Support NeoGAF

[Lanrutcon]

I'm deeply interested in seeing what the next console generation is going to look like when it eventually (eventually) rolls around. Sony's change in strategy, MS's fire in their pants, chip shortages, GPU prices, etc. All of the events now are shaping an interesting future.

 

[Tiago Rodrigues]

I'm deeply interested in seeing what the next console generation is going to look like when it eventually (eventually) rolls around. Sony's change in strategy, MS's fire in their pants, chip shortages, GPU prices, etc. All of the events now are shaping an interesting future.

This isn't even about consoles anymore...the entire videogame sector is being affected by this. (and others)
I can't even count the number of people i know that want to upgrade their PCs and simply can't.

It honestly sucks...PS5 could be breaking all sorts of records and they have so many games in full development and their newest hardware will only hit 20M consoles sold by April probably.

People complain about cross-gen games but i believe no one wants to move away from that gen more than Sony. They simply can't do it right now.

 

[reksveks]

Can we go back to the topic now?

 

[cireza]

Can we go back to the topic now?

The new PS5 forecast is orders of magnitude lower than the original one.

 

[Fbh]

I'm not going to find a Ps5 for less than $1000 this year...am I?

 

[reksveks]

I'm not going to find a Ps5 for less than $1000 this year...am I?

Where are you? There are certain markets in the EU that do seem really starved. Apparently xbox outsold the ps5 in Spain either 2/3 weeks ago.

 

[MikeM]

Boggles my mind how nobody saw this one coming, Covid or not. You cannot ramp up chip production as quickly as demand is growing, it takes years. This would have happened sooner or later.

Hopefully this will actually lead to rethinking some designs for the future.

The beauty of just in time supply chain.

 

[Fbh]

Where are you? There are certain markets in the EU that do seem really starved. Apparently xbox outsold the ps5 in Spain either 2/3 weeks ago.

Oh should have mentioned, in Chile (South America).
The only next gen console you can get for MSRP here is the Series S. The Series X is usually in the $900+ range and the Ps5 is in the $1000+ range.

People are so desperate for Ps5's that they are even selling out quickly when they go "on sale" for like $900.

 

[akaFullmetal]

Well that sucks, chip shortage being a really bitch and manufactures for chips saying dand will not eased for years. Just crappy situation for everyone

 

[MasterCornholio]

That’s shitty. I’m sure Sony will survive though.

 

[DaGwaphics]

Series S looking more genius by the day. MS should give a raise to whoever initially pitched this idea. LOL

 

[Jayjayhd34]

If wolverine or spidey 2 go to ps4 I dont what I'll do.....

 

[MatrixReloaded101]

They are in a rough position because by the time they are able to start releasing more consoles the hype for the PS5 might die down dramatically.

I think we will be getting 2 more years at least of cross gen games.

 

[tommib]

If wolverine or spidey 2 go to ps4 I dont what I'll do.....

SlimySnake will go absolutely mental in a live account suicide but I can totally see that happening.

 

[CatLady]

Getting PS5 day-one was the smartest move. Let those "first batch has issues" enjoy their last gen and outdated PC's.

You speak the truth. I feel incredibly fortunate I was able to preorder a Series X.

It was hard as hell, I had 6 windows open to 6 different retailers and just kept hitting the refresh button. I was getting so frustrated I was ready to give up when I finally got one of my windows to go through to check out at the Microsoft store. It was a pain in the ass but it sure was worth it.

 

[yurinka]

It's insane that the most in demand console at this time is truly a victim of circumstance with the ongoing chip shortages that may last a very long time and potentially set it behind the competition until the shortages end. This generation is going to look completely different that it would have otherwise and publisher's will have to extend cross gen indefinitely.

MS and Nintendo are truly fortunate that the Series S and Switch are less resource hungry at the supply lines, but the Series X will also going to be a victim of a similar set of circumstances even though the Series S is helping it break Xbox sales records. What a bizarre timeline!

