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May 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 7th

M

Mass Effect

Member
Darth Smurf X said:
All this talk about Xbox Sticks... can someone explain to me why someone would buy one of those? As in, what would it do for a non-Xbox One owner? What would it do for an Xbox One owner? Would it interest a PS4 owner in any way, shape or form? I'm just wondering why this would be a big thing and why it would be announced at a gaming event. I'm clearly missing something.
Click to expand...

Probably to compete with the Chromecast and Fire TV Stick. Probably just to get people invested in the Xbox ecosystem or for those who already are. Remember, MS does have its own Xbox Music/Video/whatever services just like Google, Amazon, and Apple do, so there are probably people who've bought movies and albums or whatnot from the Xbox services. A stick like that goes along with them trying to create that ecosystem they want people a part of, kind of like people who have Apple or Google everything.

It would probably be announced briefly at E3 because 1.) E3 gets a lot of press, and 2.) they can show it to their hardcore Xbox fans who are probably invested into the MS ecosystem.

I don't think it will be a big thing for most, but it might for the MS superfans, however many there may be.
 
A

AmaterasuOni

Banned
Mass Effect said:
Probably to compete with the Chromecast and Fire TV Stick. Probably just to get people invested in the Xbox ecosystem or for those who already are. Remember, MS does have its own Xbox Music/Video/whatever services just like Google, Amazon, and Apple do, so there are probably people who've bought movies and albums or whatnot from the Xbox services. A stick like that goes along with them trying to create that ecosystem they want people a part of, kind of like people who have Apple or Google everything.

It would probably be announced briefly at E3 because 1.) E3 gets a lot of press, and 2.) they can show it to their hardcore Xbox fans who are probably invested into the MS ecosystem.

I don't think it will be a big thing for most, but it might for the MS superfans, however many there may be.
Click to expand...

So it's like the PSTV? That'll go well. :)
 
DC1

DC1

Member
Abdiel said:
Uh...

You know...

That's a very good question. And a distinct maybe.

I can't begin to tell you how Shitty the tomb raider and division bundles were. I mean, more than I did on their respective months.

Also, welfare, Doom seems to be kind of doing like what Ratchet food, but with a better first impression. Good word of mouth
Click to expand...
Just jumping in but.... is this your poor impression of the glorious 'C-Butt' without anonymity?
 
DC1

DC1

Member
noobie said:
Can i make the Boldest prediction

No Company (MS, Sony, Nintendo) is going to share numbers with us. :p
Click to expand...
I'll take you up on that Noob 😀.
Sony will respond.

I raise you a broken, unimpressed, medium sized french fry (once tasted but not bit'n).
 
A

AmaterasuOni

Banned
DC1 said:
I'll take you up on that Noob 😀.
Sony will respond.

I raise you a broken, unimpressed, medium sized french fry (once tasted but not bit'n).
Click to expand...

Yeah, I think Sony will show their numbers because of UC4 sales which are probably more than decent.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
slavesnyder said:
Set4O7w.jpg

Please save.
Click to expand...

Amazing avatar, i think this is surely one of the option for you for when Splatoon 2 will crush, destroying, fuck up and eat alive Zelda on NX. :)
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Mass Effect said:
Probably to compete with the Chromecast and Fire TV Stick. Probably just to get people invested in the Xbox ecosystem or for those who already are. Remember, MS does have its own Xbox Music/Video/whatever services just like Google, Amazon, and Apple do, so there are probably people who've bought movies and albums or whatnot from the Xbox services. A stick like that goes along with them trying to create that ecosystem they want people a part of, kind of like people who have Apple or Google everything.
Click to expand...
I think this move is something MS has to try. They are lttp as so often (smartphones, Mp3players, gaming consoles, tablets etc.), but having Windows installed on next to every computer out there gives them at least one strategic advantage. Problems might be:
  • How can they make the service work at least as good, comfortable and rich in content as amazon, google or apple
  • What can they offer what the others don't have? (and what consumers actually want)
  • How can they bully the others at least a bit? (it was so much easier in the good old days. Winning the race of the deepest pocket might be difficult against google)
  • How can they appear cool? (That might be the only reason they keep the xbox brand alive)
Mass Effect said:
It would probably be announced briefly at E3 because 1.) E3 gets a lot of press, and 2.) they can show it to their hardcore Xbox fans who are probably invested into the MS ecosystem.

