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June 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 15th

T

The Llama

Member
SwiftDeath said:
Missed this post the first time round.

I'm not too familiar with the technical specifications of the older consoles. I wouldn't be surprised if MS ordered a slightly customized variant of the GeForce 3 that did things a bit uniquely as that was how consoles were designed for the most part back then with little bits of more advanced tech than generally available.
Click to expand...

Well, it was definitely a variant of the GeForce 3. Per Wikipedia, the GeForce 3 used the NV20 chip, the Xbox used the NV2A. Found this on an old Overclockers forum post from 2001:

GeForce 2 GTS
Core:200MHz
Memory:333MHz
Raw Fillrate:800 Mpixels / 1.6 Gtexel

--------------------------------------
GeForce 3
Core:200MHz
Memory:460MHz
Raw Fillrate:800 Mpixels / 3.2 Gtexel

--------------------------------------
NV2A
Core:250MHz
Memory:266MHz (PC2100) 64MB Total
Raw Fillrate:4.0 Gpixels / 4.0 Gtexel (8 pipelines)


An Anandtech article from the time says this:

You can take the codename to mean that the integrated graphics offers performance and features somewhere in-between the currently available NV20 (GeForce3) core and the upcoming NV25 core.

NV25 became the GeForce 4. So if I had to guess, I'd say the NV2A was just too expensive for nVidia because it was some weird, unique hybrid chip. Could definitely see that playing a role in the demise of the OG Xbox.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
The Llama said:
NV25 became the GeForce 4. So if I had to guess, I'd say the NV2A was just too expensive for nVidia because it was some weird, unique hybrid chip. Could definitely see that playing a role in the demise of the OG Xbox.
Click to expand...

Sounds reasonable to me. Pretty sure the original Xbox was advanced for its time so I wouldn't be surprised if they achieved that through a unique chip that eventually became too expensive to produce
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
donny2112 said:
That'd make the Top 4 like 90% of the market. Think you may be overestimating things a bit there. Could see 1+2 being ~60% but not 3+4 being ~30%. Just me speaking from the historical standpoint of Wal-Mart consistently competing, if not at, the #1 spot, so if GS is 30% @ #1, Wal-Mart isn't going to be much behind.

When does your bet run out? Maybe it'll drop before more MLP references in this month's NPD thread?
:p
Click to expand...

Yeah, that was a bit high.


More like:

GameStop + Wal-Mart being 55%

Target + Best Buy being 20-25%

Remainder of the market being ~20-25%.


For the bet I had two options. I could either leave it without the text and keep it for like a week...or keep it with the text and keep it until the end of the month. I wanted to preserve my integrity so...




Am I still counted in the NPD predictions? Sorry for being late...
 
P

plasmawave

Banned
DeviantBoi said:
No way that PS4 outsells XB1 this month. Microsoft told us they were flying off shelves after the price drop.
Click to expand...

there_is_no_need_to_be_upset-4390.gif


Someone needs to replace the lawn mower with X1.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Aquamarine said:
Am I still counted in the NPD predictions? Sorry for being late...
Click to expand...

I usually try to be a little understanding with the formatting rules (as long as a solid attempt was made to match the format), but the time I'm pretty a stickler on. Sorry. :( This would become one of your two dropped months for the annual rankings, then.
 
H

hepburn3d

Member
donny2112 said:
I usually try to be a little understanding with the formatting rules (as long as a solid attempt was made to match the format), but the time I'm pretty a stickler on. Sorry. :( This would become one of your two dropped months for the annual rankings, then.
Click to expand...

but she gaf resident waifu :(


Really enjoying the opinions in this thread and everyone's estimations. Roll on Thursday. I usually miss the release, being in the UK, and read the results over brekky making me very late for work. Love that morning read.

Shame all these threads don't link into a yearly prediction thread. Now that would be a hard one to guess but would enjoy reading the theories and watching how it all plays out through the year.
 
M

mrklaw

MrArseFace
Omnistalgic said:
right now....