Sony Forced to Cut Its PS5 Sales Forecast By Millions of Units - IGN

Sony is expecting to sell fewer PlayStation 5 units in the current financial year than previously forecasted. The company slashed its forecasts by millions of units due to ongoing component shortages.

www.ign.com

I don't understand why companies from Japan, USA and Europe didn't start to build themselves these missing chips. Or even why China/Taiwan or whoever makes them don't open way more factories to build them.

What is the reason for the shortages, why can't they produce more? Is the manufacturing of these chips really the botttleneck and the issue could be fixed by adding more factories? Or are they lacking source materials so more mining is needed?

 

[TheInfamousKira]

Can we go back to the topic now?

I don't think you understand the magnitude of this discussion.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

I don't understand why companies from Japan, USA and Europe didn't start to build themselves these missing chips. Or even why China/Taiwan or whoever makes them don't open way more factories to build them.

What is the reason for the shortages, why can't they produce more? Is the manufacturing of these chips really the botttleneck and the issue could be fixed by adding more factories? Or are they lacking source materials so more mining is needed?

Because running and managing a fab plant is VERY fucking expensive. R&D costs are absurdly high as well.

 

[Draugoth]

Crazy, some guy eating a bat caused all this

We underestimate how powerful mother nature truly is.

 

[Mozza]

I'm not going to find a Ps5 for less than $1000 this year...am I?

It's a lot tougher in the U.S, was quite easy to pick up a bundle in the U.K before Christmas, even the re sellers on E-bay are available for only £40 to £60 more.

 

[MHubert]

Apparently Series S sells like hot cakes, and Riky thinks a lot of things are funny. I learn so much from gaf

 

[Plantoid]

Sony is set to open a new chip factory to help meet demand.

LoL? If was that simple they would've done it already, chip production demands cutting edge tech, not even M$ or apple have their own factories

 

[Mozza]

They are in a rough position because by the time they are able to start releasing more consoles the hype for the PS5 might die down dramatically.

I think we will be getting 2 more years at least of cross gen games.

The re sellers are one of the main factors in all of this, as Sony have still managed to produce ship a lot of consoles thus far, but this has led to loads of people buying them to make a profit on, this in itself drives up demand as the stock locator websites and social media trackers get people more desperate to get something that's hard to get hold off, based on the fear of never being able to get one.

Wonder how bad the situation would have been if E-bay had not allowed any sales of these new consoles on their site above retail price.

 

[fart town usa]

That might be your case, but you are posting on a videogame forum. XSS is a great casual console that allows way more people to enjoy the hobby. Microsoft did the right thing.

Right. There's alot of people, myself included, who can't even fully take advantage of what a base PS4 offers, lol. (I'm assuming a base PS4 can do HDR) I don't have a modern TV, just a Panasonic plasma that does 1080p. I'll probably be running my PS5 on that when I eventually get one.

XSS is a great console for people who want new games and aren't overly concerned about maximizing graphical capabilities.

 

[mckmas8808]

Crazy, some guy eating a bat caused all this

I wish we could go back in time and just beat that dude up before he ate the bat.

 

[Fbh]

It's a lot tougher in the U.S, was quite easy to pick up a bundle in the U.K before Christmas, even the re sellers on E-bay are available for only £40 to £60 more.

The biggest problem here is that retailers decided to just get ahead of scalpers and scalp the console themselves. So it's not like in other places where finding them in stock is hard, but when you do you can buy them for the regular place. Here finding them in stock is easy, it's just $1000 everywhere.

The only retailer that seems to respect the MSRP is Walmart, but they get stock maybe once every 3-4 months and it sells out in minutes.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

Seems we're on the worst possible timeline.

This doesn't just impact PS5/XBSX.

It also impacts the designs of the next-gen consoles that will start being designed this year or next. If there's no foreseeable resolution to these supply chain issues moving forward, we may be looking at ridiculously gimped tiny die sizes for the PS6/XSX2.

That would be fucking awful and set advancements in graphics and gameplay technology back 7 years.

 

[Lognor]

Damn. 22% reduction. That's huge.