I don't think it will be a big thing for most, but it might for the MS superfans, however many there may be.
Click to expand...
This will really be interesting. MS has a conference on the biggest gaming show on the planet. Everyone will be watching. Press, stakeholders, business partners and gamers.
Getting their message about the fabulous WinWorld spread on such a scene in all fascinating details is very, very tempting.
Problem: if they talk about this stuff too long, maybe more than 5 minutes (like sony's Powers segment) it might piss off gamers. Do they care?
Bonus: this stuff, if it's not as fascinating as lightning in a bottle, needs a good, charming presenter. Let's see who will be the lucky one.
 
D

donny2112

Member
AmaterasuOni said:
Yeah, I think Sony will show their numbers because of UC4 sales which are probably more than decent.
Click to expand...

At most, it'll be worldwide numbers. Sony hasn't purposefully shared real NPD numbers in many years. They know if they start when times are good, then they'll be suspect if times are bad. Better to consistently say nothing, than to be transparent like that.
 
O

Omnistalgic

Member
CosmicQueso said:
It's called a "Stick" because it's what they hope happens when they throw this and all the other crazy ideas at the wall.
Click to expand...
lol...Was just coming to say the same thing. None of these devices from MS sound exciting to me, particularly since I’m not already in the camp and a fan looking to be impressed. All of them sound like “me-too” devices, and a more powerful X1 is exciting talk on forums, but releasing next year when the PS4 user base will be like 70+million or something, like who’s going to care unless it’s the graphical equivalent of playing PS1 Tomb Raider and then N64 Mario! I mean, it has to be a generational leap, something I don’t see happening in that timespan. I dunno, maybe I just got my Sony/Nintendo blinders on, but MS is doing a lot of catch up moves. At least NX is seemingly going in a different direction where handheld will likely still play an important role.

- VR, it’s tech that’s not ready yet MS is all about AR. "let’s cover all our bases!" Now Oculus rift comes with a X1 controller and rumors are VR games are going to work on X1 Scorpion, just releasing a year after PSVR presumably
- A slim X1, a mini, an X2, and a new controller, let’s hit all price-points and “cover all our bases!" But there’s already a bunch of Roku, Apple TV’s and Fire sticks already competing fiercely for the set-top box, not to mention people are playing a ton of games on mobile devices.
- Everything on X1 is basically going to PC as well, don’t know whether this is good or bad for Xbox brand.

I guess I’m kinda looking forward to their conference too, but it really feels like they are just all over the place.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
slavesnyder said:
I think this move is something MS has to try. They are lttp as so often (smartphones, Mp3players, gaming consoles, tablets etc.), but having Windows installed on next to every computer out there gives them at least one strategic advantage. Problems might be:
  • How can they make the service work at least as good, comfortable and rich in content as amazon, google or apple
  • What can they offer what the others don't have? (and what consumers actually want)
  • How can they bully the others at least a bit? (it was so much easier in the good old days. Winning the race of the deepest pocket might be difficult against google)
  • How can they appear cool? (That might be the only reason they keep the xbox brand alive)

This will really be interesting. MS has a conference on the biggest gaming show on the planet. Everyone will be watching. Press, stakeholders, business partners and gamers.
Getting their message about the fabulous WinWorld spread on such a scene in all fascinating details is very, very tempting.
Problem: if they talk about this stuff too long, maybe more than 5 minutes (like sony's Powers segment) it might piss off gamers. Do they care?
Bonus: this stuff, if it's not as fascinating as lightning in a bottle, needs a good, charming presenter. Let's see who will be the lucky one.
Click to expand...
But doesn't all Sony have to do to render their "move" (pun intended) obsolete is to open PS Vue, , Remote Play, PS Now and the PS Store (Video/ smaller games) to a large portion of Android devices and IOS (which is obviously already on the way)?

