Yep, this is a safe bet. It's really not that much of a mystery. We can look at what AMD already has to see what is possible in the console space. The closet thing we have to what the
ceiling will be for a PS5 PRO (in raster at least) is the RX 7900M GPU. This is a cut down version of the Navi 31 7900 GRE card with 72 CUs and a TDP of 160W-180W (~200W with SmartShift). This lines up perfectly with what will be possible in a console and precedent already shows that Sony has been targeting the high end AMD mobile GPU of the day since the launch of the PS4 base (PS4 was virtually identical to a 7970M). The TFLOP rating on the 7900M is 38.5 as configured and the benchmarks puts it pretty much on par with a 7800XT (37.2 TFLOPS), as expected for PS5 Pro.
7900M Details and Benchmarks:
https://www.notebookcheck.net/AMD-Radeon-RX-7900M-GPU-Benchmarks-and-Specs.760883.0.html
Now the PS5 Pro is expected to only have 60CUs we know but will be clocked ~2.5Ghz or higher. The 7900M only has a boost clock up to 2.09Ghz. So in the typical Mark Cerny fashion of smaller but faster, a 60CU RDNA3 based card clocked at at least 2.5Ghz will have a theoretical performance that is a match for the 7900M (60CU 7800XT clocked at 2.4Ghz boost is 37TFLOPS). This is already a known entity for AMD and is suspiciously close to the rumored specs so I'd image that Sony would have used that as a baseline for what was feasible in the PS5 Pro. From there, the questions are around clock speeds, cooling, and customizations for the console application.
So to summarize, the performance of this card is very close to a 7800XT/3080/4070. For raster, I would expect this to be the
ceiling of a PS5 Pro from a GPU perspective. With the efficiency improvements and console closed box optimizations, real world we could see perf reach up to 7900GRE/3090 similar to how PS5 console optimized games run closer to a 3060TI or even a 3070 in the best cases. But if the rumors are true, then it's the RT perf that will see the biggest leap. With some RDNA 4 goodness including a BVH traversal HW unit and other Sony specific optimizations, the RT perf could be at least on par with a 7900XT (if not higher). That would be pretty compelling in a console.
Top that off with the dream of some form of native ML based SR/Frame Gen and we have a box that can bring most PS5 games up to a 4K/60fps target with clean IQ and more stable perf than the what the base PS5 does today. 4K/120 and 8K/60 (via reconstruction) wouldn't be impossible in some titles either. We'll just have to see...I'll keep my ears open at GDC next week