While Microsoft clearly did not anticipate these supply issues at the point of making the decision to make a Series S, that was such a brilliant move on their part, even if by accident. Sony is really handicapped and cannot get more units out while Series S consoles are flying off the shelves. What a brilliant call!

 

[Mozza]

The biggest problem here is that retailers decided to just get ahead of scalpers and scalp the console themselves. So it's not like in other places where finding them in stock is hard, but when you do you can buy them for the regular place. Here finding them in stock is easy, it's just $1000 everywhere.

The only retailer that seems to respect the MSRP is Walmart, but they get stock maybe once every 3-4 months and it sells out in minutes.

It's wrong when retailers are profiteering, I mean bundles are o.k as this will deter re sellers a lot of the time, but straight up charging more then retail is not on.

 

[Haggard]

Series S looking more genius by the day. MS should give a raise to whoever initially pitched this idea. LOL

The console that people desire so little, that it`s barely supply constrained, even during these times?

The one that came up with the idea for the Series S should drop down to his knees and kiss the chinese`s ass thanking them for the wuhan virus.

 

[Warnen]

I choose to read into this that they will make up users on the PC side, I welcome day one God of War Ragnarok on PC

 

[Atrus]

There's likely well over 10 million PS5’s that would be insta-sold if stock was available.

Before launch, I expected to walk in and buy a PS5 or a bundle alongside Horizon Forbidden West’s release.

Now I’ll probably just buy the digital deluxe copy and wait for supply to improve.

 

[Helghan]

This isn't even about consoles anymore...the entire videogame sector is being affected by this. (and others)
I can't even count the number of people i know that want to upgrade their PCs and simply can't.

It honestly sucks...PS5 could be breaking all sorts of records and they have so many games in full development and their newest hardware will only hit 20M consoles sold by April probably.

People complain about cross-gen games but i believe no one wants to move away from that gen more than Sony. They simply can't do it right now.

Not sure, Sony has record breaking revenue and profit figures thanks to the Playstation division. Sure they would prefer more PS5's to be sold, but I don't think they want to move away from past-gen too quickly. Which I understand, the more money, the better their position in the market.

 

[GhostOfTsu]

Awful news! Hopefully Spider-Man 2 is cross-gen so more fans can play it and they delay God Of War Ragnarok in 2023. Let Horizon, GT7, Ghostwire and Forspoken shine. All the PS5s will get sold anyway and they're still making record profits

 

[Bo_Hazem]

You speak the truth. I feel incredibly fortunate I was able to preorder a Series X.

It was hard as hell, I had 6 windows open to 6 different retailers and just kept hitting the refresh button. I was getting so frustrated I was ready to give up when I finally got one of my windows to go through to check out at the Microsoft store. It was a pain in the ass but it sure was worth it.

Mine was pretty comfortable as had my name and phone number written down with guaranteed day one console. It was much organized over here.

 

[SteelCurtain 59]

The console that people desire so little, that it`s barely supply constrained, even during these times?

The one that came up with the idea for the Series S should drop down to his knees and kiss the chinese`s ass thanking them for the wuhan virus.

What did the Series S do to you that made you so bitter? The Series S is incredibly popular, and would be even without a chip shortage, it's a cheap console that can play next-gen games at a performance level that's acceptable for most people.

 

[Dr Bass]

The new PS5 forecast is orders of magnitude lower than the original one.

Wrong.

An order of magnitude is a factor of 10x. So if I have 100 dollars and I bet it on something and win 1000 dollars I've "increased my money by an order of magnitude."

For your statement to be correct, the outlook would have had to have dropped to 1.48 million, which isn't even close to what happened. Nice attempt on the negative rhetorical spin though. Unfortunately you just sorta reveled you had no idea what that phrase even means.

 

[Kagey K]

So with Sony shipping 2 mil this quarter what are we predicting for March 31 numbers?

I‘m thinking Sony 19, Xbox 15. (Based on current numbers being 17.3 and 12.8)

But if MS can produce more they can put a dent in that gap.

