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March 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 12th

W

watdaeff4

Member
Guymelef said:
And the poster was talking about Mass Effect deal basing on Npd numbers.
Or maybe he was refering to a marketing deal only for Us...
Click to expand...

I was just responding to his comment that FO4 charted higher in NPD on PS4 than XB1. Nothing else.

C'mon now, sales of previous games might have some factor in this (i.e. who "gets" what marketing deals), but the big factor will be $$$.

Let's not kid ourselves.
 
C

Conduit

Banned
watdaeff4 said:
I was just responding to his comment that FO4 charted higher in NPD on PS4 than XB1. Nothing else.
Click to expand...


But it is, isn't it? I clearly said at retail. And also i didn't find any Xbone numbers with bundles.

I only found retail numbers : PS4 version of Fallout 4 1.91 mil, Xbone 1.75 mil. If you have numbers with bundles, please provide it.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
Conduit said:
But it is, isn't it? I clearly said at retail. And also i didn't find any Xbone numbers with bundles.

I only found retail numbers : PS4 version of Fallout 4 1.91 mil, Xbone 1.75 mil. If you have numbers with bundles, please provide it.
Click to expand...
I think the info about + bundles came from Georges Mulcair and for the Nov/ Dec time period, but who knows what the situation is right now, considering that FO4 retail PS4 continued to outsell the XB1 version in both Jan and Feb?

I also doubt that a multinational like EA solely base their Marketing deals on the NA market... This is a decision with global consequences in terms of sales.
Not sure what the split will be in that regard between TF2, Mass Effect and a very probable Star Wars game to go alongside Rogue One, though I do expect this last one to lean PS4 after Battlefront's marketing success.

With already CoD and Destiny heavy on PS4 maybe ME makes the most sense... #shrug
 
W

watdaeff4

Member
Conduit said:
But it is, isn't it? I clearly said at retail. And also i didn't find any Xbone numbers with bundles.

I only found retail numbers : PS4 version of Fallout 4 1.91 mil, Xbone 1.75 mil. If you have numbers with bundles, please provide it.
Click to expand...

Other poster responded to you and I said it initially it was already discussed in those respective threads.

Carry on.
 
Q

QaaQer

Member
watdaeff4 said:
I was just responding to his comment that FO4 charted higher in NPD on PS4 than XB1. Nothing else.

C'mon now, sales of previous games might have some factor in this (i.e. who "gets" what marketing deals), but the big factor will be $$$.

Let's not kid ourselves.
Click to expand...

It isn't just in-the-hand money, exposure matters as well. Online shooters live and die by player count.

Activ probably doesn't want anything to take any mindshare away from CoD on ps4, so maybe they will have the last say on what other deals Sony can strike. CoD, ME, & RoboDinoMonHun makes more sense from acti's perspective than CoD, Battlefield, Horizon.

* * *

It looks like grindy onlime shooters are what console players want in 2016, even Nintendo first players. Nintendo held national splatoon competitions in JPN, have they done that for any other game?
 
A

AnthonypUK

Member
Elandyll said:
I think the info about + bundles came from Georges Mulcair and for the Nov/ Dec time period, but who knows what the situation is right now, considering that FO4 retail PS4 continued to outsell the XB1 version in both Jan and Feb?

I also doubt that a multinational like EA solely base their Marketing deals on the NA market... This is a decision with global consequences in terms of sales.
Not sure what the split will be in that regard between TF2, Mass Effect and a very probable Star Wars game to go alongside Rogue One, though I do expect this last one to lean PS4 after Battlefront's marketing success.

With already CoD and Destiny heavy on PS4 maybe ME makes the most sense... #shrug
Click to expand...


Anything Star Wars will go to Sony, Disney handles Star Wars marketing and they're tight with Sony - See Battlefront/Disney infinity/Old lucasarts games/ PS2 Star wars classics.

With EA i don't think the global consequences matter because of their tight relationship with Microsoft, Microsoft will get Titanfall, will get Mass Effect, and Sony will get the ones Microsoft don't want from EA.
 
