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June 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 15th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
The highest selling XB1 at Amazon is being outsold by a Wii U bundle. The reason that's impressive to me is that Amazon doesn't even stock Nintendo hardware. So on the strength of third party sellers, Wii U is outselling Xbox One, which is being sold directly from Amazon. I can see Wii U beating XB1 this NPD slightly, but maybe substantially in Julys NPD.
SwiftDeath
Member
Most likely, usually described as the snowball effect. With both PS4 and XB1 now requiring a paid subscription for multiplayer [ugh] and cross-play not a thing really. Any groups of friends who wish to play games online with each other will more than likely fall one way or the other as it's unlikely whole groups of friends are going to buy both machines. An early lead should help that console generate additional sales if that's "the place to game".
SwiftDeath
Member
Does it say to you that there's only 10 in stock? I check on that SKU once a week or so for the past I don't know 4 months? And it has constantly said 10 in stock for at least the last 3 months. So either MS is somehow getting Amazon to limit the stock it says it has which seems unlikely or Amazon literally hasn't sold a single Day One Edition XB1 in like 3, 3 and half months
This has kind of been driving me crazy btw
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
Does it say to you that there's only 10 in stock? I check on that SKU once a week or so for the past I don't know 4 months? And it has constantly said 10 in stock for at least the last 3 months. So either MS is somehow getting Amazon to limit the stock it says it has which seems unlikely or Amazon literally hasn't sold a single Day One Edition XB1 in like 3, 3 and half months
This has kind of been driving me crazy btw
Aren't there better bundles available to people that aren't huge achievement whores?
SwiftDeath
Member
Yes of course but how can at least a single solitary unit on Amazon of this SKU not sell in 3 and a half months! But yes unless you like the collecting/achievement aspect of it, it's the worst value proposition.
Refreshment.01
Member
[360] 60 K
[3DS] 109 K
[PS3] 36 K
[PS4] 240 K
[WIU] 85 K
[XB1] 135 K
[3DS] 109 K
[PS3] 36 K
[PS4] 240 K
[WIU] 85 K
[XB1] 135 K
Depends on what's considered the "turning point".
During the PS3's first July in America (July 2007), the gap between the PS3 and Xbox 360 was a little bit over 4 million (thanks in part due to the Xbox 360 coming out a year earlier).
Two years later, the US sales gap between the PS3 and Xbox 360 in America during was over 7 Million. 360 had more than double the sales of the PS3; hence why the 360 was pretty much thought of as the "system to get since all of my friends have one".
The current US sales gap between the PS4 and Xbox One is a little bit over 600K. Really isn't enough for one system to be seen as "the system to get since all of my friends have one" in the same fashion as the Xbox 360 was last gen. The gap will more than likely grow but I don't see the US gap ever being as big as Xbox 360 vs. PS3 last gen.
Damn, dat Day 235 Edition
Jimmyfenix
Member
So are we going to get the Day 235 achievement?
Isnt their year end next week? Surely they must make some kind of statement, even if it is in a general Xbox family sense
Mikey Jr.
Member
Hard to say. There is no magical number where it suddenly crosses that line and thats it.
Thats why the early months are so vital. It builds that momentum, that "snowball", where eventually the snowball gets so big that it is hard for the competition to overcome.
Thats why Sony is an amazing position right now. All they have to do is keep selling more than Xbox in the short term, and eventually they'll automatically win the generation.
And it looks like they are set up for that.
-Watchdogs was a really smart business decision.
-Tons of indies games that just seemed to be coming out for PS4 only
-$100 cheaper right out of the gate
-The whole "1080p vs 900p" war. I mean, that Ghosts running at 720p only was kind of a big deal. It was a Xbox franchise that looked better on the competition and made tons of news in the gaming outlets
-Destiny. The alpha, the early beta, and now exclusive DLC for one of the biggest games in 2014.
-Multiplatform games 9/10 being shown the PS4 version.