That kind of positionning is -way- lttp, which is what surprised me when the new devices were leaked.

This being said, as a competitor, I guess better to have the option than.. not
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
donny2112 said:
At most, it'll be worldwide numbers. Sony hasn't purposefully shared real NPD numbers in many years. They know if they start when times are good, then they'll be suspect if times are bad. Better to consistently say nothing, than to be transparent like that.
Click to expand...
As if they care about that. NPD PR messages aren't made for us to doublecheck if there is a consistency in certain info given. It's just bite-sized textwork fed to the press for the purpose of being picked up and spread on the media, in best case unquestioned and unlabeled.
If they don't release numbers the source material just isn't bulletproof enough. The next month it might be completely different.
I really was astonished Sony didn't even give a short note being best-selling console. Would at least have resulted in some short, positive media feedback. Lost opportunity.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
AMD said there were closer to 60 million (~58-59m) consoles shipped at the end of 2015, and if this was as of the end of March, at least 2.3m PS4's that were shipped in Q1, so that would be 60m shipped. Even just assuming XB1 shipped nothing, AMD would see 60 million consoles at the end of March. This number increases even more past 60m including XB1 shipments.

Looks like it's rounding and not new information. Is there any clarification on that part?
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Welfare said:
AMD said there were closer to 60 million (~58-59m) consoles shipped at the end of 2015, and if this was as of the end of March, at least 2.3m PS4's that were shipped in Q1, so that would be 60m shipped. Even just assuming XB1 shipped nothing, AMD would see 60 million consoles at the end of March. This number increases even more past 60m including XB1 shipments.

Looks like it's rounding and not new information. Is there any clarification on that part?
Click to expand...
Not that I'm aware of. However, I think it's fair to say it proves my point that companies besides Sony and Microsoft aren't obligated to give accurate estimations. The bare minimum for an accurate sold through estimation of both combined would be around 59 million. The fact that AMD didn't say "over 60 million" could imply that the XB1 hasn't crossed 20 million. Also, I doubt this was as of the end of March. Like I said, this was shown last than 24 hours ago. Surely AMD, being the ones who provide the APU's in these consoles have more up to date information than that?
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Javin98 said:
Not that I'm aware of. However, I think it's fair to say it proves my point that companies besides Sony and Microsoft aren't obligated to give accurate estimations. The bare minimum for an accurate sold through estimation of both combined would be around 59 million. The fact that AMD didn't say "over 60 million" could imply that the XB1 hasn't crossed 20 million. Also, I doubt this was as of the end of March. Like I said, this was shown last than 24 hours ago. Surely AMD, being the ones who provide the APU's in these consoles have more up to date information than that?
Click to expand...

Unless I missed something, AMD have only reported on shipped numbers, not sold through, and at this point, as in recently, it's impossible for there not to be over 60m shipped consoles.
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Welfare said:
Unless I missed something, AMD have only reported on shipped numbers, not sold through, and at this point, as in recently, it's impossible for there not to be over 60m shipped consoles.
Click to expand...
Indeed, which is why I automatically assumed these were sold through numbers. Shipments would have exceeded 60 million months ago. I still find the usage of "over 50 million" pretty odd regardless. "Over 55 million" would be much closer.
 
P

pharmboy044

Member
So Uncharted 4 is still in the top 5 of Amazon bestseller hourly rating even after it being out for more than 3 weeks. Pretty good legs?
 
O

OfTheOverflow

Member
Hey guys, dumb question but I don't know anywhere to ask:

Is there any site or tool I can use to track past aggregated software sales for Nintendo hardware?

Specifically, I'm trying to determine if there was any sales dip, even if minor, during the period where Nintendo first started taking full ad revenue from YouTubers and they vowed to not cover Nintendo games?

