slavesnyder
Member
Does 7m players mean 7m copies/codes sold?
Just asking.
Just asking.
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May 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 7th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
No, but it's generally not going to be tremendously off.
There's things like PC bangs in China and Korea (though Blizzard is charging those places a lot per copy or taking a revenue share to emulate sales) and you can hand your console copy around to your friends if you each want to play the game solo.
If there were used copies in the first week or siblings with different gamertag accounts that could end up with multiple players too.
Jarod McChicken
Member
I think that "million of players" data is really confusing and I would not say suddenly Overwatch > Uncharted 4 just because of this.
Rocket League has seen 15 million players... for 5 million copies sold. And no, one month of PS+ is not enough to explain that 10 millions difference. So from one way or another, there are a lot of reasons why there is an important gap between "millions of players" and "millions of units sold".
I would gladly have Abdiel and other retailGAF insight about how Overwatch is doing in stores though, the game is definitly solid #2 next NPD. #1 would surprise me but since even the PC version looks strong in retail, it's not impossible.
Rocket League has seen 15 million players... for 5 million copies sold. And no, one month of PS+ is not enough to explain that 10 millions difference. So from one way or another, there are a lot of reasons why there is an important gap between "millions of players" and "millions of units sold".
I would gladly have Abdiel and other retailGAF insight about how Overwatch is doing in stores though, the game is definitly solid #2 next NPD. #1 would surprise me but since even the PC version looks strong in retail, it's not impossible.
slavesnyder
Member
Thanks. Just found the same question in the thread. I should take a step outside NPD threads more often...
CosmicQueso
Member
A vast majority of that difference could indeed be accounted for by this.
Forgot about this too.
demigod
Member
I regret not adding Rocket League to my download list.
Wow at the 7 million Overwatch users. Incredible stuff. The even more impressive thing is how well it's been doing in South Korea. It's basically taken their esports steaming scene by storm falling short of League of Legends by only 8% of active streams and 13% of viewership. Keep in mind League of Legends has been the unrivaled number 1 game in the country for over 4 years now so the fact that a brand new title is within spitting distance is just truly incredible.
Yea nah as we've discussed in this thread before it's likely to be very heavily digital showed thanks to PC being the most popular platform by a pretty large margin.
You're right it would be a fun one to watch the reaction too though.
spatenfloot
Member
Who cares how many copies it sold? We need to know the MAUs.
Primethius
Banned
Thats actually pretty incredible.
But I wonder how long it'll last. League numbers stay so impressive due to how big of a focus Riot puts on it. Wonder if Blizzard is willing to put a similar level of massive investment behind it.
Semi-random thought, what are the odds we get other Blizzard games on consoles eventually? Maybe sommit like Hearthstone or Heroes of the Storm? I'm kinda surprised neither has been announced for home consoles yet, they'd probably do amazing in the f2p markets of both consoles.
Yep it will no doubt hinge on the level of long term support they produce for the game so we shall see but one thing is for sure those numbers are absolutely unprecedented in South Korea. Nothing released in the last 4 years even comes remotely close to them.
I keep expecting them to announce Hearthstone for consoles. It makes perfect sense. Heroes of The Storm would require a lot of work in order to adjust for the different control schemes so o don't think we'd see that one.
The big one, of course, is WoW and with the success of various MMOs on consoles today o think it would make a lot of sense but it would require a lot of reworking and redesigning around the constraints of a controller unless they limit it to keyboard mouse only on console as well which I doubt platform manufacturers would allow.
If you'll allow to me paraphrase - don't read into it too much. If it's still ripping up the numbers in a few months that is a really healthy sign for the game. But this is a one week old game from a massively popular developer with a huge active marketing campaign.
Primethius
Banned
That's certainly a likely possibility. One can only hope that Blizzard, with there already extensive knowledge due to the original StarCraft seize the opportunity.
I wouldn't mind a third game to join the big league ranks of League and Dota.
Nightengale
Member
It's not going to be a large number , but the UC4 bundle preorder should culminate for the month.
Primethius
Banned
[3DS] 62K
[PS4] 167K
[WIU] 30K
[XB1] 124K
Predictions:
-UC4 sells 850k retail (no bundles).