Sony really could not start of their console any better.
ethomaz
Banned
I don't know how much time but some weeks/months ago I searched this item and it had 999+ in stock... so after that two weeks ago I went back and it showed only 10.
Thursday.
SwiftDeath
Member
See I thought that happened but can't understand why if Amazon has greater than 10 units of stock they would obfuscate it. Usually they would simply limit the customers to 3 each so as to not allow anyone to use their systems to check stock baselines :\
It would make sense since it is a "limited edition" item. Showing that there are only 10 makes it seem more limited.
I'm hoping this ends up being the case, not just for a month, but in general. If both Xbone and Wiiu sell poorly, the console business will contract by quite a bit compared to last gen. I'm hoping that the Wiiu picks up the slack for Xbone. With what Nintendo did this E3, they deserve it.
Jimmyfenix
Member
CBOAT :O
Eolz
Member
No, that's stroke.
velvet_nitemare
Member
LOL, I am not a CBOAT. Sorry to cause panic.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Actually if we ignore the 1 year head start and look at the first 5 months of 2007 forPS3 and 360 we see:
1050k vs 665k
thats a ratio of 1.6 : 1
PS4 vs XB1
1320k vs 902k
ratio of 1.46 vs 1
Not that different.
Sept - Dec is where the 360 mainly made its lead it seems.
Does it say to you that there's only 10 in stock? I check on that SKU once a week or so for the past I don't know 4 months? And it has constantly said 10 in stock for at least the last 3 months. So either MS is somehow getting Amazon to limit the stock it says it has which seems unlikely or Amazon literally hasn't sold a single Day One Edition XB1 in like 3, 3 and half months
This has kind of been driving me crazy btw
yes, if i try to add more than 10 to my cart it tells me they only have 10 available...
of course there are...but the fact that the "Day One" edition Xbone is still in stock fascinates me...
I would assume since the announcements. "I'm getting a () because my friends are getting one". It'll just snowball from there.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
So in the May NPD thread, Abdiel mentioned that the Wii U & XB1 were both selling better than before at Best Buys, and while the Wii U put up a valiant effort, the XB1 probably outsold it (but neither was near the PS4).
Now I would normally not consider Best Buy the location that most people buy their Wii U. That might also explain the lack of MK8 bundle stock at GameStop & Best Buy. If, like folks were mentioning, that Nintendo was diverting their MK8 bundle stock to Walmart & Target, then I would assume the console would likely be selling better there (otherwise they'd stock Best Buy & Gamestop too, right?). Maybe I'm being too naive, but Pachter's predictions seem weird to me (Wii U selling half of XB1) considering the anecdotal evidence we have, as that's a pretty massive difference.
Now I would normally not consider Best Buy the location that most people buy their Wii U. That might also explain the lack of MK8 bundle stock at GameStop & Best Buy. If, like folks were mentioning, that Nintendo was diverting their MK8 bundle stock to Walmart & Target, then I would assume the console would likely be selling better there (otherwise they'd stock Best Buy & Gamestop too, right?). Maybe I'm being too naive, but Pachter's predictions seem weird to me (Wii U selling half of XB1) considering the anecdotal evidence we have, as that's a pretty massive difference.
pieatorium
Member
I thought walmart was the big mass market product place for things like Wii and call of duty. Wouldn't WiiU's niche low volume status more likely push it further into specialty stores like gamestop and online to amazon?
theprodigy
Member
This is what I'm thinking, particularly in regards to Mario Kart 8 on Amazon....
SwiftDeath
Member
In theory it should but in Amazon's case at least they for some reason don't sell Nintendo hardware directly. No idea why though. Thus they're unlikely to be too big a source of Nintendo hardware sales. Personally I get the feeling Target is now Nintendo's best retailer assuming it's no longer Walmart of course. I always see an active effort by Target to advertise Nintendo handhelds
James Sawyer Ford
Member
The turning point has already happened, IMHO. This gen is very early, and even so, PS4 is outselling the Xbox One in the US nearly 2:1.