EDIT: Nevermind, I guess ******** will have to do. Thanks anyway.
 
D

donny2112

Member
OfTheOverflow said:
Is there any site or tool I can use to track past aggregated software sales for Nintendo hardware?
Click to expand...

Use the quarterly reports to get revenue. No, there wasn't a drop due to Youtube stuff. If there was a drop, it was due to something else. Youtube backlash on a questionable policy is not going to move the needle on sales for a company. Neither will the localization backlash from more recent games. It's just not that important in the big picture.
 
3

3rdamention

Member
RexNovis said:
That seems like a really tricky thing to sell their audience. It'd be incredibly interesting to watch though. I was saying before this whole Scorpio stuff came out how I was actually most interested in what MS does at E3 since it seems like a pivotal moment for them with all of their new initiatives and their shifts in focus towards Windows 10 and UWP. Recent news only cements this even more so in my opinion. It's definitely the conference I find myself the most curious about this year.
Click to expand...

Fat4all said:
It almost makes me wonder if they are gonna try and go the whole hog with the Xbox One approach of a set-top family box, while,trying to gain the major console gamers with Scorpio. The only massive issue I can see is the cost of the Scorpio (well, and the marketing approach of the "mini" or whatever t ends up being).

But they can't just right back into marketing it for families and TV TV TV just yet, the Scorpio is still over a year away.

This E3 is gonna be weird.
Click to expand...


I said several weeks back that I am more anticipating Microsoft's messaging than the actual hardware specs and/or features of new hardware they are going to reveal.

If they are really going to have an Xbox TV/Xbox Stick (aren't these 2 separate things based on the leak?), an Xbox One, an Xbox Slim and an Xbox Scorpio, I want to see how they are going to get the message out about how these products fit with their road map. How will they convince people that they need these?

That is what is going to be most interesting to me. I still am in the camp that we dont hear a thing about Scorpio. It is funny how big this whole Scorpio thing has gotten on twitter with some of the die hards, when I feel it will never get mentioned at E3. There is no way Microsoft will talk about a new, better console, while still trying to sell a new, cheaper console (Slim). At least, not at this E3, in my opinion.
 
B

blakep267

Member
If the stick allows me to stream games from my Xbox that would be a day one buy for me. Since my Xbox is in my bedroom and I have various other rooms that is like to play in. Plus the app stuff would be just a bonus
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
3rdamention said:
I said several weeks back that I am more anticipating Microsoft's messaging than the actual hardware specs and/or features of new hardware they are going to reveal. If they are really going to have an Xbox TV/Xbox Stick (aren't these 2 separate things based on the leak?), an Xbox One, an Xbox Slim and an Xbox Scorpio, I want to see how they are going to get the message out about how these products fit with their road map. How will they convince people that they need these?
Click to expand...
Don't worry. We know how botched the original XboxOne announcement was. But now Microsoft has changed, they say.
Presenting NFL sticks, TVTV boxes and multimedia experience ecosystems is exactly what E3 is made for. You might even hear some people shouting wooohooo and yeah in the audience.

3rdamention said:
That is what is going to be most interesting to me. I still am in the camp that we dont hear a thing about Scorpio. It is funny how big this whole Scorpio thing has gotten on twitter with some of the die hards, when I feel it will never get mentioned at E3. There is no way Microsoft will talk about a new, better console, while still trying to sell a new, cheaper console (Slim). At least, not at this E3, in my opinion.
Click to expand...
They are not to envy. Hardware-wise both companies might present a slim. That's a tie (and the best MS could hope for).
Unfortunately Sony has a futuristic VR gadget 3D cyber helmet on top (that has at least remotedly something to do with gaming). And MS has an USB stick.
If EA is show and tell, this is a sock puppet compared to a robot drone with flamethrowers.