Just saying how in the world is that going to keep up when MS just corrected all the flaws of the machine, matched price and had compelling exclusives early in the life cycle. They basically did what Sony did last gen but corrected all the mistakes in like a 3rd of the time. I don't see how Sony is ecstatic specifically talking about U.S here, with smartphones and tablets being so popular, gamers are being more apathetic about where they are playing and more platform agnostic. This gen is a good gen to establish brand.

I don't want a Tablet, I want an Ipad.

I wouldn't be resting on my laurels at SCEA right now.
Click to expand...

If all that happened and PS4 still outsells xb1 month on month,then Sony will be perfectly happy with their current strategy.

And why bring up smartphones? Both consoles have gotten off to a better start than last generation. Maybe smartphones and tablets have helped people realise the value you get in these relatively inexpensive boxes compared to a $5-600 tablet they upgrade every couple of years?
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
donny2112 said:
I usually try to be a little understanding with the formatting rules (as long as a solid attempt was made to match the format), but the time I'm pretty a stickler on. Sorry. :( This would become one of your two dropped months for the annual rankings, then.
Click to expand...

...

But it's just three hours. :-(
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Aquamarine said:
...

But it's just three hours. :-(
Click to expand...

everyone else got theirs in on time. why couldn't you? /college professor

i had a class in college where if we weren't on time the professor would lock the door and any projects due that day were given a zero. keep in mind there were only three projects for the semester so if you fucked up turn in day the best you could hope for was a d. so many people dropped that there were only 15 of us by the end of the year (when we had started with over 30).

on one such turn-in day, i actually worked through the night until morning. class was at one in the afternoon, and the school was about an hour's drive including parking and taking things to class (if i wanted to be early). i think i had maybe an hour of just staring at the ceiling, not really sleeping until i had to bring it in. we were all zombies, but had arrived on time. and then it was 1:05. 1:10. 1:15. no professor. he didn't show up for 25 minutes, and no one in the room left. that is, until another professor came in with his own class, informing us that our professor had gone to the hospital and class was canceled.
 
P

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
AniHawk said:
everyone else got theirs in on time. why couldn't you? /college professor

i had a class in college where if we weren't on time the professor would lock the door and any projects due that day were given a zero. keep in mind there were only three projects for the semester so if you fucked up turn in day the best you could hope for was a d. so many people dropped that there were only 15 of us by the end of the year (when we had started with over 30).

on one such turn-in day, i actually worked through the night until morning. class was at one in the afternoon, and the school was about an hour's drive including parking and taking things to class (if i wanted to be early). i think i had maybe an hour of just staring at the ceiling, not really sleeping until i had to bring it in. we were all zombies, but had arrived on time. and then it was 1:05. 1:10. 1:15. no professor. he didn't show up for 25 minutes, and no one in the room left. that is, until another professor came in with his own class, informing us that our professor had gone to the hospital and class was canceled.
Click to expand...

Aren't all colleges like that?

We have to deliver our reports to a pigeon hole. At 15:30 (exactly, according to the Uni's server time) he comes to collect it. If you miss it by a couple of seconds, you probably think its okay. After all the box is in his hands, he will understand. No. He just walks by telling you better luck next time.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Psycho_Mantis said:
Aren't all colleges like that?

We have to deliver our reports to a pigeon hole. At 15:30 (exactly, according to the Uni's server time) he comes to collect it. If you miss it by a couple of seconds, you probably think its okay. After all the box is in his hands, he will understand. No. He just walks by telling you better luck next time.
Click to expand...

it varies by professor. i had one guy who would give anyone shit if they came in late. no automatic zeroes though. one day i got in a fight with the center divider of the freeway and had to replace a tire, so i lost about an hour of class time. after telling him about the accident, he was pretty okay about the tardiness.
 
E

Exploratory

Banned
The Llama said:
I'm not sure what the MCC will even do for the Xbox, tbh. It's not going to expand the userbase much. The crowd who will buy the MCC is largely the people who bought the XB1 at launch and immediately after.
Click to expand...