-Overwatch is sub-400k, PS4 leads 60/40
-Doom outsells Overwatch but still lands around <500k, also PS4 leading 60/40
[PS4] 167K
[WIU] 30K
[XB1] 124K
Predictions:
-UC4 sells 850k retail (no bundles).
-Overwatch is sub-400k, PS4 leads 60/40
-Doom outsells Overwatch but still lands around <500k, also PS4 leading 60/40
Yea but I reckon it was called limited for a reason. I don't get the impression too many were made so I'm doubtful it would have much of an impact on May's HW figures. I'm only expecting to see modest single digit YoY growth personally.
It's a Blizzard game, will be supported a long time.
Views will start to plateau but I don't even think we have hit peak viewership yet either. Once the competitive mode comes out in July this should create a boost for streaming views.
I think Doom and Overwatch are gonna be close but I the edge the edge to Overwatch even with the heavy digital split. I just think it's going to be massive enough that the retail portion will still exceed that of Doom. But the opposite with high digital sales leading to Doom debuting with more retail sales is certainly feasible too. Its gonna be a fun one to watch unfold after all the speculation surrounding these games that's for sure.
Primethius
Banned
Well, Blizzard long time support is different then esports support. Truthfully, Blizzard is but a shell of what they were in that regard.
Riot probably pumps more money into the League esports side then the actual game development (heyo development hell replay feature). And it shows in the results.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
If you haven't noticed the same guy keeps making new accounts only to post in NPD threads and get banned. It must have happened at least 5 or 6 times by now. He'll be back under a new account.
unapersson
Member
Is the 7m not effectively MAU? We seem to be getting close to having an algorithm to calculate physical sales based on MAU ;-)
ethomaz
Banned
Well Limited means nothing like the Halo 5 Limited Edition being sold even today
But I guess around 50k U4 bundles is safe... high end 100k.
7m is WAU
MAU can be only shared after first month.
Nightengale
Member
Effective MAU rates are calculated over longer stretches of time because the key measure of MAU is [monthly] and [active]
How many active OW players will there still be 2-3 months from now is the effective MAU measure.
slavesnyder
Member
Console is limited, but we don't know by what number. At least it's a real special edition (different colour, ugly print), so there should be a stock's end.
In may it was Amazon # 76, that's not too bad.
So I give the optimistic bump in my PS4 prediction to the SE, collection preorders for several weeks already, to Uncharted itself and to generally good multiplat releases for a May with Doom and Overwatch.
Well Limited means nothing like the Halo 5 Limited Edition being sold even today
But I guess around 50k U4 bundles is safe... high end 100k.
Wow that is way more Limited Edition SKUs than what I'm expecting. I was thinking somewhere around 25-30k. I tend to think Limited is very literal this time as it's an actual special SKU similar to what we saw with the limited Taken King SKU.
Hmm so yea I guess mostly y'all just have a completely different estimation for the limited SKU than I do along with more HW sales potential from some of the multiplats.
Maybe Abdiel can shed some light on the stock figures to expect for it and that would help give us a better frame of reference for our predictions.
ethomaz
Banned
I don't remember TTK numbers but original Destiny LE was over 300k in US.
unapersson
Member
Well Limited means nothing like the Halo 5 Limited Edition being sold even today
But I guess around 50k U4 bundles is safe... high end 100k.
7m is WAU
MAU can be only shared after first month.
But I thought it was for the month of May ;-)
I was being a little tongue in cheek, was just surprised to see the usual sales suspects trying to calculate sales from that number. I thought we'd been through this sort of thing before with trying to calculate sales from numbers of users on a game's leaderboard. Still I guess it's only for an NPD estimate.
Wii U has sold 48,000 unit in April NPD 2014, and then 61,000 in May NPD 2014 thanks only 2 days of Mario Kart 8, which sold 415,000 unit first week. (a +27% boost).
Then it also sold 140,000 in June NPD 2014, aka about +130% MOM boost to May, or +192% compared to April.
For sells 220K PS4 need about the same boost Wii U got with Mario Kart, but Uncharted has 3 weeks not only one.
I can see this happening.
I doubt very seriously that Uncharted would have the hardware pull that a new Mario Kart has for Nintendo HW. I suppose it's possible but if imagine it'd sell more to the existing user base than push new HW sales especially given the prevalence of the Nathan Drake Collection as a pack in with so many PS4s this past holiday season.
slavesnyder
Member
I slowly edit and lower my estimate every day, step by step because I trust those experts.