They could up this by throwing in the Scorpio, but if release is really more than a year away it would make no sense and just kill excitement for the available product.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Bitch Pudding said:
With 7mn, it's likely it sold more units on PS4 alone than UC4, isn't it?
Click to expand...

REAL rough math...

7m WW generally would mean somewhere in the range of 3.5m for North America and then around 3.0m or so US.

Then you take a stab at platform splits. No idea. But I think a fair assumption would be something like 50% PC, 27% PS4, 23% Xone?

Then stab at Digital share. 95%+ Digital on PC, let's assume 30% for PS4 and Xone.

Do all that, you get to US physical of somewhere around 570k PS4 and 480k Xbone One?

Of course, the platform split estimates above could be really, really wrong.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
CosmicQueso said:
REAL rough math...

7m WW generally would mean somewhere in the range of 3.5m for North America and then around 3.0m or so US.

Then you take a stab at platform splits. No idea. But I think a fair assumption would be something like 50% PC, 27% PS4, 23% Xone?

Then stab at Digital share. 95%+ Digital on PC, let's assume 30% for PS4 and Xone.

Do all that, you get to US physical of somewhere around 570k PS4 and 480k Xbone One?

Of course, the platform split estimates above could be really, really wrong.
Click to expand...

Digital on PS4/XBO for this game is most likely at retail level, so something like 50%.

I would love to see insane NPD numbers (+1million) but i just can't see this happen...
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
CosmicQueso said:
What evidence do we have of this? That's a very bold assumption to make.
Click to expand...

EA recently said that the actual digital ratio for PS4/XBO is now about 25% or more.

OverWatch is easy a lot more than that, all times Sony/MS promuoved it digitally. Also, i'm not that guy of all my friends bought it digitally, but in this case... :p

Maybe 50% is too much, but i think it's easy over 40%.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
CosmicQueso said:
REAL rough math...

7m WW generally would mean somewhere in the range of 3.5m for North America and then around 3.0m or so US.

Then you take a stab at platform splits. No idea. But I think a fair assumption would be something like 50% PC, 27% PS4, 23% Xone?

Then stab at Digital share. 95%+ Digital on PC, let's assume 30% for PS4 and Xone.

Do all that, you get to US physical of somewhere around 570k PS4 and 480k Xbone One?

Of course, the platform split estimates above could be really, really wrong.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure how similar the markets are overall, but reverse engineering the UK, we got (for first weeks):

[PS4] UNCHARTED 4: A THIEF'S END - 192,000
[Week 19, 2016] DOOM (BETHESDA SOFTWORKS) ~ 62,000 / NEW
Overwatch: 56,000 to 74,000

It's possible it's a very, very PC skewed game. 19% of that number was even PC retail in the UK. Though, it's also possible it's very digital heavy on consoles.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
I remember having read Overwatch was a huge success in Korea, maybe in other regions, too. Is it possible that US share is lower than usual, too?
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
slavesnyder said:
I remember having read Overwatch was a huge success in Korea, maybe in other regions, too. Is it possible that US share is lower than usual, too?
Click to expand...

Sure.

So, assuming Ryng's digital assumption, and then assuming that US is, what, 15% less in share?

Then 7m WW gets you to 2m units US.

Assume same 50-27-23 PC-PS4-Xone split takes you to 1m-0.54m-0.46m

95% PC Digital, 50% Console Digital then takes Packaged sales to 50k PC, 270k PS4 and 230k Xbox One. Call that the low range?

Big ranges because of all the unknowns. The whole origin of the question was if UC4 on PS4 would get beat by OW PS4 in NPD and it's pretty clear that the answer to that question is no.
 
P

PanicFreak

Member
Bitch Pudding said:
With 7mn, it's likely it sold more units on PS4 alone than UC4, isn't it?
Click to expand...

Probably not. I would estimate that half or more of the sales were on the PC. A 50/50 split would leave a pool of 3.5 million for the Xbox One and PS4 combined. If you estimate a 2:1 split WW, that would give you about 2.33 million sales on the PS4.
 
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