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June 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 15th

D

donny2112

Member
Road said:
(Although, to be honest, I don't know how donny2112 handles the order when people put the same sales for multiple systems.)
Click to expand...

They share a rank, which would be great for the bonus if the sales were actually tied that month! It's just that that basically never happens. :p
 
I

InsuRn

Member
My first time on NPD predictions ! Hope I do well:

[PS4] 175K
[XB1] 120K
[WIU] 75K
[360] 56K
[PS3] 50K
[3DS] 86K
[PSV] 30K
 
M

mrklaw

MrArseFace
Bgamer90 said:
Think there's a good possibility for that to be the case up until January.

Like I said before, the system is going to get a boost during November and December. Pretty inevitable. June to October is "maybe" but I wouldn't be surprised to see sales increase each month due to the new SKU on top of more games coming out (exclusive and multiplatform). Only possible months that I can see Xbox One beating PS4 in NPD sales is in November or December but it will be pretty close if it does (PS4 wouldn't be that far behind).
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sales will increase because its heading into fall. how much they increase relative to PS4 is what matters.
 
B

BananaSprinkles

Banned
Aquamarine said:
Well there's E3, which might influence PS4 and 3DS out of that list (PS4 more so).

But I imagine some of that PS4 bump will get mitigated by preorders for the Destiny PS4 bundle. So it's a tossup.
Click to expand...

I thought Watch Dogs (and maybe MLB 14: The Show) would give the PS4 a nice little bump in May but it actually sold slightly less per week than in April.

I might actually be overestimating the overall impact of Mario Kart 8 for the Wii U and the kinect-less XBone SKU. Or I could be way off on everything. I'm an idiot.
 
A

Abdiel

Member
The disparity in some of the predictions so far are rather amusing to note. Aqua and I both weighed in with approximations/analysis, so we'll have to see how that all pans out.

I'll still stand by my comment that anyone predicting less than 200k for the PS4 this month is crazy, though. 5 week month, folks! Even if it were slightly slower, that'd still leave us over 200k for the month.
 
Z

Zephyx

Member
I'll try, though, I'm not really interested in HW sales:

[360] 60K
[XB1] 220K
[3DS] 80K
[WIU] 100K
[PSV] 30K
[PS3] 45K
[PS4] 260K
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
theprodigy said:
I'm curious, what were the Gamecube sales for the equivalent month back then (and the next month, I suppose)
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PS2:

May 2001 - 282K
June 2001 - 344K
July 2001 - 352K

May 2002 - 464K
June 2002 - 690K
July 2002 - 436K


Xbox:

May 2002 - 229K
June 2002 - 263K
July 2002 - 154K


GameCube:

May 2002 - 111K
June 2002 - 207K
July 2002 - 138K

May 2003 - 83K
June 2003 - 123K
July 2003 - 126K


Or if you're curious about SKU breakdown for June 2002:

GAMECUBE JET - 134K
GAMECUBE INDIGO - 73K
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
theprodigy said:
LOL

thanks, but I think the equivalent time frame is June-July 2003
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Oh damn you're right. It's really late over here...sorry about that.


GameCube:

May 2003 - 83K
June 2003 - 123K
July 2003 - 126K


Or SKU breakdown for June 2003:

GAMECUBE JET - 52K
GAMECUBE INDIGO - 31K
GAMECUBE PLATINUM - 28K
GAMECUBE MARIO SUNSHINE BUNDLE - 5K
GAMECUBE REFURBISHED - 7K
 
H

hepburn3d

Member
[PS4] 236K
[3DS] 121K
[XB1] 99K
[WIU] 90K
[360] 70K
[PS3] 44K

Thank you in advance for doing the tracking. Always enjoy the predictions.
 
K

Kyougar

Member
MrJoe said:
PS4 will lead in sales period, whatever month you look at. that doesn't mean X1 needs "saving" or whatever. as long as it's profitable for Microsoft, that can be considered a success from their point of view, even if they are being outsold by PS4. money and profit are the things Microsoft is chiefly concerned about, not relative market position.
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XB1 Needs saving when you could make MORE Money with your engineers on other projects. I dont think Microsoft will drop the XB1 at the Moment or the near future. Pride (and relative market position) is preventing that to a degree.
But we will never see a successor to the XB1 at this point.
 
K

KillerMan91

Member
[360] 70k
[3DS] 120k
[PS3] 43k
[PS4] 235k
[WIU] 100k
[XB1] 165k

I am probably overly optimistic once again with pretty much everything but I want to believe.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
So in previous topics it was discussed what would be required sales-wise to show the unbundling of the kinect option being announced 2 - 3 weeks early having been a successful strategy.

Code: 
XB1 US Sales

Month | Sales | Sales per Week
April |  115k |    28.75k
May   |   77k |    19.25k

Assuming April is the baseline to beat or to improve upon then the average sales per week for the 9 weeks of tracking in NPD for May + June should be above 28.75k or the total XB1 sales in the US for May + June should be greater than 258.75K.

With May results already in, XB1 would need to sell more than 181.75K in June for the weekly average of May + June to beat April's weekly average. That seems high and probably an unlikely goal. I imagine it will be considered a success internally if the average sales per week for June only is above 28.75k [or if XB1 sells noticeably better in June then in April] which in absolute terms corresponds to June XB1 sales of greater than 143.75K

Thus the range of success is something like [Yet-to-be Successful Strategy < 143.75K < Somewhat Successful Short-term strategy TBD long-term Effect < 181.75K < Successful with a good chance of raising the baseline]

This of course doesn't account for any MOM changes that might naturally occur outside changes to the days of tracking nor any game effect
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
SwiftDeath said:
So in previous topics it was discussed what would be required sales-wise to show the unbundling of the kinect option being announced 2 - 3 weeks early having been a successful strategy.