And in the end it would possibly have gone wrong.
CosmicQueso
Member
Don't ever let me stray into OT again guys. Please.
Agreed. We broke the math down earlier. Shouldn't even be all that close.
Agreed. We broke the math down earlier. Shouldn't even be all that close.
PanicFreak
Member
Overwatch shouldn't have a much greater digital split for console than other games.
You've got bad neighbors anywhere. Some even file legal complaints for no good reason.
OT: I think Overwatch and Uncharted 4 aren't going to be that close. I think Overwatch is so diversified among platforms and digital, it will hurt NPD
Good analysis but it is worth noting that a large number of people were waiting for MK8 release before purchasing a WiiU and given the current PS4 sales figures I doubt there are many Uncharted fans who have yet to buy a PS4. I expect the UC4 bundle to be the bundle of choice for the month of May much like the BLOPS3 bundle last month.
gundamkyoukai
Member
OT is great they have some good debates sometimes.
Plus the comedy that comes with some of the threads .
I agree with this .
Over watch is doing great on PC and in other parts of the world .
Not gonna happen, the Uncharted bundle is too limited.
It will most likely sell way less than the Halo 5 bundle, which didn't even sold 100K.
Black Ops III bundle goona be the bigger PS4 bundle even this month.
EDIT: Also i agree that Uncharted won't boost PS4 as Mario Kart boosted Wii U, but Mario Kart first NPD (May) was only 2 days, Uncharted 4 will be 3 weeks... we'll see i guess.
If Overwatch esports catches on I don't think we will see the mistakes of StarCraft return. Might need a pessimistic view though until they prove otherwise.
I had no idea it was limited. It is readily available from what I have seen (Amazon, BestBuy, Walmart, Target etc). Plus they had a few deals on it early this month.
Seeing as PC is the main platform for the game and it was being sold for less money digitally I completely disagree. Digital split is gonna be big.
Welfare
Member
The problem with this is that there was no Mario Kart equivalent on the Wii U prior to launch. Also, the MK8 boost is helped by June. June naturally has a higher weekly average to May because finals are over/school's out in the US. In addition to that, there was a free game deal with that bundle that if you registered to Club Nintendo, you could download either Pikmin 3, New Super Mario Bros. U, The Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker HD, or Wii Party U.
May is already the slowest month in the year, and the Uncharted bundle is $399. That already severely limits a purchase compared to the BO3 bundle, and there is less of a chance for the PS4 to see such an uptick in sales because of the fact that potential new Uncharted fans would've picked the system up when TLOU:R and NDC were bundled.
Taken King SKU was basically a replacement sku. It sold ~49% of the total PS4 sales in September 2015 (<173k TTK bundles in 3 weeks vs >181k other bundles in 5)
With that though, is that it was a sku that took over other bundles while being marketed as limited while the Uncharted one looks to either not have much steam or is more limited. It is #77 on Amazon's monthly chart for May while TTK bundle was #9 in the September.
Though Mario Kart sold 415,000 unit first week... Uncharted will definitively sells over 1 million, maybe even 1.2 million. (i include digital for both)
Uncharted will have a more agressive launch, and like i said it will be sold for 3 weeks, not only one week... but i don't know, honestly i'm starting to have some doubt.
I think PS4 will definitively sell more than in April by at least 2 digit %.
If PS4 sells < 200K, that's much bad. This really mean PS4 has peaked.
Comparation times, which game will sell more lifetime in the USA?
Mario Kart 8 or Uncharted 4?
There are not precise numbers, but Mario Kart is well over 2 million withouth bundle or digital, and including both of them, numbers really change (could be well over 2.5 million).
Not to mention legs are still strong and is still bundled, it will most likely sells 3 million/3.5 million when all is well and done.
So will Uncharted beat it?
which game will sell more lifetime in the USA?Mario Kart 8 or Uncharted 4?
There are not precise numbers, but Mario Kart is well over 2 million withouth bundle or digital, and including both of them, numbers really change (could be well over 2.5 million).
Not to mention legs are still strong and is still bundled, it will most likely sells 3 million/3.5 million when all is well and done.
So will Uncharted beat it?