I've seen so many people say they're buying an XB1 for the MCC.
 
P

Pennywise

Member
Aquamarine said:
Agreed wholeheartedly.

Sony's continued silence is tacit confirmation that the PS4 has yet to reach that level.
Click to expand...

Wouldn't it be something for the Gamescom ?
A major milestone announced at a big convention.

I might be wrong through, since it it's a consumer convention.
 
EGOMON

EGOMON

Member
If Sony or any other company for that matter said they achieved certain milestone but in reality they are not or almost there, is there certain group that check these things out if true? Can big companies lie about their numbers?
Am just wondering and not saying Sony/MS/Nintendo/EA/Ubisoft/Activison are doing it.
 
D

Dragonborn

Member
Exploratory said:
I've seen so many people say they're buying an XB1 for the MCC.
Click to expand...

If you're talking about seeing it on forums like Gaf and other places, remember that it was much the same with Titanfall yet that didn't pan out. It doesn't necessarily mean anything. Besides, one could also say that most people buying are either:

1. Already Halo fans (AKA, they were going to jump in regardless
2. Super nostalgic for Halo 2 (AKA very core fans of the series, the mainstream won't harbor the same nostalgia for a 10 year old game).

Much like TF, I think it's going to sell very well, have a high attach rate, but it won't be a big system mover.

Just my two cents. Personally, $350 Halo MCC bundle and I"ll jump in this year (though preferably $299). MS just has to get the value right.

DeviantBoi said:
No way that PS4 outsells XB1 this month. Microsoft told us they were flying off shelves after the price drop.
Click to expand...

In the same PR piece, they also said the Kinect X1 sales were "vibrant". I'd take it with a grain of salt.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Aquamarine said:
...

But it's just three hours. :-(
Click to expand...

Over the years of doing this, there have been people who were excluded who predicted minutes after the cutoff time. You're a great member of this community, and the predictions might not even have gone off some months without your Goddess of Math & Science contributions, but I don't think it'd be fair to those cut off before to go back on that now. But what I can do is calculate your results and have sort of a "What if" ranking. It may end up that this would've been a dropped month, anyways, and the "What if" ranking would at least tell you how it would've turned out in that case. It would be included in the regular ranking, just with an asterisk. So with the annual point rankings, "Aquamarine" would show up once with an asterisk and once without, so you could see where you'd rank for the year.

Sound better?
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
The Llama said:
I'm not sure what the MCC will even do for the Xbox, tbh. It's not going to expand the userbase much. The crowd who will buy the MCC is largely the people who bought the XB1 at launch and immediately after.
Click to expand...


Dragonborn said:
If you're talking about seeing it on forums like Gaf and other places, remember that it was much the same with Titanfall yet that didn't pan out.

Much like TF, I think it's going to sell very well, have a high attach rate, but it won't be a big system mover.
Click to expand...

The game comes out in November -- a month in which consoles usually get a big boost in sales.

I know Titanfall isn't thought of as a "system seller" since the game didn't boost Xbox One sales by that much during the month in which the game released (regardless of many people buying the system to play Titanfall before and after the game released).

Halo MMC is coming in November. How could you determine if the game will be a true system seller if the game will come out during a month in which the system will more than likely see an inevitable boost in sales due to it being the Holiday shopping season?

All signs are pointing to the collection selling well, and as I said before consoles (even the Wii U) get pretty large boosts in sales during November and December. How wouldn't the game be a system seller (in this case meaning an increase in system sales during the month the game releases)?
 
M

MrNyarlathotep

Banned
Darkologia said:
If Sony or any other company for that matter said they achieved certain milestone but in reality they are not or almost there, is there certain group that check these things out if true? Can big companies lie about their numbers?
Am just wondering and not saying Sony/MS/Nintendo/EA/Ubisoft/Activison are doing it.
Click to expand...