Microsoft will need to reverse this trend or else they will start losing significant ground to the viral effect of "my friends own the PS4, therefore that's the system I will get".
Maybe the master chief collection + price parity does enough to where there's not quite a 2:1 sales gap, but maybe it doesn't. We'll just have to see.
These coming months will be very telling since they will show us a baseline of PS4:XB1 gap, now with price parity.
Omnistalgic
Member
the only thing they could have did was launch earlier...even a good 5-6 months with no competition would have been good.
How much did 360 have over PS3 in U.S? I know there are some RROD to account for but still, isn't it like 17 million difference?
Sony is off to a great start, but they absolutely let MS man-handle them last gen coming off PS2, the most successful console since SNES! I'm sorry, but if I was the Father of Playstation's successor, I wouldn't be satisfied until I at least returned the favor in the U.S completely outsell MS in every territory. Sony is certainly not out of the water here. What MS did with 360 wasn't all of there doing, but so far, it was still very impressive. I am an absolutely die-hard Sony lover, but even I bought a box with Gears at one point. I traded it in, but the point remains. Sony needs something unique and exclusive, I'm not sure VR is it, or PSnow..
SwiftDeath
Member
Right now US LTD for 360 sits at around ~41.5M and US LTD for PS3 is at around ~26M.
In essence 360 outsold PS3 by around 60% in the US. The PS4 has thus far outsold the XB1 in the US by around 21.5% LTD, and by about 45% YTD. If you think Sony is anything but ecstatic with their PS4 sales in the US, I'm not sure what to tell you.
Last I heard, amazon has about 5-10% marketshare of game sales and Gamestop is about 33% and is #1. I think Best Buy and Walmart round out the top 3.
Omnistalgic
Member
right now....
Just saying how in the world is that going to keep up when MS just corrected all the flaws of the machine, matched price and had compelling exclusives early in the life cycle. They basically did what Sony did last gen but corrected all the mistakes in like a 3rd of the time. I don't see how Sony is ecstatic specifically talking about U.S here, with smartphones and tablets being so popular, gamers are being more apathetic about where they are playing and more platform agnostic. This gen is a good gen to establish brand.
I don't want a Tablet, I want an Ipad.
I wouldn't be resting on my laurels at SCEA right now.
Aquamarine
Member
I'd agree with ~30% for GameStop as #1, but I wouldn't put Best Buy as #3.
Target has 1,789 stores in the USA. Best Buy has 1,055 stores in the USA.
Even though Best Buy might have a more substantial video game presence per store, I'd still say Target outclasses Best Buy in terms of NPD sales.
So something like this:
1) GameStop + gamestop.com
2) Wal-Mart + walmart.com
...comprising the majority of NPD numbers.
And then:
3) Target + target.com
4) Best Buy + bestbuy.com
...making up another ~20-25%.
SwiftDeath
Member
Happiness is usually relative? Sony having being brutally outperformed by MS in the US last generation are clearly going to either lead the US in sales by 20% or so, or at worst basically split the US while actually gaining market share in Europe of which they already had a majority of the market not to mention the rest of the world.
About tablets and smart phones, what do you want Sony to do about it? Wii U and XB1 are incredibly apt examples of what happens when you try to force a hook [gamepad, kinect] as it were. Personally I think their VR will be incredibly niche as well. But regardless tablets and smart phones happened. It's done. You cannot undo that. They will garner what audiences they can and monetize them as successfully as they can like any other business does. Just because PS4 might not sell as much as PS2 in no way makes it an abject failure. It is all about profit, mindshare, brand power etc.
Are you expecting XB1 to outsell PS4 in June's NPD? Thus far XB1 has failed to prove adequate competition to PS4 from a market perspective. And while its possible that now with the kinectless SKU XB1 might outsell the PS4 for a month, it looks unlikely with the insight available to us. Unlike the PS3, XB1 does not have some region [Europe] almost as large as the US where it is leading in marketshare and off-setting some of the gains PS4 is making elsewhere. PS4 is legitimately outselling XB1 in every territory worldwide besides maybe the UK, Brazil and like Canada. And the last official word we've had from any of them put PS4 ahead [not sure on Brazil actually]. The idea that the XB1 is exactly like the PS3 needs to stop. PS3 had a strong showing in Europe which as a whole is about equivalent to the US in console sales. XB1 is losing fairly significantly in the major markets where consoles sell.
