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[Aquamarine]

Pachter:

PS4: 255K
XB1: 150K
WIU: 67.5K
360: 65K
PS3: 42K

Pachter might be really close this time.

Man, if that WiiU prediction holds up...Damn.

Over 20% weekly drop for Wii U? Nah..

Spoiler

Unless there were REALLY none of the MK8 bundles in stock at all last month...

If that WiiU number is close then RIP WiiU.

Looks like no one expects XB1 to over take PS4 but that big of a gap despite price parity in MS's biggest market would be disastrous for them.

If Pachter's right about Wii U he's going to do better than me.

So let's see how Pachter tends to fare in his Wii U predictions.


Pachter:


January 2013 Prediction: 125K
January 2013 Reality: 57K
Off by: +68K

February 2013 Prediction: 80K
February 2013 Reality: 66K
Off by: +14K

March 2013 Prediction: 55K
March 2013 Reality: 68K
Off by: -13K

April 2013 Prediction: 55K
April 2013 Reality: 37K
Off by: +18K

May 2013 Prediction: 32K
May 2013 Reality: 33K
Off by: -1K

June 2013 Prediction: 38K
June 2013 Reality: 42K
Off by: -4K


January 2014 Prediction: 60K
January 2014 Reality: 49K
Off by: +11K


If we dismiss January 2013 as an outlier:

Off by: +14K
Off by: -13K
Off by: +18K
Off by: -1K
Off by: -4K
Off by: +11K
=
Average deviation: +/- 10K


So Pachter's 67.5K Wii U prediction, according to precedent for these types of months, should be within 10K of the actual number.

However, his horribly wrong January 2013 prediction indicates that we need to take any number Pachter predicts with a grain of salt. He does perform some channel checks but I'd say people like Abdiel has a better grasp of what's going on than him.

 

[Isleofsancroy]

I personally think we won't see Price cut boost for Xbox One until July since this was the month of the price cut, I mean sure you had some hold outs in may but that price cut has to scatter around. it's similar to Titanfall, didn't that do better in April when all the sales numbers (or estimates ) came out?

If anything I think last months sales will be based mostly on E3 and maybe some may hold out.

 

[SwiftDeath]

I personally think we won't see Price cut boost for Xbox One until July since this was the month of the price cut, I mean sure you had some hold outs in may but that price cut has to scatter around. it's similar to Titanfall, didn't that do better in April when all the sales numbers (or estimates ) came out?

If anything I think last months sales will be based mostly on E3 and maybe some may hold out.

While I think we won't see the true effect of the kinectless bundle until July due to the early announcement of the bundle as well as potential long term hold-outs due to the intial price point, I expect XB1 sales to be stronger on a weekly basis in June than July personally.

Not sure what you mean by Titanfall. XB1 sold I think 311k in March and 115k in April so while there was probably an extra week in March it decreased greatly still into April.

 

[jvm]

However, his horribly wrong January 2013 prediction indicates that we need to take any number Pachter predicts with a grain of salt. He does perform some channel checks but I'd say people like Abdiel has a better grasp of what's going on than him.

This requires context, in my opinion.

• No one, and I mean NO ONE, expected the January 2013 results.
• Channel checks may not have revealed returns, which were a reason given for the figure for January 2013.
• Once everyone caught on that the Wii U was basically a dud with consumers past Christmas 2012, including Pachter, expectations were much more in-line with results.

 

[michaelius]

Over 20% weekly drop for Wii U? Nah..

Spoiler

Unless there were REALLY none of the MK8 bundles in stock at all last month...

Considering that May probably consisted of 3 weeks of sub 10k sales and one huge week where all preordered MK8 bundles were sold it wouldn't be that weird.

 

[Kazuma Kiryu]

NUMBERS

Seems like he's fairly accurate so far then. I mean, I wasn't expecting the WiiU to be on fire even with MK8, we all know it's fate, but I think most people were expecting a better result.

 

[x-Lundz-x]

So let's see how Pachter tends to fare in his Wii U predictions.


Pachter:


January 2013 Prediction: 125K
January 2013 Reality: 57K
Off by: +68K

February 2013 Prediction: 80K
February 2013 Reality: 66K
Off by: +14K

March 2013 Prediction: 55K
March 2013 Reality: 68K
Off by: -13K

April 2013 Prediction: 55K
April 2013 Reality: 37K
Off by: +18K

May 2013 Prediction: 32K
May 2013 Reality: 33K
Off by: -1K

June 2013 Prediction: 38K
June 2013 Reality: 42K
Off by: -4K


January 2014 Prediction: 60K
January 2014 Reality: 49K
Off by: +11K


If we dismiss January 2013 as an outlier:

Off by: +14K
Off by: -13K
Off by: +18K
Off by: -1K
Off by: -4K
Off by: +11K
=
Average deviation: +/- 10K


So Pachter's 67.5K Wii U prediction, according to precedent for these types of months, should be within 10K of the actual number.