Code: 
XB1 US Sales

Month | Sales | Sales per Week
April |  115k |    28.75k
May   |   77k |    19.25k

Assuming April is the baseline to beat or to improve upon then the average sales per week for the 9 weeks of tracking in NPD for May + June should be above 28.75k or the total XB1 sales in the US for May + June should be greater than 258.75K.

With May results already in, XB1 would need to sell more than 181.75K in June for the weekly average of May + June to beat April's weekly average. That seems high and probably an unlikely goal. I imagine it will be considered a success internally if the average sales per week for June only is above 28.75k [or if XB1 sells noticeably better in June then in April] which in absolute terms corresponds to June XB1 sales of greater than 143.75K

Thus the range of success is something like [Yet-to-be Successful Strategy < 143.75K < Somewhat Successful Short-term strategy TBD long-term Effect < 181.75K < Successful with a good chance of raising the baseline]

This of course doesn't account for any MOM changes that might naturally occur outside changes to the days of tracking nor any game effect
Click to expand...

I think that sales per week for the month of June should at least be higher than April due to the new SKU. Combine that with the early announcement of the SKU impacting May sales, and it would seem like the Xbox One will at least pass the 150K mark for the upcoming NPD. We'll see though.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Bgamer90 said:
I think that sales per week for the month of June should at least be higher than April due to the new SKU. Combine that with the early announcement of the SKU impacting May sales, and it would seem like the Xbox One will at least pass the 150K mark for the upcoming NPD. We'll see though.
Click to expand...

I concur that it will probably be up from April numbers so greater than 144K or so [think I have to update my predictions to reflect that though]. It's an odd thing to try and analyse because the early announcement of the new SKU was certainly a short-term strategy just to benefit June [or at least I think it was] but the unbundling of kinect to offer a cheaper SKU is most definitely a long-term strategy. And as always my own analysis is in essence math on a napkin so I always love to hear other people's take on it :)
 
M

Maitiú

Member
Aquamarine said:
Or SKU breakdown for June 2003:

GAMECUBE JET - 52K
GAMECUBE INDIGO - 31K
GAMECUBE PLATINUM - 28K
GAMECUBE MARIO SUNSHINE BUNDLE - 5K
GAMECUBE REFURBISHED - 7K
Click to expand...

I have been wondering if all the refurb Wii U systems bought on nintendo's site would be tracked by NPD. This means they are, yeah?

I also didn't know Nintendo's refurb program has been in place for over a decade!
 
Yoda

Yoda

Member
[PS4] 249K
[XB1] 159K
[3DS] 125K
[WIU] 75K
[360] 69K
[PS3] 45K

Xbox One really needs to perform this month but there aren't any indicators that the new SKU has evened out the playing field. If it can't do well w/a lower price + post E3 buzz I don't see it doing well until the holiday's short of an actual price-cut.
 
H

heidern

Junior Member
SwiftDeath said:
Assuming April is the baseline to beat or to improve upon then the average sales per week for the 9 weeks of tracking in NPD for May + June should be above 28.75k or the total XB1 sales in the US for May + June should be greater than 258.75K.
Click to expand...

The disKinect wasn't announced until the second week of May.

Is it possible the X1 sold ~56K the first two weeks of May and only ~20K the last two? I think that is unlikely, we can also see that it seems the normal/Titanfall SKU has continued to sell even since the cheaper SKU. This would mean the baseline was already dropping in May. In fact the last two weeks of April were probably lower than the first two weeks of April. For example, from April it could have been something like:
April: 33K 31K 27K 25K
May: 23K 21K 19K 17K

Which would suggest the target baseline to beat is below 25K or even below 20K if you think the unbundling announcement didn't have a short term negative effect.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
heidern said:
The disKinect wasn't announced until the second week of May.

Is it possible the X1 sold ~56K the first two weeks of May and only ~20K the last two? I think that is unlikely, we can also see that it seems the normal/Titanfall SKU has continued to sell even since the cheaper SKU. This would mean the baseline was already dropping in May. In fact the last two weeks of April were probably lower than the first two weeks of April. For example, from April it could have been something like:
April: 33K 31K 27K 25K
May: 23K 21K 19K 17K

Which would suggest the target baseline to beat is below 25K or even below 20K if you think the unbundling announcement didn't have a short term negative effect.
Click to expand...

Interesting point. May's NPD tracking period was from the 4th to the 31st, announcement was on the 13th so it's 2 and a half weeks or 18 days to be specific of May tracking after the announcement. Nonetheless perhaps I'm being too optimistic in my baseline estimates.
 
D

donny2112

Member
EdReedFan20 said:
Is it reasonable to assume this is a sign PS4 outsold XB1 again in North America?

http://www.engadget.com/2014/07/08/microsoft-xbox-one-upgrade-gift/
Click to expand...

It's reasonable to assume that XB1 isn't having as big a bump as they'd like, which matches the anecdotal/Amazon posts we've been seeing for over a month now. PS4 beating XB1 in June was already extremely likely before such a MS move.

Maybe PS4 will be the only half-way decent system sales in June like they have been for the last two months?
 
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