W

watdaeff4

Member
Conduit said:
But it is, isn't it? I clearly said at retail. And also i didn't find any Xbone numbers with bundles.

I only found retail numbers : PS4 version of Fallout 4 1.91 mil, Xbone 1.75 mil. If you have numbers with bundles, please provide it.
Click to expand...


Here is just one post from The Nov. Thread - do the math - it barely sold more including bundles on XB1:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=189119999&postcount=4949

According to this there were 158K FO4 bundles sold in November alone, so as long as it sold at least 2K bundles in December (lol, we know it did), it sold higher on XB1.

EDIT to add a specific post that says 158K posts were sold in November alone as I have a feeling that could be a contention point: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=189120131&postcount=4951

I also found this post in that thread which was ironic as it shows there is some serious amnesia or console-warring going on due to selective memory
and considering the source.......
:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=189138569&postcount=5083
 
R

Rymuth

Member
AnthonypUK said:
Anything Star Wars will go to Sony, Disney handles Star Wars marketing and they're tight with Sony - See Battlefront/Disney infinity/Old lucasarts games/ PS2 Star wars classics.

With EA i don't think the global consequences matter because of their tight relationship with Microsoft, Microsoft will get Titanfall, will get Mass Effect, and Sony will get the ones Microsoft don't want from EA.
Click to expand...
This is very true.

It was odd seeing Battlefront getting name dropped when it has more to do with Adam Boyes and all he's done to bring Sony/Disney together.

EA is still tight with MS. I don't believe we'll see another Garden Warfare exclusivity window situation but MS will get dibs on the marketing.
 
S

stryke

Member
Kysen said:
You do know Azure is platform agnostic right? MS wants as many people as possible using the service.
Click to expand...

Yes I'm fully aware of that. It's not only about what MS wants. It's also about what's economical for the developers and Respawn were vocal about costs. I don't know the intracacies of their arrangement, only that Respawn says MS has made it affordable for them and that use of Azure is free during development. I doubt that applies to PS4 development. Do they pay up the more standard rate? If so, how does it compare to others? Or EA maybe helps them out by using whatever they've got going with Battlefront. In the end, it may very well be best to stick with Azure to maintain one infrastructure rather than two different ones.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
AnthonypUK said:
Anything Star Wars will go to Sony, Disney handles Star Wars marketing and they're tight with Sony - See Battlefront/Disney infinity/Old lucasarts games/ PS2 Star wars classics.

With EA i don't think the global consequences matter because of their tight relationship with Microsoft, Microsoft will get Titanfall, will get Mass Effect, and Sony will get the ones Microsoft don't want from EA.
Click to expand...
Friendship has it's limits
 
A

AnthonypUK

Member
slavesnyder said:
Friendship has it's limits
Click to expand...

Maybe, the main one i look at for EA is Fifa, its a global audience, huge in mainland Europe and ROW, Sony are 3 -1 to 8-1 outselling in those areas, yet Microsoft gets the Fifa marketing/bundling/exclusive content every year.

Until that one changes to align marketing with user base/audience I'm not sure where that limit is, As long as Peter Moore is there i think MS gets all the biggies.
 
N

Nightengale

Member
There's nothing bad about a partnership with the platform with the smaller install base so long as you're not actively sabotaging the release of the game on the bigger install base.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Slim $299 is like the easiest move MS can do this E3.

Drop that 500GB model, have the slim be 1TB, and ditch all these bundles that are out now.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
If Microsoft release a slim model with an official $249 pricedrop, it's gonna sell better than last year.

If Microsoft release a slim model with an official $299 and some promotion for $249, it's gonna be flat YOY.

If Microsoft not release a slim model, but make a $299 official pricedrop, it's gonna be down YOY... by a good margin.

If Microsoft not make a pricedrop or a slim model, not only it won't even close the 2015 numbers, but will sell even less than in 2014.
 
joecanada

joecanada

Member
so basically , despite the contradicting opinions and some data variations, Xbox version of Fallout 4 barely outsold ps4 even with a marketing deal. However don't forget there are less Xbox's out there as well, so relatively speaking , the marketing deal may have worked as some other AAA games have shown more of a 60/40 split I believe? Ubisoft showed a pretty heavy marketshare for ps4.....