However, his horribly wrong January 2013 prediction indicates that we need to take any number Pachter predicts with a grain of salt. He does perform some channel checks but I'd say people like Abdiel has a better grasp of what's going on than him.

Great work as always, I wonder how much his PS4 and XB1 numbers deviate from reality.

 

[On Demand]

Yeah...Microsoft really needs to make a statement if not by this month, then at least by the Holiday season.

What can they do? The market has spoken. They can't be too happy about their position but at least they'll still get 3rd party software support unlike the WiiU.

 

[donny2112]

PS4: 240K
XB1: 130K
Wii U: 180K
PS3: 50K
360: 20k

Spoiler

I'm really hoping MK8 helped Wii U sales

If you want your entry counted, use the format in the OP.

Also as a general reminder repeating what was said on the first page, partial predictions (e.g. only predicting current-gen systems) don't get counted. If you want to enter in the prediction competition, you'll need to predict for all the systems from the OP. Thanks!

Pachter:

Great to see Wedbush predicting again!

 

[Kabuki Quantum Lover]

Realistically, what is the sales threshold that'll trigger Nintendo to drop price? Or would it even be salvageable at that point?

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Realistically, what is the sales threshold that'll trigger Nintendo to drop price? Or would it even be salvageable at that point?

I think Nintendo recognises the sales failure that WiiU is hence 3.6 million predicted for its biggest year in terms of exclusives.

The best thing they can do is maintain some good will with their existing fan base and achieve profitability. I don't expect them to price drop.

 

[donny2112]

Realistically, what is the sales threshold that'll trigger Nintendo to drop price? Or would it even be salvageable at that point?

They're just trying to get through this gen with as little damage to the company as possible, at this point, I think. Aggressive price-cutting does not fit that mindset, so I wouldn't expect aggressive price cuts on Wii U ever. Maybe another $50 in August or September, though. 3DS is overdue for a price cut, but they also stated they were planning on getting most of their profits from 3DS this year, which may put a price cut on 3DS out of the picture, too.

 

[x-Lundz-x]

Realistically, what is the sales threshold that'll trigger Nintendo to drop price? Or would it even be salvageable at that point?

Regardless of numbers I personally think it's desperately needed. Even if the WiiU is plus 100k it's just going to drop like a rock in July. They need a massive cut like they did with the 3ds to generate sustained sales in my eyes. It needs a 100 dollar drop.

 

[TheCloser]

[ps4] 200K
[xb1] 168k
[WiiU]80k
[360] 60k
[ps3] 40k

 

[Lefein]

I think if the XBone does not sell at least 200K the month they drop the price and unbundle Kinect, then MS should strongly consider an exit strategy for the console. Developers will not be on board an HD console that has gen6 sales aspirations. They will not be able to recoup money on their titles.

 

[Isleofsancroy]

What can they do? The market has spoken. They can't be too happy about their position but at least they'll still get 3rd party software support unlike the WiiU.

Are we talking U.S. or world wide? because i believe the gap is really not that big.

 

[Tigress]

I think if the XBone does not sell at least 200K the month they drop the price and unbundle Kinect, then MS should strongly consider an exit strategy for the console. Developers will not be on board an HD console that has gen6 sales aspirations. They will not be able to recoup money on their titles.

Waaaay too early. Even if they aren't going to be super succesful it's ridiculous to try to exit not even a year in especially when they aren't even failing that hard or even really failing yet (no, they're not winning and maybe not doing the best but they're that bad off).

Honestly, at least wait until developers stop supporting it before you throw in the towel... so far third parties seem happy to be making stuff for the console. If they start abandoning it, then is the time to maybe start considering an exit strategy (or drastic measures to try to save it depending on if MS thinks it is worth the money).

 

[Into]

Good work (as usual) Aqua

I do think that January 2013 Wii U number was a gigantic kick in the balls (or ovaries) that everyone received, i dont think anyone expected the Wii U to do that badly, not even Brera (lol).

I remember at best we had pictures of boxes of Wii U consoles in stores much of December, so we did not expect it bring major numbers in, it clearly was not selling out.

So Pach being that much of, eh...i can understand it. It really shocked the majority of us, if not all of us.

 

[Mikey Jr.]