I don't think the XB1 is a lost cause or anything. I just can't find any logical justification to how in the hell Sony is anything but happy with PS4's US performance
I don't think you have to worry about either company resting on their laurels at this stage.
The comparisons between MS and Sony's turnaround times is bit of a false equivalency. Their 'problems' and their severity are completely different.
I'd agree that there is fierce competition between the two, as well as all sides from other devices...and I think that really applies to the outer layers outside the core. But compared to where Sony was positioned last gen, this (they're hoping) is their turnaround gen. The roots began midway through the PS3 lifecycle, where changes and investments were made that wouldn't see much benefit til now (things like PS+, strengthened first party studios, PS Share). While they may turn out to be the 'winner' this gen. I would imagine that next gen is when they hope to have a return to clear dominance.
Omnistalgic
Member
interesting points...just have to wait and see really...Sony may not have the same 10-12 million units from Japan either though if Japanese developers don't get on board for another home console. Sony may have to lead the way on that front.
Not disagreeing with anything above, and I don't think X1 will outsell PS4 June or July tbh, just stressing that the same strategy can't be used this year for Sony if they want to remain on top...
Omnistalgic
Member
good posts man....
SwiftDeath
Member
I think it's pretty clear at this point that it's unlikely for anything but maybe Nintendo's next handheld to gain 10M or more sales in Japan [3DS is already over 15M of course] but Wii U and PS4 will likely have trouble getting anywhere near those kind of numbers.
But there is quite a good chance that Sony will make up those lost console sales say 5M from Japan in the US and then some. They stand to gain about 11M sales in the US over the generation from MS's marketshare bleeding over. Maybe a couple million less if MS gets more competitive but it's clear PS4 will sell well in the US.
Sony's strategy has been fairly genius in certain points. Specifically Watch Dogs and Destiny's co-marketing. Destiny will clearly be one of the most heavily advertised games of the year and its marketing will be heavily skewed to playstation systems. So while Sony may have a weak exclusive line-up for the fall, I doubt their sales will falter too much as their image as the place to go for 3rd party games will remain the strongest and that's what will be most important this fall I imagine.
SwiftDeath
Member
Yes it's almost 3 hours past the cut-off
May the NPD gods have mercy on my pitiful predictions
Aquamarine
Member
Oh damnit I forgot to put my predictions up.
donny2112 I know this is 3 hours after the deadline.. I'm sorry. :-(
I hope you will still accept it.
[360] 75,000
[3DS] 129,000
[PS3] 44,000
[PS4] 236,000
[WIU] 79,000
[XB1] 138,000
donny2112 I know this is 3 hours after the deadline.. I'm sorry. :-(
I hope you will still accept it.
[360] 75,000
[3DS] 129,000
[PS3] 44,000
[PS4] 236,000
[WIU] 79,000
[XB1] 138,000
Chobel
Member
Damn it!
James Sawyer Ford
Member
Most PS4 predictions seem in-line with last month, adjusted for an extra week.
Perhaps people aren't so bullish on XB1. I'm somewhat inclined to agree, simply because there were plenty of good deals still going around during the past few months that I don't think there was a huge pent up demand for a Kinectless version.
The new SKU doesn't so much help out initially as much as it will into the holiday season and long-term.
That'd make the Top 4 like 90% of the market. Think you may be overestimating things a bit there. Could see 1+2 being ~60% but not 3+4 being ~30%. Just me speaking from the historical standpoint of Wal-Mart consistently competing, if not at, the #1 spot, so if GS is 30% @ #1, Wal-Mart isn't going to be much behind.
When does your bet run out? Maybe it'll drop before more MLP references in this month's NPD thread?