 

[ByWatterson]

It's crazy to think that, because it provided a LOWER-strength console that is easier to manufacture, the Series S, Microsoft was put in a position to focus MORE on next-gen.

Day-and-date with PC helps, too, but I really do expect to see more X|S-only first-party games than PS5-only first party games in the next 18 months.

 

[Dream-Knife]

I think this will have serious implications for the future of consoles and streaming. 26/27 is insane.

The re sellers are one of the main factors in all of this, as Sony have still managed to produce ship a lot of consoles thus far, but this has led to loads of people buying them to make a profit on, this in itself drives up demand as the stock locator websites and social media trackers get people more desperate to get something that's hard to get hold off, based on the fear of never being able to get one.

Wonder how bad the situation would have been if E-bay had not allowed any sales of these new consoles on their site above retail price.

People forget that ebay takes a huge cut. To break even on a PS5 on ebay, you would need to sell it for $553 with $20 shipping.

 

[skit_data]

So with Sony shipping 2 mil this quarter what are we predicting for March 31 numbers?

I‘m thinking Sony 19, Xbox 15. (Based on current numbers being 17.3 and 12.8)

But if MS can produce more they can put a dent in that gap.

The numbers are almost a whole month apart though, my guess is Xbox at roughly 14-14.5 million and PS5 19 million.

 

[Mozza]

I think this will have serious implications for the future of consoles and streaming. 26/27 is insane.

People forget that ebay takes a huge cut. To break even on a PS5 on ebay, you would need to sell it for $553 with $20 shipping.

No I do realize this, but I think it's just got to a point where both next generation consoles are a popular item to re sell, when I got my Series X it was only £40 above retail, so I did not see the point.

 

[Nezzeroth]

Maybe Sony should make a PS5 lite/S that's easier to manufacture.

TBH I think this is a good idea. The alternative is getting crossgen games for 3-5 more years at least. I’d rather they make a Series S equivalent so that at minimum developers can count on the SSD.

 

[Kagey K]

The numbers are almost a whole month apart though, my guess is Xbox at roughly 14-14.5 million and PS5 19 million.

They are both the numbers at Dec 31.

 

[skit_data]

They are both the numbers at Dec 31.

Source?
The guesstimates I’ve seen on the Xbox numbers have been from January 25th.

Edit: The 12.8 million, that is.

 

[MScarpa]

silly comment as a lot would of loved day one console but shortages made sure lots couldn't have one

If I could go back I would have waited on purchasing a PS5, I love Ratchet bu everything else is crossgen. Oh well

 

[Bo_Hazem]

https://www.gizmochina.com/2021/12/15/tsmc-top-10-customers-revealed-apple-accounts-for-quarter-of-revenue/

So... it seems Sony will still have to wait a lot for those new PS5 chipsets, as well as Microsoft.

It's a fucking Sony/TSMC factory ffs.

Sony begins funding TSMC's Japanese chip plant

Investment to reach $500m in joint venture with operations starting 2024

asia.nikkei.com

 

[laynelane]

Source?
The guesstimates I’ve seen on the Xbox numbers have been from January 25th.

Edit: The 12.8 million, that is.

This estimate is likely the source (see Tweet in OP):

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/xbox-may-have-outsold-playstation-in-last-quarter-oct-dec-2021.1629354/

 

[Kagey K]

The numbers are almost a whole month apart though, my guess is Xbox at roughly 14-14.5 million and PS5 19 million.

Searching for it I can see you’ve already tried this song and dance with someone else.



He’s talking about up to that quarterly report, not up until Jan 25, it’s posted that day because that’s the day the quarterly information came out.

There has been no sales data released beyond Dec 31, 2021.

Thats like saying Sony is at 17.3 now, because that’s when the tweets are posted. Everyone is obviously talking about last quarter end.

 

[skit_data]

This estimate is likely the source (see Tweet in OP):

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/xbox-may-have-outsold-playstation-in-last-quarter-oct-dec-2021.1629354/

Yes, posted on the 25th of January and saying ”to date”, so it’s the same one I referred to.