Pachter:

PS4: 255K
XB1: 150K
WIU: 67.5K
360: 65K
PS3: 42K

If these numbers are true, Ms has no chance to recover until the halo collection. If the price parity didn't help them, then there is nothing on the horizon for them for the next few months.

Mind you, I'm even sceptical of the halo collection after that titanfall month. I mean, I was even sure xbox was going to sell gangbusters. Tf was on every damn screen.

But then it... Didn't. Just a complete shock.

Maybe halo is the wild card though. That is an amazing value for 60 bucks.

 

[Nouzka]

[PS4] 237k
[XB1] 135k
[WIU] 90k
[360] 70k
[PS3] 43k
[3DS] 115k

 

[WaffleTaco]

I think if the XBone does not sell at least 200K the month they drop the price and unbundle Kinect, then MS should strongly consider an exit strategy for the console. Developers will not be on board an HD console that has gen6 sales aspirations. They will not be able to recoup money on their titles.

wtf? Most people by game console during the holidays. Also since the PS4 is also popular in America, unlike the PS3 was during the first half, it was a
always going to be Sony who would win. Sony has Europe, America and Japan, where it sells decently(maybe not Japan so much), Microsoft has America, and the UK.

 

[On Demand]

Are we talking U.S. or world wide? because i believe the gap is really not that big.

Yeah it's not that big in the U.S. but it's growing every month. Point is they're not outselling Sony like they use to. World wide? forget about it. Sony already won there imo.

 

[Mpl90]

I remember Patcher being completely wrong about 3DS in the price cut month, by about 100,000 units, or when he predicted sales for the best selling titles in March 2012.

I'd say his estimates are like those of every Gaffer, nothing more, nothing less

 

[x-Lundz-x]

I remember Patcher being completely wrong about 3DS in the price cut month, by about 100,000 units, or when he predicted sales for the best selling titles in March 2012.

I'd say his estimates are like those of every Gaffer, nothing more, nothing less

Except he has a lot of resources we don't though for the most part. Of course he is wrong sometimes but I think on avenge he has a better track record than the average gaffer.

 

[Graphics Horse]

Yeah usual results are like predicting tomorrow's weather, when price cuts and huge games are involved it's more like predicting tomorrow's earthquakes.

 

[Aquamarine]

I remember Patcher being completely wrong about 3DS in the price cut month, by about 100,000 units, or when he predicted sales for the best selling titles in March 2012.

I'd say his estimates are like those of every Gaffer, nothing more, nothing less

Well, Pachter is at a different level than your average GAFfer.


Pachter has been in the equity research field since 2002. He has a whole bunch of industry contacts who can tell him things.

He has full access to NPD data and he performs a variety of localised channel checks.

The average GAFfer has none of that.

 

[Lefein]

wtf? Most people by game console during the holidays. Also since the PS4 is also popular in America, unlike the PS3 was during the first half, it was a
always going to be Sony who would win. Sony has Europe, America and Japan, where it sells decently(maybe not Japan so much), Microsoft has America, and the UK.

I didn't say it in context of the console wars. I'm talking about overall sales proposition. If MS does not clear an 8 million unit sold-through world wide footprint, then their prospects are looking awfully Gen6. The PS3 had resilience despite poor sales in the US due to the factors you stated, but XBox does not.

If you are a developer/publisher, this is a grim outlook on making games with an arguably large if not larger development budget than the PS4. I apologize if I was not clearer.

 

[PeregrinSe7en]

so today's the day right?

what can we expect if PS4 outsold X1 for june

 

[Elios83]

Still in time?

[360] 70k
[3DS] 120k
[PS3] 55k
[PS4] 240k
[WIU] 85k
[XB1] 180k

 

[Aquamarine]

so today's the day right?

what can we expect if PS4 outsold X1 for june

Thursday the 17th at 4:00 PM EDT / 6:30 PM EDT.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

I didn't say it in context of the console wars. I'm talking about overall sales proposition. If MS does not clear an 8 million unit sold-through world wide footprint, then their prospects are looking awfully Gen6. The PS3 had resilience despite poor sales in the US due to the factors you stated, but XBox does not.

If you are a developer/publisher, this is a grim outlook on making games with an arguably large if not larger development budget than the PS4. I apologize if I was not clearer.

Isn't the Xbone still struggling to catch the Wii U at this point? And look how much 3rd party support that console gets.

There is a small point in there somewhere...

 

[A_Gorilla]

While I think we won't see the true effect of the kinectless bundle until July due to the early announcement of the bundle as well as potential long term hold-outs due to the intial price point, I expect XB1 sales to be stronger on a weekly basis in June than July personally.

