almost here, i was thinking, what do you think The Division will perform on PS4 and XBO as better launch of the gen?

Where will The Division chart for both console?
I guess The Division (XBO) at number #8, between Destiny and Advanced Warfare for PS4, and The Division (PS4) at #4, between Advanced Warfare and Fallout 4 for XBO.
Click to expand...
I'm thinking

1. Call of Duty: Black Ops III (PS4) &#8211; 2,140,000
2. Call of Duty: Black Ops III (XBO) &#8211; 1,935,000
3. Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (XBO) &#8211; 1,449,000
4. Fallout 4 (XBO) &#8211; 1,274,000
5. Fallout 4 (PS4) &#8211; 1,264,000
6. Star Wars: Battlefront (PS4) &#8211; 1,258,000
7. The Division (XBO)
8. Destiny (PS4) < 1,191,000
9. Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (PS4) &#8211; 1,160,000
10. Assassin&#8217;s Creed: Unity (XBO) < 1,153,000

PS4 version will just barely miss the top 10, but still do more than Titanfall.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Fat4all said:
They included this kinda vague pie chart

Cidc2kP.png
Click to expand...

AmyS said:
Is that pie chart even remotely accurate ?
Click to expand...

These are certainly in the ballpark of most extrapolations, yes.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Welfare said:
I'm thinking

1. Call of Duty: Black Ops III (PS4) – 2,140,000
2. Call of Duty: Black Ops III (XBO) – 1,935,000
3. Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (XBO) – 1,449,000
4. Fallout 4 (XBO) – 1,274,000
5. Fallout 4 (PS4) – 1,264,000
6. Star Wars: Battlefront (PS4) – 1,258,000
7. The Division (XBO)
8. Destiny (PS4) < 1,191,000
9. Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (PS4) – 1,160,000
10. Assassin’s Creed: Unity (XBO) < 1,153,000

PS4 version will just barely miss the top 10, but still do more than Titanfall.
Click to expand...

You think The Division will sell more on XBO? :O

Well, in UK the split between the two version was well in favour of PS4, (54% VS 45%).
I expect a smaller gap in USA, as usual, but PS4 should still be easy the best selling version, imo.

Like 52.5% PS4 VS 47.5% XBO:

PS4 - 1.32m
XBO - 1.18m
TOT - 2.50m
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
You think The Division will sell more on XBO? :O

Well, in UK the split between the two version was well in favour of PS4, (54% VS 45%).
I expect a smaller gap in USA, as usual, but PS4 should still be easy the best selling version, imo.

Like 52.5% PS4 VS 47.5% XBO:

PS4 - 1.32m
XBO - 1.18m
TOT - 2.50m
Click to expand...

I'm thinking it'll be more even in the US on a pure software front, and then bundles will push it in favor for the XB1.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Dash_Riprock said:
~100k difference between PS4 and XB1, with Wii U irrelevant as per usual.
Click to expand...
The sad thing is that this is a given. 2:1 would provoke emotions, but even a 100k gap is "so what territory" now.

Seems like it will be a flow of clear Ps4 wins, accompanied by a few close wins and some large ones. VR will only push this tendency further.

Maybe an incremental Xbox could make a dent, as long as there is no Sony counterpart, or a weaker PS4k in power or concept.

If, and that's still possible, there comes an incremental PS4 and nothing from Microsoft it will get ugly. After all, NPD is still xbox's strongest territory. I don't think things went better worldwide since we got some numbers a few months ago.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
slavesnyder said:
The sad thing is that this is a given. 2:1 would provoke emotions, but even a 100k gap is "so what territory" now.

Seems like it will be a flow of clear Ps4 wins, accompanied by a few close wins and some large ones. VR will only push this tendency further.

Maybe an incremental Xbox could make a dent, as long as there is no Sony counterpart, or a weaker PS4k in power or concept.

If, and that's still possible, there comes an incremental PS4 and nothing from Microsoft it will get ugly. After all, NPD is still xbox's strongest territory. I don't think things went better worldwide since we got some numbers a few months ago.
Click to expand...

Yea. I doubt Xb1 wins April even with QB. The next game to help push sales in Gears.
 
C

Conduit

Banned
Boke1879 said:
Yea. I doubt Xb1 wins April even with QB. The next game to help push sales in Gears.
Click to expand...

But there is trade-in ( PS3/X360 ) deal for Xbone at Gamestop which will last till end of April ( started at March 21st ). If that trade-in deal won't do some push in March, then i don't see it will do jackshit in April either. And also Xbone is at 299$ since February too. That didn't helped much.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Boke1879 said:
Yea. I doubt Xb1 wins April even with QB. The next game to help push sales in Gears.
Click to expand...
April might work. At least QB is a great exclusive game, and the white xbox looks really nice.
After that, until Gears, only price drops or force majeure (heavy PSN hack or so) could help.
Talks and deeds from MS about console business not being a priority are understandable, but they don't help.
Shin-chan said:
A lot will also rely on which platform scoops up the third party holiday marketing bonanza. What will be 2016s Star Wars, Destiny or Ass Cred double pack?
Click to expand...
You are right. It will be interesting to see how matchmaking goes.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
The PS4 vs Xbox One is no longer an interesting thing to look at, unless it's just at what % of PS4 the Xbox One can hold onto.

The console war this gen...

giphy.gif
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
twinturbo2 said:
I have this funny feeling that Sony is going to get the Titanfall 2 marketing deal...
Click to expand...

Dash_Riprock said:
God I'm already imagining the salt and meltdowns...
Click to expand...

It would be very silly for MS to not make a deal for Titanfall to continue on being advertised with the Xbox brand this gen after what happened with the first game.

They'll at least have early play on EA Access (well, unless Sony gets on board with the service this year).
 
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