IIRC MS channel stuffed the 360 to try and reach their 10 million sold* faster after their 'first to 10 million wins' statement, but it was immediately obvious in their next shipment figures what they'd been doing as shipments dropped dramatically
and they didn't even hit the 10 million figure first

(*shipped / sold to retailers)

SwiftDeath said:
Tomorrow
Click to expand...

I believe bigger / more important clients actually get the figures 24 hours before 'regular' subscribers so they have a headstart on things like PR etc.

So if anything crazy happened, you'll start seeing some PR / damage control today.
 
J

Jigorath

Banned
Bgamer90 said:
The game comes out in November -- a month in which consoles usually get a big boost in sales.

I know Titanfall isn't thought of as a "system seller" since the game didn't boost Xbox One sales by that much during the month in which the game released (regardless of many people buying the system to play Titanfall before and after the game released).

Halo MMC is coming in November. How could you determine if the game will be a true system seller if the game will come out during a month in which the system will more than likely see an inevitable boost in sales due to it being the Holiday shopping season?
Click to expand...

Titanfall was definitely a system seller. Else XBO wouldn't have done so well February and March, while completely collapsing in April and May. It'll be interesting to see what the Halo Collection does for system sales.
 
G

GoofsterStud

Member
I kind of hope Microsoft outsells the PS4 this week just to put a fire under both companies assets that there is a chance..... Hopefully increasing output as a result of the competition. If PS4 wins this month it is practically over. Which makes for boring ND reports.
 
X

x-Lundz-x

Member
Bgamer90 said:
The game comes out in November -- a month in which consoles usually get a big boost in sales.

I know Titanfall isn't thought of as a "system seller" since the game didn't boost Xbox One sales by that much during the month in which the game released (regardless of many people buying the system to play Titanfall before and after the game released).

Halo MMC is coming in November. How could you determine if the game will be a true system seller if the game will come out during a month in which the system will more than likely see an inevitable boost in sales due to it being the Holiday shopping season?

All signs are pointing to the collection selling well, and as I said before consoles (even the Wii U) get pretty large boosts in sales during November and December. How wouldn't the game be a system seller (in this case meaning an increase in system sales during the month the game releases)?
Click to expand...

If the XB1 beats the PS4 in November sales, I would place a safe bet the MCC is why.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
MrNyarlathotep said:
I believe bigger / more important clients actually get the figures 24 hours before 'regular' subscribers so they have a headstart on things like PR etc.

So if anything crazy happened, you'll start seeing some PR / damage control today.
Click to expand...

While the early reports for bigger subscribers could be possible [albeit I've never actually gotten that confirmed from someone who would know *cough*
Aqua
*cough*] I have never seen PR or damage control start on the Wednesday.

MS for instance are incredibly consistent at having their PR for NPD's on the Thursday of its release around 6 - 6:30 PM EDT. I've only been following since last November though
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
SwiftDeath said:
While the early reports for bigger subscribers could be possible [albeit I've never actually gotten that confirmed from someone who would know *cough*
Aqua
*cough*] I have never seen PR or damage control start on the Wednesday.

MS for instance are incredibly consistent at having their PR for NPD's on the Thursday of its release around 6 - 6:30 PM EDT. I've only been following since last November though
Click to expand...

This is where the whole "The Big 3 get figures on Wednesday" rumour started:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=9837800
 
T

TheRealTalker

Banned
never did my prediction for this month but looking at last month and this month currently I wouldn't be shocked if the PS4 took it again for June and later by a larger margin for July.... Seems really plausible with the releases and beta deals

I believe the XO may get a little bump for June but again lose momentum for July
 
M

MrNyarlathotep

Banned
SwiftDeath said:
MS for instance are incredibly consistent at having their PR for NPD's on the Thursday of its release around 6 - 6:30 PM EDT. I've only been following since last November though
Click to expand...

MS also officially announced the kinect unbundled Xbone the day before Mays (April) NPD figures were released to the public.
 
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