Not sure what you mean by Titanfall. XB1 sold I think 311k in March and 115k in April so while there was probably an extra week in March it decreased greatly still into April.

Would the recent offers by MS and stores like Target ($75 back and a $50 gift card if I remember right) suggest that XB1 sales are still sluggish for July?

 

[spatenfloot]

Isn't the Xbone still struggling to catch the Wii U at this point? And look how much 3rd party support that console gets.

There is a small point in there somewhere...

No, the WiiU has different architechture that makes porting more manpower intensive. Porting a PS4/Xbone/PC game is much simpler to do and that means it will still get a version despite lower sales.

 

[btags]

Well, Pachter is at a superior position to your average GAFfer.

Must resist urge to make lame physics joke.

 

[spatenfloot]

Would the recent offers by MS and stores like Target ($75 back and a $50 gift card if I remember right) suggest that XB1 sales are still sluggish for July?

That is the conclusion that many people have drawn from it.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

If we dismiss January 2013 as an outlier:

Wasn't that the month there were rumours that the results were massively skewed due to an extremely high number of returns? (probably from scalpers who anticipated Wii like supply / demand discrepancies)

 

[Graphics Horse]

I didn't say it in context of the console wars. I'm talking about overall sales proposition. If MS does not clear an 8 million unit sold-through world wide footprint, then their prospects are looking awfully Gen6. The PS3 had resilience despite poor sales in the US due to the factors you stated, but XBox does not.

If you are a developer/publisher, this is a grim outlook on making games with an arguably large if not larger development budget than the PS4. I apologize if I was not clearer.

You might only need 20k copies sold to recoup budgeting for an Xbone port. It's nowhere near as dramatic as you put it. If Japanese devs ever decide to make some games I can see a lot of them skipping Xbox, but you won't get much of it elsewhere unless people buy less xbo games than they currently do.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

No, the WiiU has different architechture that makes porting more manpower intensive. Porting a PS4/Xbone/PC game is much simpler to do and that means it will still get a version despite lower sales.

True, but because of the Xbone's silly ram arrangement, getting its versions of multiplat titles on a similar level to those on PS4 and PC is not straightforward.

Obviously I'm not saying support is going to drop. But if they let the PS4 get too much momentum (and that's happening when TLOU remastered and then Destiny land) they could end up a distant 2nd place this gen.

And when I say distant 2nd, I mean half the userbase worldwide. Which is crazy. That would be a really hard sale when trying to secure 3rd-party exclusive DLC and content, which was used last gen in part to perpetuate growth in the userbase.

 

[The Llama]

If these numbers are true, Ms has no chance to recover until the halo collection. If the price parity didn't help them, then there is nothing on the horizon for them for the next few months.

Mind you, I'm even sceptical of the halo collection after that titanfall month. I mean, I was even sure xbox was going to sell gangbusters. Tf was on every damn screen.

But then it... Didn't. Just a complete shock.

Maybe halo is the wild card though. That is an amazing value for 60 bucks.

I'm not sure what the MCC will even do for the Xbox, tbh. It's not going to expand the userbase much. The crowd who will buy the MCC is largely the people who bought the XB1 at launch and immediately after.

 

[A_Gorilla]

Yeah...Microsoft really needs to make a statement if not by this month, then at least by the Holiday season.

Um why? I'm seriously asking here, what can they possibly say regarding the situation that won't piss investors off / fuel the fire fire for the "xbone is teh doomed!" crowd?

 

[Lefein]

True, but because of the Xbone's silly ram arrangement, getting its versions of multiplat titles on a similar level to those on PS4 and PC is not straightforward.

Obviously I'm not saying support is going to drop. But if they let the PS4 get too much momentum (and that's happening when TLOU remastered and then Destiny land) they could end up a distant 2nd place this gen.

And when I say distant 2nd, I mean half the userbase worldwide. Which is crazy. That would be a really hard sale when trying to secure 3rd-party exclusive DLC and content, which was used last gen in part to perpetuate growth in the userbase.

Refreshing, you see the long game. That is my main concern for the XBone as well. Were it not for the architecture of the system resembling a gaming laptop from 2009, I'd say that it could get by as a port box as well, but that ESRam makes or breaks porting to the machine.
If your prospective world wide userbase is in the 30 million range, developers/publishers are going to care less and less about using that local memory on the APU. I see this resulting in a snowballing effect when third and fourth year console buyers are sizing up the two.

 

[Aquamarine]

Um why? I'm seriously asking here, what can they possibly say regarding the situation that won't piss investors off / fuel the fire fire for the "xbone is teh doomed!" crowd?

Statement as in a more prominent impact on the market.

Not a literal PR statement.