.....however countering that it is also important how much money xbox spent to barely outsell ps4 with these games.... pretty tough sell there money wise. My fear is xbox will eventually settle into "coasting along" just like the 360 did at the end of last gen.... in fact I may never get an xbox this gen, but part of that is due to pc releases of course too.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
Ryng_tolu said:
If Microsoft release a slim model with an official $249 pricedrop, it's gonna sell better than last year.

If Microsoft release a slim model with an official $299 and some promotion for $249, it's gonna be flat YOY.

If Microsoft not release a slim model, but make a $299 official pricedrop, it's gonna be down YOY... by a good margin.

If Microsoft not make a pricedrop or a slim model, not only it won't even close the 2015 numbers, but will sell even less than in 2014.
Click to expand...
Given that Sony is likely to officially drop to $299, even if the XB1 slim would get a boost in sales, it would imo be very temporary and drop right back. Even with a slim at $299, I predict XB1 down yoy big time.
$249 would be a coup and likely to be flat or up yoy, but I don't see that happening this year, outside of a short period of time around BF imo.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Elandyll said:
Given that Sony is likely to officially drop to $299, even if the XB1 slim would get a boost, it would imo be very temporary and drop right back. Even with a slim at $299, I predict XB1 down yoy big time.
$249 would be a coup and likely to be flat or up yoy, but I don't see that happen8ng this year, outside of a short period of time around BF imo.
Click to expand...

yeah, this is what i was thinking, a slim model between September and November (maybe October with Gears of War, who know), for $299, and some retailer promotion for $249.

And i bet in XB1 a bit down YOY, but not by much. Should be flat this holidays, maybe even a bit up, but way down in the others month of the year.

That 187,000 in April and 297,000 in June are gonna make a BIG difference to fix, only those two months should easy make a >100K gap 2015 VS 2016, and there are the others months before September, of course.

Conduit said:
Nov. and Dec. and yearly NPD said Fallout 4 PS4>Xbone at retail. Didn't find any info how many F4 Xbone bundles were sold.
Click to expand...

Fallout 4 bundle sold 158,000 in November.

November sales
Fallout 4 (XBO) – 1,274,000 ( 1,116,000 Withouth bundle)
Fallout 4 (PS4) – 1,264,000

In December we don't know bundle sales, but Fallout 4 did better on XBO only at retail, so at least for 2015, is pretty much confirmed Fallout 4 (XBO) > Fallout 4 (PS4)
 
B

Blanquito

Member
I don't know, do you think Sony will drop the price so soon since they're actually up YoY in sales? That doesn't seem like a strategy Sony will adopt... but things can change between now and E3
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Blanquito said:
I don't know, do you think Sony will drop the price so soon since they're actually up YoY in sales? That doesn't seem like a strategy Sony will adopt... but things can change between now and E3
Click to expand...
I think so, they have to prepare for VR.
Pricedrop at E3 would be reasonable.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Blanquito said:
I don't know, do you think Sony will drop the price so soon since they're actually up YoY in sales? That doesn't seem like a strategy Sony will adopt... but things can change between now and E3
Click to expand...

$299 this holiday could happen. They will ride on that no matter when it happens, but if they are going to have a 4K device, they will make the HD PS4 look attractive.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
CosmicQueso said:
Or they'll just sell through existing PS4 models and make the 4K the new base SKU.
Click to expand...

And have a price raise of $50-$150? Now that would be some shit.

I'd think the PS4 would be for those content with HD TV's and the PS4K would be to push 4K adoption. Abandoning the HD base would be extremely risky.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
CosmicQueso said:
Or they'll just sell through existing PS4 models and make the 4K the new base SKU.
Click to expand...
?
Facing either an increase in BoM for the same price (hence drop in margins), or a price increase right before the Holidays?

That ... I would call unlikely (with what we "know" so far of the PS4K)
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
u0HX28I.jpg
 
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