 

[Friend of Sonic]

I guess I'm a fool for thinking the Wii U could hit triple digits in June.

 

[Blanquito]

I'm not sure what the MCC will even do for the Xbox, tbh. It's not going to expand the userbase much. The crowd who will buy the MCC is largely the people who bought the XB1 at launch and immediately after.

I agree -- I made a post earlier in this thread using the minuscule information that normal people have access to (Amazon) about that topic.

The MCC, outside of the announcement month, is preordering at about the same rate that Xboxones are being sold. Compare that to Destiny, which is still being preordered at absurd rates, and even the white PS4+Destiny combo is doing better than just the MCC alone.

Of course, things can change once it's finally released, but from what evidence we see now, Destiny will affect console sales much more than MCC.

 

[Aquamarine]

Wasn't that the month there were rumours that the results were massively skewed due to an extremely high number of returns? (probably from scalpers who anticipated Wii like supply / demand discrepancies)

I'm not sure about the extent of the skewing, but the purpose of including that number was to show that sometimes Pachter's predictions are somewhat off the mark.

Another example of Pachter sometimes being off:

December 2013

Pachter's prediction: 550K
Reality: 481K
Off by: +69K

 

[Graphics Horse]

Refreshing, you see the long game. That is my main concern for the XBone as well. Were it not for the architecture of the system resembling a gaming laptop from 2009, I'd say that it could get by as a port box as well, but that ESRam makes or breaks porting to the machine.
If your prospective world wide userbase is in the 30 million range, developers/publishers are going to care less and less about using that local memory on the APU. I see this resulting in a snowballing effect when third and fourth year console buyers are sizing up the two.

You might be right in 5 years time, but we're currently at a stage where most games are still getting last-gen versions, despite them selling worse. Most games release platforms will be chosen by the sales department, not the programmers.

 

[WaffleTaco]

I didn't say it in context of the console wars. I'm talking about overall sales proposition. If MS does not clear an 8 million unit sold-through world wide footprint, then their prospects are looking awfully Gen6. The PS3 had resilience despite poor sales in the US due to the factors you stated, but XBox does not.

If you are a developer/publisher, this is a grim outlook on making games with an arguably large if not larger development budget than the PS4. I apologize if I was not clearer.

I think they could pick up pace, but if they don't by the holiday, they are probably going for the next xbox around 2018.

 

[Dragonborn]

I'm not sure what the MCC will even do for the Xbox, tbh. It's not going to expand the userbase much. The crowd who will buy the MCC is largely the people who bought the XB1 at launch and immediately after.

The MCC is huge with the core Halo community, as we've seen on forums, reddit, and other enthusiast sites; however, these are people that already own an X1, or were planning to buy one anyways for Halo 5. The issues is that I don't believe that hype will carry over to the mainstream that makes the series huge. To them, it'll just be "those games I played years ago". Why bother with that when there's a brand new CoD, Destiny (from Bungie no less), Evolve, etc.

Much like TF, people are pinning too much of their hopes on one game and just like in March, I think they're setting themselves for disappointment. If throwing in a free copy of the most overhyped game this decades along with retail wide price cuts didn't help, a remaster of old games won't do much either, even if those old games are Halo (which I honestly do think has taken a hit in terms of brand). MS will have to wait till Halo 5 to get their heavy hitter, and by then the gap will be way, way bigger. WW, this holiday season is going to be pretty much a bloodbath. Last year wasn't so bad since it was launch time, but this year, it's not even going to be remotely close.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

Refreshing, you see the long game. That is my main concern for the XBone as well. Were it not for the architecture of the system resembling a gaming laptop from 2009, I'd say that it could get by as a port box as well, but that ESRam makes or breaks porting to the machine.
If your prospective world wide userbase is in the 30 million range, developers/publishers are going to care less and less about using that local memory on the APU. I see this resulting in a snowballing effect when third and fourth year console buyers are sizing up the two.

Yep, I agree with the snowball effect 'theory'. It only goes one way from here - the gap in userbase growing.

Let's assume the Bone's sales are at around 5 million and the PS4 9 million worldwide. Has there ever been a precedent in the industry, or damn any tech industry, where one company has managed to close a gap as significant as this to a more level ratio (like 40/60 or something respectable)?

The PS3 I don't think ever had 3 million + disadvantage to the 360 early on in its lifespan, or did it?

 

[B.O.O.M]

I guess I'm a fool for thinking the Wii U could hit triple digits in June.

it was Reggie who made a comment that make some believe in this right? I remember a few gaffers arguing using that as a fact almost in the last NPD thread.

Yeah I doubt they will have their expectations met this Thursday